Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the face of the Seattle Seahawks last season, and he was a common name on fantasy football teams that succeeded at the highest of levels. There is no argument as to how good he was a season ago, but there is some important context worth considering as the industry moves him into the top tier of assets this summer.
Is Jaxon Smith-Njigba Overrated?
Football is a hard game and putting up insane fantasy football numbers on a consistent basis is even more difficult. It’s very possible to play great and not put up numbers the way Smith-Njigba did for the Super Bowl champion Seahawks last season. That’s a fact. Skill, of course, is the driving factor in these outlier seasons, but even the best in the sport run at times and asking JSN to repeat what he did a year ago, which is basically what you’re doing by locking him in as a member of the Tier 1 flex players, is difficult.
Over the past five seasons, we’ve seen a WR outproduce expectations by at least 27% 12 times (JSN in 2025: +28.4%), and no name is on that list twice. Starting with the biggest overachiever …
- 2023 Brandon Aiyuk
- 2021 Deebo Samuel
- 2023 Nico Collins
- 2021 Ja’Marr Chase
- 2021 Tyler Locket
- 2024 Terry McLaurin
- 2025 Puka Nacua
- 2024 Lad McConkey
- 2025 Smith-Njigba
- 2021 Mike Evans
- 2021 Cooper Kupp
Of course, your eye draws to Puka Nacua also being on this list, but he plays for an offense with more projected pass volume, giving me confidence that any natural fall in efficiency can be offset to a degree by raw opportunity count.
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I’m not the least bit confident that is the case in Seattle (28th in PROE last season). They spent first round draft capital on a running back and had tremendous success with the ‘less-is-more’ approach for Sam Darnold last season (did you know that, including the Super Bowl run, he didn’t have a 25-yard completion in four of his final five games?).
Seattle Rankings, 2025
- 3rd in yards per first down play
- 2nd in opponent average drive distance
- 3rd in special teams EPA
Those things may not tie directly to their WR1, but they all factor in. The first down success allows them to keep the defense on its toes, the short opponent drives gets the ball back to this offense within earshot of the end zone, and the special teams shorten the field. It’s not crazy to think that this team could take a step back in all of those categories this season, and if that is the case, a 100-1130-6 season (what JSN posted in 2024) is much more likely than the video game 119-1793-10 from a season ago.
Smith-Njigba is great; we know that, but to operate as a Tier 1 receiver, history suggests that you need help more often than not. Chase and Nacua have that support with a bullet, and I’d argue that Amon-Ra St. Brown does as well. Every ranking system is going to have a Big 5 this draft season … I’d be careful in assuming that is as cut-and-dry as it seems: give me those first four as a clear cut above the field.
