The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Miami Dolphins players heading into their matchup with the New York Jets to help you craft a winning lineup.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Tua Tagovailoa has just two finishes better than QB17 this season and is the rare option that I don’t trust in any game script.
He has more interceptions than touchdowns during this three-game win streak. In the three blowout losses that Miami has suffered this season, Tagovailoa has one touchdown against six interceptions on 86 attempts.
He’s been held without a touchdown toss in two straight, three of four, and four of six games. If Tagovailoa has a good game, it’s because he supported the values of Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane, not because he offered much in the way of value by himself.
De’Von Achane, RB
This De’Von Achane season is at risk of not getting the notoriety that it deserves because of what some of the elites at the position are doing, but I’d encourage you not to do so.
Miami’s star 99 rushing yards OR 5+ targets in 11 straight games. He’s ripped off a 20+ yard run in four straight and in six of his past seven. This offense threatens defenses in very few ways, and yet, Achane always seems to find himself in a favorable spot.
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Last week could have been even better had Tua Tagovailoa not misfired on a perfectly schemed up red zone target that had touchdown written all over it if delivered as designed.
The ‘Fins have a good chance to win this game and, not surprisingly, five of Achane’s seven best fantasy performances this season have come in victories. I suppose you could complain about Jaylen Wright getting the second carry of the game, but Achane finished that drive with a 29-yard score and doesn’t seem to be in any real danger of losing work (22+ touches in three straight games).
I said it last week, and I’ll say it again: reaching on Achane in 2026 is going to be near impossible.
Ollie Gordon II, RB
I think Ollie Gordon is going to have a greater role, but that’s more of a 2026 discussion. The rookie does run hard, but with no real equity in the pass game and no more than three rush attempts in three of his past four games, there just isn’t a reason to hold out hope for the stretch run this season.
Jaylen Wright got work on the first drive, an annoyance to De’Von Achane managers and a clear sign that even if the starter were to go down, this would be more of a muddled mess than a clear fantasy starter.
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You can find more upside elsewhere. Be it in skill set (a deep threat receiver) or a running back that is one injury away from a clear role, that would have a chance at elevating him into the top 30 of the weekly ranks.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
I was OK with the idea that Jaylen Waddle would have some down games as the WR1 in an offense that has limitations under center, but I didn’t expect consecutive iffy efforts in two plus matchups and that now has us left to worry about a wide range of outcomes for every week moving forward.
The role has been consistent, that much is fair to say. Waddle has earned 6-7 targets in four of his past five games, and he’s averaged at least 13 yards per grab in each of his past nine. But if the WR1 in an offense can go 21 game minutes without a touch, there are some scheme issues to take into consideration.
There was an end zone target directed his way, and it would have had a chance if the Saints were playing defense with 10 players, but they weren’t. That 11th man was a roaming safety that intercepted the floating pass and wiped away a chance for Waddle’s day to be made with a single play.
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I don’t fear this matchup, and because I trust the quantity of looks, I can overlook my concerns on the quality side. Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty of risk here, but that’s the dirty secret about the WR position: after about 13 options this week, they all carry a low floor.
- Justin Jefferson vs WAS
- Khalil Shakir vs CIN
- Michael Pittman at JAX
- Troy Franklin at LV
Those are just a few names in this massive tier of receivers that have as good a shot to finish as WR15 this week as they do WR45, and Waddle is smack in the middle of them as my WR20.
Darren Waller, TE
Darren Waller missed the required four games with the pectoral injury that landed him on IR in the middle of October, and he looked reasonably healthy against the Saints.
He tied with Malik Washington for the second most routes run on Sunday and we know what the Dolphins think of him: catch passes, don’t worry about blocking. That role works into our favor and I was encouraged to see him record Miami’s first catch of Week 13.
We even got a splashy play (34 yards) in the second quarter, though that was more a product of New Orleans going with the bold strategy of not guarding his side of the field.
He checked the boxes we needed, but Waller was shut out in the second half, and let’s not act like he was making fantasy waves earlier in the season because of his ability to earn looks (15 targets in his five games this season).
There was an end zone target sent his way as there always seems to be, but Tua Tagovailoa put a little too much on it, and Waller caught it out of bounds. For me, he’s still on the outside looking in when it comes to TEs. I feel reasonably good about streaming (give me Harold Fannin or Juwan Johnson this week if I get to choose), but last week inspired hope, and that’s the name of the game at the tight end position.
