The fantasy football landscape shifts dramatically after Week 1, as unexpected performances and emerging storylines reshape our expectations for the season ahead. Some players exceed all projections, while others leave managers scratching their heads, wondering if early concerns were justified or merely a case of growing pains.
Thursday night’s Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup could provide crucial clarity on several key start/sit situations for both NFC powerhouses. Get ready to dive deep into the developments that could make or break your fantasy team’s Week 15 performance.
Atlanta Falcons
Kirk Cousins, QB
Kirk Cousins has three touchdowns (and three picks) on his 138 pass attempts this season and has completed just 18-of-49 passes when throwing past the sticks (four-of-13 on Sunday against the Seahawks).
I’m not sure what the Falcons do long-term under center, but it’s very possible that the answer for 2026 isn’t currently on the roster, and how we view the pass catches, not so much Bijan Robinson, will hinge, to varying degrees, on what they do in that regard.
For the rest of 2025, you can bank on getting well below average play the rest of the way. Tampa Bay’s defensive structure encourages opponents to pass, so I hope that Cousins can reach 235 passing yards for the first time this season, but it’s far from a guarantee.
Bijan Robinson, RB
Most people will look at Robinson’s 20 carries against the Seahawks last weekend and be disappointed with 86 yards and zero scores. I can’t excuse the fumble that he lost, but with nine of those attempts picking up 5+ yards, he was running well against one of the best units in the sport.
Tampa Bay locked him up back in Week 1 to an even greater degree (12 carries for 24 yards), but they had no answer for him out of the backfield (6-100-1).
Why would this week be any different?
The Bucs are built to deny you easy yards between the tackles, but that leaves them vulnerable to this type of freakish athlete that can turn the corner on anyone.
I’ll go ahead and say it: I think we get a Barry Sanders-like game from Robinson this week. The carry-by-carry recap may not look good, but throw enough punches and I’d bet on one landing in a significant way.
He’s my RB2 for Week 15, sitting behind only the great Christian McCaffrey (vs. TEN).
Tyler Allgeier, RB
Tyler Allgeier is what he always is. You can sign him up for 8-10 carries and a target with a high level of confidence.
In a perfect matchup (at Arizona, next week is under consideration), Allgeier is a dart throw with a standard role. Still, in a matchup like this, a sixth game with under six PPR points is very much in the range of projectable outcomes.
He’s not a top-40 running back for me this week. I’d rather play multiple backs on the Rams, Chargers, Giants, or Patriots.
Darnell Mooney, WR
“If you had one shot or one opportunity to seize everything you ever wanted in one moment. Would you capture it or just let it slip?”
Eminem is one of the great philosophers of this generation, and that line pretty much summed up Darnell Mooney’s Week 14.
The Falcons schemed up a vertical shot for him. They got the single coverage, and he beat it as he is one to do when given the opportunity in space. Cousins delivered the ball on time, and the 26-yard score worked to perfection.
Flag down, hat down.
Mooney stepped out of bounds and was the next player to touch the ball before establishing himself back in the field of play. No touchdown.
He finished the game with six harmless yards on four targets and has now been held under 35 yards in six of his past seven games. These fringe receivers playing alongside iffy QBs aren’t going to get many chances, and when one is wasted, it feels like the week is doomed.
We saw the connection with Cousins a season ago, and this play design implies that there is some chemistry between the two, but I can’t justify going this deep in a redraft format with my season on the line. In DFS, sure, where one spike play can pocket you a bunch of money, but in a season-long format, the risk far outweighs the reward.
I’ve got him ranked outside of the top 40 this week, in the Kayshon Boutte range.
Drake London, WR
In Weeks 9-11, Drake London was the third-highest scoring player in the sport. His 82.1 PPR points over that stretch trailed only Josh Allen (90.8) and Christian McCaffrey (87.0), leading the position by 19.2 points (Jaxon Smith-Njigba).
We know he was a star, but there are levels to these things, and he was ascending despite marginal quarterback play.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 15 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
A knee injury has cost him three consecutive games, though, and we aren’t exactly being loaded with glowing reports about his “not serious” injury. He didn’t practice at all last week, and it’s not as if this team is pushed to bring him back with their postseason hopes gone.
