The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Philadelphia Eagles players heading into their matchup with the Detroit Lions to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jalen Hurts, QB
The Eagles are 7-2, so we can’t really knock what they are doing, but they seem awfully content to milk the clock and play with small leads.
Jalen Hurts was QB18 last week against the Packers and now has three straight games without 20 completions OR a rushing touchdown. This potent Lions offense could push into a more aggressive script like the one we saw the Rams run back in September (Hurts accounted for 266 yards and four scores in that game), but it feels like the goal posts have shifted a bit for fantasy managers.
Instead of an elite ceiling and great floor, Hurts is trending toward a good ceiling with an above-average floor.
He’s a starter either way, and as long as the Tush Push is legal, Hurts is going to have Tier 1 upside thanks to the ways he can score points. That said, I think you’re well within reason to be disappointed with what you’ve gotten from him this season.
Saquon Barkley, RB
It’s been far from a banner year for Saquon Barkley (30.1% over expectation in 2024, but only two games at that level through 10 weeks this season), but a season-high 25 touches in the win over Green Bay on Monday night points to a healthy version of him, and that’s really all we can ask for.
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The Eagles are built around the ground game, and even with their star RB losing more than a full yard in yards gained per carry before contact this year compared to last, he’s picking up 10+ yards on over 10% of his attempts, and that’s stabilizing his value.
The fall from an 82.9% gain rate to 73.8% is obviously concerning and lowering his floor, but better times should be ahead with three games remaining against bottom-6 pre-contact run defenses.
He may not be the value you were hoping for in the first round, but you could have done worse, and I believe the best days are in front of him this season.
A.J. Brown, WR
Last week, A.J. Brown caught two passes on five first-quarter routes against the Packers before being shut out the rest of the way on one target across 19 routes.
I know that game was ugly, but we’ve got a pattern developing, and it’s disturbing.
For my basketball fans out there, Brown is being used like he’s more Kevin Huerter than Kevin Durant.
That is, over his past five games, the team seems to test the waters early and, if something connects, stick with it; if not, look elsewhere, much the way NBA teams treat microwave scorers rather than future Hall of Famers.
Over that stretch, in his two games with a splash play in the first quarter, Brown has gone on to total 42.1 fantasy points (24.7 expected) with a 23.8% target rate. In the other three games, we are looking at 15.3 fantasy points (31.8 expected) with a 20.6% target rate.
I’m not sure if this is a team thing or a lack of interest from Brown himself, but it’s a problem fantasy managers really can’t solve.
I could tell you that the Lions have allowed a receiver to clear 15.5 PPR points in four of their past five games or that the game atmosphere figures to skew toward the pass more often than usual for the Eagles, but if his involvement centers around making a play early, it feels like a true coin toss for if he’s going to be WR7 this week or WR37.
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The Lions are quietly the fifth-worst red zone defense in the NFL this season, allowing a touchdown on two-thirds of opponent trips inside their 20, and that theoretically opens the door for a touchdown to save us should another inefficient day come about (57.4% catch rate this season).
I’m starting Brown as a WR2, but that’s more of a negative statement on the position than it is confidence in Philly’s alleged WR1. He’s rubbing elbows with a disappointing DK Metcalf, who gets a more favorable matchup (vs. CIN) and Jameson Williams in this game.
Dallas Goedert, TE
Dallas Goedert caught three passes in a five-play stretch on the first drive of the second half, but that was pretty much all we saw of the tight end in the win over the Packers (4-43-0 finishing line).
He has a role in this offense, but he very much relies on finding the end zone, and that puts him in the same tier as half a dozen other tight ends.
Goedert is a fancy streamer. The seven touchdowns are intoxicating, but with 45 receiving yards in just one game this season, the floor is simply too low to trust consistently in this run-centric offense.
He’s a fringe top 15 tight end for me this week, just like he was last week and will be for weeks to come.