De’Von Achane has looked as explosive as any running back in the league at points during his two NFL seasons. When he gets in space, be it via a handoff or a dump off pass, he’s in scoring position – it really is that simple.
That said, his productivity is tied to a quarterback whose availability is far from a certainty. Is taking a leap of faith on this potential league winner the play for redraft fantasy football managers in 2025?
De’Von Achane Fantasy Outlook
Achane racked up 1,499 scrimmage yards a season ago and has found paydirt 23 times across his 28 games as a professional (6.1 yards per touch over a 411 touch sample size).
The total numbers from 2024 sound good, and that’s without taking into consideration that he was held under 40 rushing yards in the majority of his games. Investing in Achane is something of a parlay with Tua Tagovailoa’s health, and that is why we are getting an elite talent at a price that isn’t in line with his ceiling.
2024 Splits (points per reception)
- Tagovailoa starts: 22.6 points per game (PPG), 18.4% production over expectation, 1.18 points per touch
- Otherwise (five games): 8.6 PPG, 15.5% production below expectation, 0.73 points per touch
Every player carries a level of risk, and while Achane, by way of his quarterback, profiles as a greater concern, it’s not as if the market isn’t accounting for that. In that vein, this is the type of league-winning I don’t mind taking.
De’Von Achane and the Dolphins are on the board first!
📺: #BUFvsMIA on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/GqJJdyI3EW pic.twitter.com/h53DuVgxqe— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2024
In taking risks early, I need the payoff to be special. We have a large enough sample for me to feel comfortable labeling his 42.8% rate of gaining 5+ yards (14.1% 10+ yards for those concerned) as a unique talent with running back 1 potential. How about the fact that he’s averaging 7.52 yards per carry when not hit behind the line-of-scrimmage for his career, does that do it for you?
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In a perfect world, the Dolphins would have added more support to their offensive line (Jonah Savaiinaea, early in the second round, was their only investment). Still, any trend toward league average (27th last season per our Offense+ grading metrics) would put Achane in a position to be a Tier 1 option at the position, a class he’s not being drafted in.
Personally, I lean toward him over Ashton Jeanty – I’ll take the more proven commodity in the offense with more upside and trust myself to layer in some “safe” secondary options. There are plenty of muddied backfields where you can invest in the cheapest of the two primary options in the second half of your draft and get access to some touch upside to offset any missed time from Tagovailoa.
The juice is worth the squeeze here for me; you just need to build around this unique situation in a thoughtful way.
Frank Ammirante’s De’Von Achane Fantasy Projection
De’Von Achane is an explosive back who can be an elite producer in the passing game. At the same time, we saw a decline in rushing efficiency last season, which came with a huge role through the air, as highlighted by his 78 receptions for 592 yards and six touchdowns.
It’s clear that the Dolphins’ offense was a bit broken last year, with targets force-fed to Achane and Jonnu Smith in the short-to-intermediate passing game. If that continues, we don’t have to worry too much about Achane’s fantasy value because he’ll continue to get a high volume of targets.
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On the other hand, if Miami can get back to previous form — as a high-scoring offense with tons of explosive plays — Achane can return to 2023 efficiency levels. In other words, both outcomes should yield high-end production, making Achane have a nice combination of floor and ceiling.
We just need QB Tua Tagovailoa to stay healthy because we definitely don’t want to have to deal with a backup ruining Achane’s value like last season. Zach Wilson would be next in line if Tagovailoa were to miss time. This is the one risk in Achane’s profile.
