Jahmyr Gibbs was the second-most productive points per reception (PPR) running back a season ago (21.4 PPG) and posted nine top-10 finishes. That run of greatness included four top-2 finishes in a season where Saquon Barkley was flirting with history, Derrick Henry was scoring every week, and various other options at the position were having massive seasons.
Gibbs is unique in an era of production. He jumps off the screen with seemingly every touch – does that mean he deserves to be in the 1.01 conversation this year?
Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Outlook
I write for a living, and yet, I’m already running out of superlatives for a kid who is just 23 years of age. In Gibbs’ entire lifetime, not his playing career, his time on planet Earth, there have been two running backs to post multiple seasons with at least 50 catches and 10 rushing touchdowns while averaging at least five years per carry.
- LaDainian Tomlinson (2003 and 2006)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (2023-24)
The floor/ceiling combination for him is difficult to comprehend. His worst finish, while playing a position that results in missed time throughout games due to the nature of the car crashes they take part in, was RB25.
Sit back and enjoy all 20 of Jahmyr Gibbs’ touchdowns last season 🍿 pic.twitter.com/X7yQuKfwxr
— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔇𝔢𝔱𝔯𝔬𝔦𝔱 𝔗𝔦𝔪𝔢𝔰 📰 (@the_det_times) June 28, 2025
His basement production week was still worthy of being in your lineup, putting him on par with some of the greatest per-game fantasy producers in the sport.
That week? It was a short work week as his Detroit Lions played the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving and he was, to some degree, scripted out due to a 16-0 halftime lead. David Montgomery has 12 more rush attempts in that short rest game (Gibbs was +13 the week prior, making this a lower projected volume spot going in), and that fueled an underwhelming final fantasy box score.
Did I mention that, in this doom-and-gloom scenario, Gibbs totaled 104 scrimmage yards?
The only active players with more touchdowns through two NFL seasons are Alvin Kamara and Jonathan Taylor, both of whom had their shine as a poster boy of fantasy football. Gibbs is in that conversation, and with him changing his number this offseason from 26 to 0, a move that unofficially adds 17% agility to his profile, he has a strong case to be the first name called at PPR fantasy drafts.
Who Should Be The 1.01 in 2025?
For the record, I think if you simulated the 2025 regular season 1,000 times, Gibbs would lead the way in number of instances in which he finished as not only the top scoring running back in the game, but the top scoring FLEX player.
I just don’t have it ranked that way.
Maybe I should.
Bijan Robinson currently sits atop my 2025 wish list. Not because I think he is any better than Gibbs or that he is in a better position to succeed, but because of the unknown.
I’d argue that Gibbs has run about as hot as humanly possible through two career seasons. He’s played for a top-5 offense (per our Offense+ grading system) in both seasons and has benefited from continuity. He’s been able to largely stay healthy and to find the end zone plenty of times despite 25 rushing scores during those two seasons in 28 games from Montgomery. He hasn’t been impacted by the target earning abilities of Amon-Ra St. Brown or the potential for Jameson Williams to end a possession after a single play with a long score.
He’s great, but it’s also possible that he has run into a good set of circumstances thus far.
Robinson hasn’t had that luxury.
In his two years, he’s had a coaching change, average offensive line play, and three different primary quarterbacks, none of whom have been able to lead an offense full of potential in nearly that way that Jared Goff has in Detroit.
In theory, those are knocks against Robinson, and they are in the past. Looking forward, he has a second season under Raheem Morris, an apparent commitment to Michael Penix Jr. as the man under center, and proof of concept as to what is possible when he is featured. Following the Week 12 bye last season …
- Week 13 vs. Chargers: 32 touches, 135 yards, 1 rush TD
- Week 14 at Vikings: 24 touches, 101 yards, 1 rush TD
- Week 15 at Raiders: 23 touches, 127 yards
- Week 16 vs. Giants: 24 touches, 103 yards, 2 rush TDs
- Week 17 at Commanders: 20 touches, 98 yards, 2 rush TDs
- Week 18 vs. Panthers: 30 touches, 173 yards, 2 rush TDs
For the skeptics in the back, I hear you. “That’s a helluva run, but look at those opponents!”
That’s a fair point, but settle down. The Dirty Birds have seven games this season against teams that ranked bottom-10 a year ago in our Defense+ metric – it’s not as if a murderer’s row stands in their way this season and if the offense as a whole takes a step forward, shootout potential is very possible in those games (the Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, and Indianapolis Colts could all be opponents that play in ultra-fantasy friendly styles this season).
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Gibbs deserves to be in the conversation with Robinson, Barkley, and your favorite Tier 1 receiver (Ja’Marr Chase for most, but I’m going to be pushing Nico Collins propaganda as loudly as possible). Just because that’s not how I have it ranked doesn’t mean it’s wrong – it just means you’re going to lose to me if we are playing in the same league.
Detroit is fertile ground for elite fantasy production, and no matter how you split hairs at the tippy top of the board, their RB1 is in for another massive season.
Cameron Sheath’s Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Projection
Jahmyr Gibbs was hot on the heels of Saquon Barkley in 2024 and is a leading candidate to be crowned RB1 this coming season. The loss of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has impacted the draft stock of the entire Lions offense, but Gibbs should be right in the mix regardless.
While on paper, Barkley should be the favorite to repeat as the top running back in fantasy, back-to-back seasons as the RB1 overall are incredibly rare. Also, from Weeks 2-18 last season, it was Gibbs who led all running backs in fantasy points per game.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
While his four-touchdown game in Week 18 didn’t count for fantasy, it was in a winner-takes-all matchup with the Minnesota Vikings for both the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the conference.
Gibbs is also still on an upward trajectory in terms of usage, having seen his carries increase from 182 in 2023 to 250 in 2024. If that trend continues, Gibbs could be the most important player in fantasy football this year. It’s impossible to know what the Lions offense will look like; coaching changes and an offensive line reshuffle are both legitimate reasons to pause. But Gibbs is still the most likely candidate to usurp Barkley this season.
