The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Philadelphia Eagles players heading into their matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jalen Hurts, QB
Is it just me, or is it hard to find an elite quarterback we truly feel good about these days?
Jalen Hurts finished Friday’s loss with reasonable counting numbers (261 total yards with a pair of touchdown passes to A.J. Brown). Still, one scoring drive came with the game essentially already decided.
No one cares for fantasy purposes, but you get the idea: things just don’t look the same as they did a year ago. Hurts has completed under 58% of his passes in three of his past four and largely doesn’t look comfortable in dictating this offense through the air.
The Tush Push touchdowns are always a factor, so the fact that he’s cleared 30 rushing yards in three straight is encouraging. This is a difficult matchup, but it feels like this unit is more about internal battles than about how the opponent approaches them. Hurts’ overarching issues have less impact on value, and that’s why you can continue to bank on him as a fine QB1, even if the current ceiling doesn’t match what you had in mind back in August.
Saquon Barkley, RB
The Eagles missed a chance to send a message on Black Friday against the Bears, and they are running out of time to rediscover the high-end form it’ll take to repeat.
It goes without saying that Saquon Barkley is a huge part of that. He dropped a screen pass late last week (inconsequential to the result of the game, but every opportunity matters in our world) and was held without an 18+ yard run for the 11th time in 12 games.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 14 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
You’re aware of the struggles. You’re aware that he has just two rushing TDs since opening the season with one in each of the first two games. You’re aware that he has six games with single-digit receiving yards and that this offense is simply average at best.
The Rams’ defense is stout and certainly not a get-right spot. That said, an extended week for this team as a whole can’t be a bad thing, and Barkley averaged 2.0 yards per carry before first contact last week, the second-best mark of his season.
I’ve docked him in my Week 14 rankings, but that’s a short-term punishment. There were some running lanes last week, and if that’s what we see again this week, I think Barkley may be a swing piece in fantasy postseasons.
- Week 15 vs. Raiders
- Week 16 at Commanders
- Week 17 at Bills
DeVonta Smith, WR
Searching for consistency in this Eagles’ passing game is a lost cause at this point.
You trust the volume, and you move on.
DeVonta Smith has a target share north of 26% in five of his past six games, and he also has a 25+ yard game in five of his past six. He continues to do well in contested situations for someone of his build, and his involvement is in the AJ Brown neighborhood.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
- 25+ yard catch in five of his past six games
- Only three TDs on 86 targets this season
- Target share over 26% in five of his past six
Depth of Target Splits
- Under 10 Air Yards: 84.8% catch rate
- 10+ Air Yards: 52.5% catch rate
Those splits aren’t drastically different from Smith’s career rates, but it drives home the impact of Jalen Hurt’s throw diet (pacing for the highest aDOT and second-lowest deep completion percentage of his career.
This matchup is tough on paper, but the Packers, Vikings, and Rams aren’t exactly friendly matchups and those are the opponents that Smith has found the end zone against this season.
In the leagues where I have Smith, I’ve committed to starting him weekly, and I’m sticking with that plan this week, betting more on a condensed target distribution than fearing the recent struggles of this offense as a whole.
Dallas Goedert, TE
I feel like I say it every week in this space, just using different numbers to illustrate the same point.
Dallas Goedert isn’t a viable fantasy tight end.
You’re chasing a touchdown in a run-based offense that is struggling to move the ball in any fashion. Goedert’s name is familiar, but with three straight two-catch performances, what exactly are you waiting for?
He’s not going to jump up the pecking order of this offense, and with under five targets in four of his past six, it’s clear that there simply isn’t a role to chase.
For the season, 27.3% of his receiving yards came in that big game against the Giants back in Week 6, a blowout home loss.
You can do better on the wire, even if you’re trading in more of a brand name for a lesser resume.
