De’Von Achane has looked as explosive as any running back in the league at points during his two NFL seasons. When he gets in space, be it via a handoff or a dump off pass, he’s in scoring position – it really is that simple.
That said, his productivity is tied to a quarterback whose availability is far from a certainty. Is taking a leap of faith on this potential league winner the play for redraft fantasy football managers in 2025?
De’Von Achane Fantasy Outlook
Achane racked up 1,499 scrimmage yards a season ago and has found paydirt 23 times across his 28 games as a professional (6.1 yards per touch over a 411 touch sample size).
The total numbers from 2024 sound good, and that’s without taking into consideration that he was held under 40 rushing yards in the majority of his games. Investing in Achane is something of a parlay with Tua Tagovailoa’s health, and that is why we are getting an elite talent at a price that isn’t in line with his ceiling.
2024 Splits (points per reception)
- Tagovailoa starts: 22.6 points per game (PPG), 18.4% production over expectation, 1.18 points per touch
- Otherwise (five games): 8.6 PPG, 15.5% production below expectation, 0.73 points per touch
Every player carries a level of risk, and while Achane, by way of his quarterback, profiles as a greater concern, it’s not as if the market isn’t accounting for that. In that vein, this is the type of league-winning I don’t mind taking.
De’Von Achane and the Dolphins are on the board first!
📺: #BUFvsMIA on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/GqJJdyI3EW pic.twitter.com/h53DuVgxqe— NFL (@NFL) January 8, 2024
In taking risks early, I need the payoff to be special. We have a large enough sample for me to feel comfortable labeling his 42.8% rate of gaining 5+ yards (14.1% 10+ yards for those concerned) as a unique talent with running back 1 potential. How about the fact that he’s averaging 7.52 yards per carry when not hit behind the line-of-scrimmage for his career, does that do it for you?
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In a perfect world, the Dolphins would have added more support to their offensive line (Jonah Savaiinaea, early in the second round, was their only investment). Still, any trend toward league average (27th last season per our Offense+ grading metrics) would put Achane in a position to be a Tier 1 option at the position, a class he’s not being drafted in.
Personally, I lean toward him over Ashton Jeanty – I’ll take the more proven commodity in the offense with more upside and trust myself to layer in some “safe” secondary options. There are plenty of muddied backfields where you can invest in the cheapest of the two primary options in the second half of your draft and get access to some touch upside to offset any missed time from Tagovailoa.
The juice is worth the squeeze here for me; you just need to build around this unique situation in a thoughtful way.
Dan Fornek’s De’Von Achane Fantasy Projection
It only took two seasons for De’Von Achane to make good on the upside many hoped for when he was drafted by the Dolphins in 2023. Achane finished as the RB6 in fantasy points per game (17.6) despite playing in a bad offense with backup quarterbacks for most of the season.
The two biggest developments for Achane in his second season were the increase in his volume (281 touches compared to 130 as a rookie) and involvement in the passing attack (87 targets compared to 37).
While the second year back struggled to find holes behind a bad offensive line (203 carries for 907 yards and six touchdowns), he made a massive impact as a pass catcher (78 receptions for 592 yards and six touchdowns) to elevate his floor and ceiling in fantasy.
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Achane was especially effective in games with Tua Tagovailoa under center. He averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game with Tagovailoa and just 8.6 points per game without him. There is always an injury risk with Tagovailoa (especially behind a bad offensive line), but he’s healthy heading into 2025.
Few running backs have the upside that Achane possesses if he can maintain his role as a pass catcher. He has a good chance to maintain that in 2025 after the team traded Jonnu Smith this offseason.
Achane’s upside is the RB1 overall in fantasy football if the Dolphins can keep Tagovailoa on the field. Even if he doesn’t reach that, we have seen that he can be a top 10 running back due to his skillset.
