Fantasy football players often overreact to single-game performances, but Week 1 results require careful context before making roster decisions. The Philadelphia Eagles’ conservative approach against Dallas created some misleading stat lines that don’t necessarily predict future performance. Understanding the difference between variance and trend changes is crucial for effectively managing your lineup. Here’s how to evaluate the key Eagles players after their season opener.
Jalen Hurts, QB
Jalen Hurts looked spry on Thursday night, which fueled his fantasy value. You’ll see his league-leading 15th multi-rush TD game since 2021 in the box score and assume that the “Hurts Hurt” was in full effect, but neither score resulted from the most unstoppable play in professional sports. He led the game in rushing (62 yards on 14 carries) and completed 82.6% of his passes against the Micah Parsons-less Cowboys on a banner night.
And yet, I was left wanting more.
In the win, just 13% of his throws traveled 10+ yards downfield (2024: 30.2%). You could argue that Philadelphia didn’t need him to absorb the risk of deeper throws or that this resulted from how Dallas defended him. You wouldn’t be wrong, but for fantasy purposes, this isn’t the optimal way to go about your business when you have the receiving tandem that the Eagles do.
I’m tracking, not acting. Not yet, at least.
Patrick Mahomes’ aDOT has decreased every season, and he’s moved from fantasy GOAT to goat at times, but he obviously doesn’t come in with the built-in rushing equity of Hurts. I have difficulty seeing Hurts live up to his Tier 1 status if this is more than a flash in the pan.
Over 19 minutes of Jalen Hurts highlights for your enjoyment. pic.twitter.com/7EKdOW6kYI
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) February 26, 2025
For Week 2 purposes, I’m not sweating it. Hurts has cleared 15 fantasy points in all 12 career games played on extended rest (20+ points in nine, 23.0 PPG), and he just comes preloaded with too many ways to matter.
It’s not always pretty, and I expect the Chiefs to show better in this contest than they did against Philly in the Super Bowl, but Hurts is a no-brainer start this week, even if a red flag presented itself on Thursday night.
Saquon Barkley, RB
The man touches the ball 22 times, scores, and offers a highlight play, yet we are disappointed.
After the storybook 2024 season, the bar might be a little high for Saquon Barkley. That said, five targets were good to see (tied his highest output from last season), and his three carries inside the 10-yard line matched his second-best showing from a year ago.
The Tushy Push will be a pain for as long as it’s legal, and I thought Will Shipley looked good before exiting, so maybe we won’t get a repeat of 2024 … that was always going to be the case. The matchup isn’t ideal — 25 carries for only 57 yards in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs, with gains on just 76% of attempts and no runs over 10 yards. Still, his volume and role in this offense keep him firmly in RB1 territory.
Again, we are complaining about a game that 96% of players would be happy with.
Relax. The usage around the goal line was why Barkley wasn’t a part of the 1.01 conversation this summer. Still, the volume is why he never fell outside of the first round, and if he’s going to be used in space as a pass catcher more this season than last, I don’t think you end up regretting this selection.
Tank Bigsby, RB
After being an afterthought in Week 1 (it took mop-up duty for him even to approach one-third of the snaps that Travis Etienne played), Tank Bigsby was shipped off to Philadelphia on Monday.
Good thing for his career, bad thing for his fantasy managers.
Instead of competing for a lead role in a potentially wide-open Liam Coen offense, he’s, at best, a committee handcuff in an offense with the premier rushing TD vulture of a generation.
That’s not great.
If you want to track Will Shipley’s health, I’ll allow it. But with AJ Dillon also in the mix, Bigsby hitting your lineup is a parlay I’m unwilling to take.
Explore trade options with Barkley’s manager as a courtesy, but realistically, I’m okay with cutting ties if a player has an upside on your wire.
A.J. Brown, WR
Well, that wasn’t very fun.
A.J. Brown failed to earn multiple targets in an NFL game for the third time in his career, the first since his rookie season with the Titans.