This profiles as one of those easy situations where you simply mirror what the professional franchise does. This would be a brutal spot to return, but with 15 of 31 Cousins targets going to Kyle Pitts Sr. or Robinson last week in New York, it’s clear that there isn’t a secondary pass catcher to take looks off the plate of London.
He’s a dynasty-building piece, and while there is some risk in trusting him after a multi-week absence whenever it comes, he’s built up enough equity for us to rely on.
Kyle Pitts Sr., TE
Here we go again.
Pitts Sr. had 68.8% of Atlanta’s first-half receiving yardage against the Seahawks last week and now has set a new season high in yards in consecutive games.
- Week 13 at Jets: 7 catches, 8 targets, 82 yards
- Week 14 vs. Seahawks: 6 catches, 10 targets 90 yards
Cousins is limited in a lot of ways, but targeting his big tight end doesn’t appear to be one of them. In Week 13, Pitts owned a 4.3-yard aDOT with zero deep targets, but on Sunday, his aDOT spiked to 12.1 yards with four deep shots.
Is Cousins making him the player we thought he could be?
Enjoy it while it lasts. Pitts has a 20+ yard reception in six of his past seven, making up for the fact that he hasn’t scored since September. It’s not going to feel comfortable, but this is a pass funnel spot, and that has me ranking the former first-round pick as my TE6 this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield, QB
Baker Mayfield’s shoulder injury didn’t have him on the final injury report and didn’t seem to be prohibitive against the Saints. He was with his legs (six carries for 40 yards) and his aDOT was inline with his seasonal average, but the just weren’t connected nearly consistently enough in a favorable spot.
In theory, 60.7% of his targets going to Emeka Egbuka or Chris Godwin is a good thing. Most weeks, that’s a good strategy. But on Sunday, his 17 balls thrown in that direction netted just 70 touchdownless yards.
Heck, after the scripted first drive, he was 9-of-25 for 62 yards with an interception. Mayfield has been held without multiple TD passes in four straight and has checked in under seven yards per pass in seven in a row.
The 19+ rushing yards in four straight games can be what elevates him from good to great, but without volume in the passing game, we aren’t talking about a fantasy starter.
It hurts because he was helpful in the middle of the season, but Mayfield isn’t a top 12 QB for me this week. If Mike Evans is close to full strength, you could squint and see enough upside to roll the dice if you’re an underdog in your matchup, but I’m skeptical at best, even if he has all of his weapons on the field.
Bucky Irving, RB
I sneakily think that the Bucs are slow-playing the full unleashing of Lucky Irving until they play the Panthers for their must-win games down the stretch.
As it is, we are getting appetizers. We saw him post four touches (two carries and two catches) on Tampa Bay’s first drive last week, a drive that ended with a 24-yard touchdown reception that was sold perfectly by Mayfield.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
I think they are confident that they have a game-changer at the position and want to ensure they have the best version of him when it matters most.
We saw him hobble off with an ankle injury in the first half last week, an injury that didn’t cause much missed time, but it’s another data point as to how this coaching staff could look to manage him through this week.
Even with that suspicion, Irving is an RB1 for me this week. In three career games against the Dirty Birdy, he’s caught all 13 of his targets, and like we saw last week, it only takes a crafty design to turn one of those looks into a double-digit point play.
Rachaad White, RB
It’s a complicated spot, but if you need to throw a bit of a flex dart this week, Rachaad White isn’t that bad of an option.
We saw him get 11 carries (12 touches) last week against the Saints in a tight game, the type of script we assumed would work away from him.
The Bucs may be slow-playing the whole run out of Bucky Irving for the season-deciding games with the Panthers, and if that’s the case, we could very well be looking at another double-digit touch game from White.
Atlanta has the seventh-worst success rate against running backs this season, something that could allow multiple Tampa Bay RBs to hit the top 30 on a short week. There’s obvious risk involved, but I’d flex White over an Alec Pierce type this week.
Sean Tucker, RB
Sean Tucker punched in a score against the Saints last week, his sixth of the season, but his usage suggests that chasing a touchdown this week or at any point while this backfield is whole is a fool’s errand.
