The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Atlanta Falcons players heading into their matchup with the Washington Commanders to help you craft a winning lineup.
Michael Penix Jr., QB
Michael Penix has thrown more touchdowns to the wrong team than the right one over the past two weeks, and that’s generally an indicator of poor fantasy performance.
The pick-6 last week came on an attempted dump-off to Bijan Robinson because … well, why would you expect anything different?
This season, Penix has misfired on 15 of 17 deep throws. That helps explain the Drake London struggles, and things are going to get a lot worse for all involved if he can at least make defenses consider the idea that they are at risk downfield.
I’ve lost hope that Penix will consistently return QB2 value, and now I’m just hoping he can do enough to stabilize his elite teammates.
Tyler Allgeier, RB
You’re reaching if you want Tyler Allgeier as a plug-in, get-me-12 touches flex as it is, especially if the game script works well without him. He touched the ball twice during the beat down that Atlanta received in Carolina on Sunday, and this floor/ceiling combination just isn’t appealing for an inconsistent team like this.
Allgeier is a very valuable handcuff to Bijan Robinson, but that’s it.
Bijan Robinson, RB
The game just looks easy for Bijan Robinson.
He has a 25+ yard touch in all three games this season, and last week, it came on a third-down screen pass that was as basic as it gets. There was nothing exotic, but the play was run on time, and that meant Robinson was attacking the Panthers while running downhill.
Despite the 1-2 start for Atlanta, Robinson has been a top 12 producer at the position in all three weeks and stands to improve as the environment around him stabilizes.
Gaining 111 yards on an afternoon in which your team fails to score is no small accomplishment, and as long as this offense recovers, Robinson still has a good chance to finish the year as fantasy’s top-scoring running back.
Darnell Mooney, WR
Danrell Mooney already has more end zone looks this season than last, and we saw him used in a high-upside, vertical role last week against the Panthers (126.5 air yards, a number he topped just three times in 2021).
In theory, this profile looks good, but the deeper you get into your bet on strong Michael Penix play, the more risk you take.
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I have no problem with rostering Mooney, but he won’t be in the flex conversation until we see some consistency from the QB position in Atlanta. In the scope of Week 4, I’d rather play Calvin Ridley/Chris Olave types where I can at least use volume as a path of overcoming quarterback limitations.
Drake London, WR
I’m not sounding the alarm on Drake London just yet, but I’m making note of where the alarm is.
London hasn’t cleared 55 receiving yards in a game this season and has more fumbles than touchdowns. I’m encouraged by the 27 targets through three weeks, and he’s clearly the player this pass game is slanted toward (four targets on the first drive last week), but I don’t care about the ingredients in the fridge if you don’t know what to do with them.
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I expected more from Michael Penix in the early going this season (one touchdown on 99 pass attempts); it really is that simple. Not all young QBs follow the same developmental curve, and that’s why I’m not yet seeking trade partners, but I’m certainly concerned.
This isn’t a bad get-right spot, and with the bye on deck, there’s a decent chance that everything is as it should be by the middle of October. You’re playing London this week, and we can circle back ahead of the Week 6 primetime battle against the Bills for a value check.
Kyle Pitts Sr., TE
This guy.
Kyle Pitts posts a monster rookie season, and we all fall for it, only to get burned for three years.
Kyle Pitts is the seventh-highest scoring TE after Week 1 this season. We all fall for it.
Kyle Pitts sees the first target of Week 3 in a plus-matchup against the Panthers.
OK, so maybe that last micro example is a little small, but you get the idea. After that TE7- finish against the Buccaneers in the opener, Pitts doesn’t have a finish better than 17th at the position, failing to reach 40 receiving yards on both occasions.
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The shortened depth of target (4.8 yards, down from 8.7 last season) should give us a reasonable floor to bank on from this prospect that we once viewed as having access to an elite ceiling, but it really hasn’t.
These 5-7 target games are going to keep piling up. Still, unless Penix takes a massive step forward, we are looking at another disappointing season from Pitts that sees him finish outside of starting lineups with far more consistency than he punishes you for ignoring him.
The versatility of Robinson, along with the health of Mooney, makes Pitts far from a priority in the pass game.
He’s a streamer and has fallen behind two AFC East tight ends and is my TE2 in this game.
