The fantasy football community has been sleeping on D’Andre Swift, but the Chicago Bears running back is quietly emerging as one of the most intriguing value plays heading into 2025.
While many managers remain skeptical after his inconsistent 2024 campaign, the underlying metrics and changing circumstances suggest Swift could be primed for a significant bounce-back season.
The Market Is Finally Catching On To D’Andre Swift
Swift’s rising stock among savvy fantasy managers tells a compelling story. His 55.9% trade-for rate in the PFSN Trade Analyzer since June 1st ranks ninth among all players, placing him ahead of established stars like Bijan Robinson and Josh Jacobs.
This surge in interest isn’t happening in a vacuum. Fantasy managers are recognizing the perfect storm of circumstances aligning for Swift’s potential breakout.
The Bears’ offensive transformation under new head coach Ben Johnson represents the most significant factor in Swift’s favor. Johnson’s track record of maximizing running back production during his tenure as Detroit’s offensive coordinator is well-documented, and Swift himself thrived in that system back in 2022.
The reunion couldn’t come at a better time for a player whose efficiency numbers took a nosedive in Chicago’s dysfunctional 2024 offense.
D’Andre Swift = Top 10 RB in 2025? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/example
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) May 22, 2025Â
Efficiency Gains Point to Upside
Despite Chicago’s offensive struggles, Swift showed marked improvement in one crucial area that often gets overlooked. His 1.59 PPR points per target in Caleb Williams’ rookie season represented a 16.9% increase from his Eagles tenure and marked the second-best rate of his five-year career. This efficiency gain becomes even more impressive when considering the Bears’ overall offensive limitations.
Swift’s receiving prowess has always been his fantasy football calling card, and the chemistry he developed with Williams throughout 2024 bodes well for increased target share in Johnson’s pass-heavy system. The new offensive coordinator has historically utilized running backs extensively in the passing game, averaging over four targets per game to the position during his Detroit tenure.
The volume was certainly there last season, as Swift handled 253 carries and 295 total touches while playing every game for the first time in his career. However, his career-low 3.8 yards per carry highlighted the systemic issues plaguing Chicago’s ground game.
With significant offensive-line upgrades and Johnson’s scheme improvements following a 2024 season where the Bears finished with a No. 30 ranking in PFSN’s Offense + Rankings, those efficiency numbers should see substantial improvement.
Situational Usage Reveals Hidden Value
While the Bears ranked a disappointing 25th in overall rush rate, digging deeper into their situational tendencies reveals encouraging trends for Swift’s 2025 outlook. Chicago ranked 14th in rush rate when games remained competitive (score differential of six points or less), demonstrating its commitment to establishing the ground game in meaningful situations.
This split becomes crucial when projecting forward to 2025. The Bears’ improved offensive infrastructure should lead to more competitive games, naturally increasing the situations where they lean on their ground attack. Johnson’s offensive philosophy emphasizes controlling the game through efficient rushing and short passing, which should translate to increased opportunities for Swift in high-leverage moments.
The touchdown-regression narrative also works heavily in Swift’s favor. His six rushing touchdowns in 2024 fell well short of his 9.2 expected total, representing one of the largest negative variances among qualified running backs. Red-zone inefficiency plagued the entire Bears offense, but Swift’s 9.7% red-zone touchdown rate ranked fourth lowest among backs with 30-plus opportunities.
The Path to RB1 Production
Swift’s fantasy points per game consistency throughout his career provides a reliable floor that many overlook. He’s finished between 12.5 and 13.7 PPR points per game over the last three seasons while maintaining top-24 running back status in 52.9%-57.1% of weeks. This track record suggests his 2024 struggles were more scheme-related than talent-based.
The ceiling projection becomes even more enticing when considering Johnson’s offensive system. Swift averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game during his last season under Johnson’s coordination in Detroit, finishing as the RB8 despite missing time due to injury. With a full season of health and an improved supporting cast, those numbers could climb significantly higher.
Current ADP data shows Swift being selected as the RB26 around pick No. 75 overall, representing exceptional value for a player with legitimate top-12 upside. The market hasn’t fully adjusted to Johnson’s hiring or the Bears’ offensive-line improvements, creating a window of opportunity for astute fantasy managers.
For those considering trades to acquire Swift, the PFSN Trade Analyzer can help evaluate fair compensation packages. His rising trade-for rate suggests now might be the last chance to acquire him before his value peaks.
The narrative surrounding Swift has been overwhelmingly negative, but the underlying metrics paint a different picture. Johnson’s arrival, improved offensive infrastructure, and positive touchdown regression all point toward a significant bounce-back campaign.
Fantasy managers willing to look past the surface-level concerns could be rewarded with one of 2025’s biggest value plays at the running back position.