Buccaneer RB Snap Data, Week 14
- Rachaad White: 49.3% snaps, 12 touches
- Bucky Irving: 49.3% snaps, 17 touches
- Tucker: 15.9% snaps, 7 touches
It’s nice when it works, but let’s remember that we are looking at a player with 340 scrimmage yards on the season, 140 of which came in that breakout game in Buffalo with Irving shelved.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
If Irving were to go down, Tucker’s stock shoots up to that of an RB2, and that’s why he should remain held on the back end of rosters, but you’re doing so with the understanding that standalone value is a long shot at best.
Chris Godwin Jr., WR
Godwin made three chunk plays in Week 13 and ripped off a 21-yard catch-and-run on the first drive last week against the Saints.
He looks healthy, and while I think there’s some risk involved in every Buccaneer at this point, understanding that their fate essentially relies on the two remaining games against the Panthers, I’m comfortable starting him in this spot.
We saw these two teams play a pair of bonkers games last season, and even if that’s not the case, a healthy Godwin against a defense that has allowed a WR to reach 16 PPR points in seven straight is good enough for me.
Egbuka is struggling right now, and strong play from Godwin stands to unlock him. An Evans return is also possible, but that’s a different role than the one we’re looking at here. I’m banking on 6-8 efficient targets, and that should be enough to land him as a top 30 play in all formats.
Emeka Egbuka, WR
Call it a rookie wall, call it regression to the mean, call it whatever you want, but our Egbuka stocks have gone the way of GameStop.
The rookie scored five times in his first five games as a pro, and we were wondering just how special this season could be for the 19th pick in the draft.
He’s scored just one touchdown since and has managed to haul in just nine of his 25 targets over his past three games. He proved on Sunday that his route running is still just as sharp as it was back in September, dusting a cornerback in the fourth quarter, but the Mayfield pass was a touch high, and he was unable to make a play that he makes 99% of the time, resulting in a fourth straight dud performance.
Evans might play this week, and he might well hold the key.
Production With Evans On The Field
- Production Relative to Expectation: +45.8%
- Touchdowns / Targets: 3/17
- Slot Rate: 38.3%
Production With Evans Off The Field
- Production Relative to Expectation: -15.3%
- Touchdowns / Targets: 3 / 93
- Slot Rate: 25.5%
We are obviously dealing with a small sample, but should the significant perimeter receiver return this week, counter to your intuition, I’ll be moving Egbuka up from a middling flex to a low-end WR2 in what should be a decent spot for this offense to look the part of a playoff team.
Mike Evans, WR
Evans fell with a broken clavicle in Week 7, but there were whispers last weekend that his return could come on Thursday night.
I think I’ll wait, if at all possible.
I understand that it might not be, but with this being the first game of a whole week, hopefully, you have a healthier option that you can trust. The Bucs travel to Carolina next week, and if we get a full snap share on Thursday night, we can have an honest discussion, but after nearly two months off for the 32-year-old, how comfortable can you really be?
More importantly, how comfortable can you really be even if he’s close to full strength?
MORE: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool
Evans has produced 36.4% under expectations in the four appearances he’s made this season, turning 32 targets into just 140 yards and one touchdown. These two teams opened the season against one another, and Mayfield threw for just 167 yards on 32 attempts.
Godwin wasn’t active in that game, but Egbuka was effective (67 yards and two scores), and Sterling Shepard earned a 20% target share. If you wanted to play Evans over a Colts (at SEA) or Packers (at DEN) receiver, I’d understand it, but I do think the risk level is similar, and we aren’t sure of exactly what the reward looks like.
Cade Otton, TE
Cade Otton has been held under 25 receiving yards in three straight games, and the healthier this pass-catching nucleus gets, the less that is required from the tight end position.
Evans is making progress, Godwin is standing upright, and Irving is being utilized with an eye toward a bellcow role sooner rather than later. Otton has a good hold on this offense, and that’ll keep him on the field, but playing time alone assures you of nothing.
He doesn’t have a 30-yard catch or a touchdown this season: the single-target upside is low, and with the path to volume evaporating, he’s not a top 20 play at the position for me.
