The offseason is the most enjoyable part of playing dynasty fantasy football. During the summer, you get to evaluate your roster to decide which pieces of your team are pillars and which can be moved to upgrade positions or acquire draft picks. The PFSN Trade Analyzer is an essential tool to make sure fantasy managers have a grasp of player valuation.
Throughout the summer, we will break down some of the most frequent names input into the trade analyzer to determine whether the player is being valued correctly. Today’s subject is Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes Has Not Been Elite the Past 2 Seasons
We cannot start a conversation about Mahomes’ fantasy value without acknowledging his 2018 fantasy season.
That year, Mahomes finished as the QB1 in fantasy points per game (26.1). That is the second-highest single-season point total by a quarterback since 2015. That season, Mahomes completed 383 of 580 passes (66.0%) with 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns, with 12 interceptions, and was the league’s MVP.
Mahomes would be the QB1 for a second time in 2020, although with fewer points per game (25.0). He attempted 588 passes that season, throwing 4,740 yards and 38 touchdowns with six interceptions.
Mahomes was the QB1 in dynasty for several years despite his lack of rushing upside. However, it’s been a while since we got that version of him.
Fantasy managers have been frustrated by Mahomes’ production in the last two seasons. During that time, he’s averaged a 67.3% completion percentage, 4,055.5 yards, and 26.5 touchdowns with 12.5 interceptions.
Over the last three years, the Chiefs have evolved from a pass-centric offense that wanted to vertically attack opposing defenses to a team that wants to control the clock with quick passes and chain-moving plays. That style of play is excellent for fans of wins and losses in real football, but detrimental to fantasy managers.
Despite owning one of the NFL‘s strongest arms and improvisational abilities, Mahomes has transformed his game to maximize his Super Bowl window. Over the last two seasons, he’s had a lower touchdown rate (4.5%) than his career average (5.9%). He’s also produced a lower yards per attempt (6.9 compared to 7.8 for his career).
The veteran quarterback has averaged 288.9 passing yards per game for his career, yet has failed to average 262+ yards per game in a season since 2022.
The shift in offensive philosophy has nerfed Mahomes in fantasy. He finished as the QB10 in fantasy points per game (minimum 10 games) in 2023 (17.5 ppg) and the QB11 in 2024 (17.7). Additionally, Kirk Cousins (three) had more top-10 fantasy finishes than Mahomes (two) during the 2024 season.
The Chiefs have become more of a power run team inside the red zone. From 2020 to 2021, Mahomes produced exceptional touchdown totals because of his passing efficiency inside the opponent’s 20-yard line (28.2% of his red-zone attempts resulted in a touchdown). In 2022, that number dipped slightly (27.6%) and again in 2023 (26.1%) before cratering in 2024 (22.2%).
Mahomes is arguably playing football at one of the highest levels of any NFL player. However, his willingness to play within the confines of his offense has also destroyed his fantasy appeal.
Should Fantasy Managers Buy the Dip on the Best QB in Football?
Dynasty managers are starting to panic. This summer, Mahomes has been shipped off of PFSN user rosters at the 10th-highest rate among qualified players (58.5% of deals involving Mahomes see our fans part ways with the future Hall of Famer).
In reality, the logic is sound. Kansas City has a solid group of pass catchers in its offense, but they are best utilized close to the line of scrimmage or in the slot. The one exception to this could be second-year receiver Xavier Worthy, who famously recorded the fastest 40-yard dash (4.21) in NFL Combine history.
However, having Worthy didn’t help Mahomes rediscover his form as a deep passer last season. The veteran QB ranked 36th among quarterbacks in 20+ yard throw rate (8.4%). Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Gardner Minshew II, and Tua Tagovailoa were the only players behind him.
Additionally, Mahomes struggled when he did attack down the field. He was 34th in 20+ yard completion percentage (26.5%), ranking ahead of only Cooper Rush, Anthony Richardson, Mac Jones, Drew Lock, Spencer Rattler, and Deshaun Watson.
Every Patrick Mahomes throw of 20+ air yards from a clean pocket in 2024: pic.twitter.com/aToYlgdCLM
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 19, 2025
If Mahomes isn’t consistently hitting big plays down the field or putting up big TD totals, he loses a significant amount of value in dynasty football. The passing volume will still make him a top-12 quarterback, but the lack of touchdowns caps his ceiling as a top-six player at his best.
Additionally, Mahomes is a strong tactical scrambler but hardly has the speed or agility to generate fantasy points consistently as a rusher.
In fantasy football, we often fixate on an excellent season from years past instead of evaluating the information directly in front of us. Mahomes is a wonderful example of that.
Dynasty managers value him at a higher level based on what he has done in the past (two QB1 overall finishes and a 26+ point season) than he does today. And while the Chiefs could go back to the style of offense that generated all of those fantasy points, it’s far more likely that they stick with the formula that has gotten them to three straight Super Bowls.
Mahomes is still a back-end QB1, but if you can get more value than that from another manager in your league (or want to use him to take a shot on a higher upside player like Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy and draft picks), then he can be moved without reservation.