Every fantasy football season brings a handful of players whose perceived value doesn’t align with what they’re likely to deliver. Whether it’s inflated expectations, shifting team dynamics, or past production boosting their reputation, some players end up going higher in drafts than their projected output warrants.
This article breaks down those names, focusing on why their current ADPs may be too steep and when — if at all — they become worth targeting in your draft.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill’s production fell off sharply in 2024, due in part to his injuries and Tua Tagovailoa’s. Still, as he enters his age-31 season, the concerns extend beyond injuries. Hill’s game relies heavily on blazing speed, and that burst inevitably starts to fade with age.
His usage also slipped last year — his target share dropped from 37.8% in 2023 to just 24.1%. The efficiency wasn’t there either, with his yards per catch falling from 15.1 to 11.8 and his yards after catch plummeting from 690 to 306.
Adding to the uncertainty is the lingering question of his chemistry with Tagovailoa following Hill’s pointed comments at the end of last season. While it’s possible Hill could suit up elsewhere before or during the season, that level of unpredictability makes his current ADP of 25 a risky investment in drafts.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
The addition of Justin Fields is likely to hurt Breece Hall’s fantasy production. Fields is a high-volume runner who tends to keep the ball himself in designed and scramble situations, limiting opportunities for running backs. He rarely checks down to receivers, a dynamic that previously boosted Hall’s value as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Last season, Hall averaged a career-low 4.2 YPC on 209 rushes for 876 yards, with a 21.3% stuff percentage, ranking 30th among 40 qualifying running backs. The offensive line, which earned a 64.0 (D) grade in 2024, struggled with the run game. The RBs averaged just 0.78 YBC/rush (23rd), with an RBWR that is worse (29th).
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Between head coach Aaron Glenn’s commitment to split the backfield workload and the Jets’ continued offensive struggles, I’d be cautious of drafting Hall in 2025 unless he falls closer to round five or six.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Mark Andrews saw a career-low target share in 2024, but still managed to find the end zone 11 times. In all likelihood (pun intended), only one of those numbers is going to see some regression towards the mean this season. With the emergence of Isaiah Likely, Zay Flowers’ continued growth, the offseason addition of DeAndre Hopkins, and Andrews now another year older, it’s going to be tough for him to remain in the top tier of tight ends.
Andrews saw his target share drop to 15% (20th), and he finished 20th in targets as well, 14th in receptions, and 9th in yards — all of which are more telling indicators than the touchdown outlier that saved his overall fantasy output last year.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield had an outstanding 2024 season, posting career-high numbers in touchdowns (41), passing yards (4,500), and fantasy PPG (22.3), good enough for a QB4 finish. But he scored 15 more touchdowns than in any other season, so he will probably come back down to earth in the upcoming campaign — especially with one of his go-to wideouts, Chris Godwin, potentially starting the season on the PUP list.
Baker Mayfield had a touchdown rate of 7.2% last year.
There’ve been 15 quarterbacks since 2011 with next-season data who were +/- 0.5% in TD rate to Mayfield’s 2024 number. Every single one scored fewer fantasy points the following year. The group averaged a drop of 4.2 PPG.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) July 10, 2025
Throw in the fact that he’ll also have a new play-caller for the fourth straight season, and I’d try to steer clear of drafting Mayfield this season unless he falls closer to pick 100 or so.