One catch. Eight yards.
That’s all he gave you, and that one reception came after 58 minutes of suffering to help Philly ice this game. This happening in Week 1 is obviously less than ideal, but the idea that something like this could happen shouldn’t be a surprise.
The Eagles are a low-volume passing attack, carrying a low floor for all involved. Last season, Brown and DeVonta Smith were top-15 PPR receivers; between them, they had five games with single-digit point totals.
It doesn’t usually happen on the same night as Thursday, but these duds happen. I need you not to overreact simply because it happened in Week 1, and Brown is now pacing for 136 yards this season.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 2 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
As much as the city of Philadelphia wanted this game, I think it’s safe to say that the organization is probably putting a little more emphasis on this Super Bowl rematch than a Week 1 showdown with a franchise stuck in the mud. Brown scored in each of his final three games last regular season. He scored in the NFC Title game against the Commanders and in the Super Bowl.
When the Eagles place a high value on a game, #11 has a way of getting his. There were three instances last season in which Brown didn’t finish the week as a top-40 performer at the position, and you still profited from counting on him weekly because of his raw ability.
Trust the process here. You didn’t draft anyone, thinking that 17 games of greatness were lucky. Be thankful to have this dud on the way, understanding that more good than bad is likely coming.
But yes, this sort of thing does happen to the Eagles’ pass game, and it likely won’t be the last time it does. You signed up for variance, and you’re getting it. Buckle up.
DeVonta Smith, WR
In recent memory, this might be the least talked about sub-5 PPR point performance by a player started across the board.
DeVonta Smith opened his 2025 with an airball against the Cowboys, turning his three targets into just 4.6 fantasy points. Low-volume games are likely to occur in Philadelphia due to their offensive structure, but the four total air yards were a little painful to see (2024: 68.6 per game).
JALEN TO DEVONTA DEEP TOUCHDOWN!
📺: #SBLIX on FOX
📱: Tubi + NFL app pic.twitter.com/OTFwM3v8Fb— NFL (@NFL) February 10, 2025
It’s not that Smith lacks the wiggle to turn short targets into game-breaking plays; he very much does, but he ranked third in points per deep target a year ago. Even if it’s just a token target to loosen up the defense, running Smith vertically makes a ton of sense and plays a part in fueling what we hope is another season as a strong fantasy WR2.
We saw him haul in four of five targets against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last season, and a 46-yard score highlighted that performance. So no, I’m not pivoting off of Smith, but I am a little concerned about the target type.
He’s never going to be a volume target earner in Philadelphia, making his fantasy stock more sensitive to any change in role. Again, I’m not asking him to be DeSean Jackson from yesteryear for this franchise, but establishing the threat of him is vital for his upside, considering that his floor will always be low in an offense built around the ground game.
Dallas Goedert, TE
Dallas Goedert posting a 35% target share (including the first target of the season) for the defending champs certainly wasn’t on my Week 1 bingo card, but here we are.
I think it’s a nothing burger.
The Birds adopted an ultra-conservative game plan, a weird trend that developed during the Jalen Hurts era.
Hurts’ lowest career aDOT games:
- Week 1, 2025: 4.9 yards
- Week 1, 2022: 4.1 yards
- Week 5, 2022: 3.8 yards
- Week 1, 2021: 3.7 yards
Goedert is a good player, but he’s not special. The two receivers in this run-oriented offense are special, and assuming that Hurts’ throw depth moves in the direction it has in years past, the tight end’s stock is set to fall sooner than later (there’s a reason he’s never cleared five touchdown receptions in a season or reached 60 catches).
I’d be shocked if there is a sell-high thread to chase here, but it’s all contextual. This summer, I had Goedert ranked alongside half a dozen other tight ends as coin-flip streaming options, and that remains my stance: I believe he is essentially the definition of replacement level at the position.
If you can package him with the last player on your roster for a handcuff running back with substantial contingent value, you pull the trigger and figure out the tight end position weekly.
