The fantasy football community is starting to buy into the Deebo Samuel Sr. redemption story. After months of uncertainty, the trends among PFSN Trade Analyzer users are moving in Samuel’s favor as his “trade for” rate has increased with each passing month, with July pacing for the first month in which he is acquired (54.5% of deals) more often than he is dealt away.
But before you jump on the bandwagon, understand this: Samuel might be the most polarizing fantasy asset of 2025.
The Great Deebo Samuel Revival
Fantasy managers are finally warming up to what could be a spectacular bounce-back season. Samuel’s trade to Washington represents the perfect storm of opportunity, health, and motivation. The 29-year-old receiver is fully recovered from the pneumonia that derailed his 2024 campaign, and he’s landed in an offense with significantly less target competition than what he faced in San Francisco.
The health factor cannot be overstated. Samuel was hospitalized with pneumonia in October 2024, dealing with fluid in his lungs that didn’t keep him out of action long, but perhaps lingered throughout the rest of the season.
Samuel is coming off his lowest fantasy points per game average (10.2) since his injury-shortened 2020 season. The pneumonia was just another one of a litany of issues contributing to a disappointing campaign that saw him finish as the WR51 in fantasy points per game.
#Commanders WR Deebo Samuel working with trainer David Alexander, looking FAST & in great shape in offseason workouts 😤 pic.twitter.com/9JSNnNIc2t
— Washington Commanders News (@CommandersNews) March 30, 2025
The Jayden Daniels Connection Could Be Magic
Here’s where things get interesting. Samuel was used as a glorified running back in terms of target diet in 2022, but his route tree extended into that mid-range over his final two seasons in San Francisco. If that is how he is used this season in Washington, we could be looking at significant value at cost as Jayden Daniels’ passer rating on balls thrown 6-14 yards down the field was 104.9, better than MVP Josh Allen and 13.7 points better than NFL average.
The Commanders offense ranked fifth in scoring (28.5 PPG) and seventh in total yards (369.6 YPG) last season. Despite this unit being led by the Offensive Rookie of the Year, there were only three instances in 2024 in which a receiver not named Terry McLaurin surpassed 15.5 PPR points. That’s a massive opportunity vacuum waiting to be filled.
The Age and Speed Concerns for Deebo Samuel
But let’s pump the brakes before we crown Samuel’s comeback complete, though. The guy is 29 years old and looked noticeably slower during his final season in San Francisco. A viral video from Commanders minicamp raised eyebrows, with critics noting he appeared “out of shape” and “slow out of his breaks.”
Yikes: New Commanders WR Deebo Samuel has gone viral for looking extremely SLOW running routes at minicamp. One fan even joked that it looks like he is running with a “piano” on his back.😬😬😬 pic.twitter.com/OWXKDtoRp1
— FreeSurfandPrayforSurf (@StayDangerous_A) June 11, 2025Â
While recent workout videos show him in better condition, the concern about declining athleticism remains valid.
Both of Samuel’s elite fantasy seasons (2021 and 2023) were bolstered by heavy rushing production that helped him average 21.2 and 16.2 fantasy points per game respectively. In 2021, he carried the ball 59 times for 365 yards and 8 touchdowns. In 2023, he added 37 carries for 225 yards and 5 touchdowns. That rushing upside is unlikely to manifest on a team with an elite rushing QB in Daniels, who ran for 891 yards and 6 touchdowns as a rookie.
The Wide Range of Outcomes
This is where Samuel becomes fascinating from a risk-reward perspective. The floor is genuinely scary. His 2024 numbers (51 catches, 670 yards, 3 TDs) represent his worst per-game production since entering the league. His yards after catch per reception hit a career low, and his per-route metrics were trending in the wrong direction. If the decline is real and not health-related, Samuel could be completely droppable by midseason.
The ceiling, however, is tantalizing. A motivated and healthy Samuel in an explosive offense with reduced target competition could easily return WR2 value. The Commanders believe they’re getting the “best version” of his dynamic playmaking ability. If his route tree expands into that mid-range sweet spot where Daniels excels, Samuel could surprise everyone who wrote his obituary.
The Price Is Right
Ultimately, Samuel’s inexpensive price is primarily the driver of the increased interest from fantasy managers. He’s being drafted around WR38 in early drafts, making him a low-risk, high-reward flier in the middle rounds. At that cost, you’re not betting your season on Samuel. You’re taking a calculated gamble on talent, opportunity, and motivation.
The beauty of Samuel’s current situation is that all the downside is already baked into his price. If he returns to form, you’ve found a league-winner in the middle rounds. If he continues to decline, you can cut ties without devastating your roster. If we’re being candid, most fantasy managers will end up dropping the player they select around that spot anyway, Samuel or other.
The Verdict: It’s Complicated
So should you acquire Samuel? That depends entirely on your risk tolerance and roster construction. If you’re looking for a safe, consistent contributor, look elsewhere. If you’re willing to bet on talent, situation, and motivation over age and recent production, Samuel represents one of the most intriguing value plays available.
The 29-year-old receiver could end up being a strong fantasy WR2 who helps carry your team to a championship. He could also completely fall off and be sitting on waivers by Halloween. That’s the Samuel experience in a nutshell, and only you can decide if it’s worth the ride.
