The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Dallas Cowboys players heading into their matchup with the New York Giants to help you craft a winning lineup.
Dak Prescott, QB
It may feel like this has been a strong season for Dak Prescott, and it has been, but isn’t this sort of the status quo?
This is the fourth 30+ pass TD season of his career, and it’ll be his third straight healthy season (min. 13 games) with north of 400 completions. That level of volume creates a floor, and with the dynamic tandem of receivers, it can result in some spike weeks. But without rushing equity, are we sure he’s a lineup lock in 2026?
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His per-pass fantasy production has increased by 27% this year from last, but that’s just enough to land him where he’s been for the majority of his career. For me, he’s not a QB1 in 2026: I’d rather take my chances on Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, and Trevor Lawrence, where there’s upside to chase at the highest-scoring position in our game.
In essence, I’m viewing 2025 as his ceiling moving forward, and that’s not appealing enough given the trajectory of the position.
Javonte Williams, RB
Javonte Williams (shoulder) is grinding his way to the finish line of his age-25, a breakout with over 1,300 yards and 13 scores.
The former second-round RB will hit free agency this summer, and while I think he may assume a lead role, asking him to repeat a 300-ish touch season probably isn’t wise.
The versatility is nice to have as it makes him a reasonable fit for just about any offense. That said, the sheer volume that made him such a value this season isn’t likely to return should the color of his jersey change.
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At the moment, I have him ranked just outside of my top-20 at the position for 2026. The rookie class from this past year is far more appealing to me (forget Ashton Jeanty, I’m talking about a second tier that includes RJ Harvey, Cam Skattebo, and Quinshon Judkins, if he can recover), and that leaves little room for a player like Williams to be penciled in as a weekly starter
CeeDee Lamb, WR
It wasn’t a strong fantasy finale for CeeDee Lamb in Washington (46 yards on 10 targets), but 82.5 yards and 5.7 catches per game for the season is nothing to scoff at.
Your frustration with an underwhelming season by his lofty standards is misplaced. Part of the issue with Lamb this year is that George Pickens had a great season next to him, so those with Lamb naturally want some of that production.
But more impactful was the injury and just poor scoring luck, neither of which I’d expect to carry over into 2026.
Percentage Of PPR Points Via The Touchdown
- 2020: 25.4%
- 2021: 23.6%
- 2022: 26.5%
- 2023: 30.8%
- 2024: 22.5%
- 2025: 15.9%
Just your annual reminder that no one is immune to the swings of this game, not even one of the five best in the game.
Lamb’s aDOT is up 54.2% this season from last, and that’s at least interesting. I’m not sold we see that stick into next season, but it does stand to reason to believe that those deep targets hold more equity next to Pickens because of less defensive help over the top.
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I’ve got a definitive top-10 at the receiver position. Lamb is right in the thick of that: shuffle up and deal them however you’d like, but picking in the middle of snake drafts next season doesn’t seem like a bad spot to be, as it opens you up to scoop a Tier 1 running back first and likely have access to one of those 10 wideouts in Round 2.
George Pickens, WR
George Pickens is going to average north of 15 yards per catch for a fourth consecutive season. His move from Pittsburgh to Dallas did not bring a major change in responsibilities regarding the route tree, but as the quality of targets improved, he was able to turn his first season in Big D into the best of his career.
All four of his receptions in Washington on Thursday gained 15+ yards (41.3% of his catches this season, but from 37.3% last season). I have him sitting as a fringe top-15 WR next season, right along with Tee Higgins as the premier WR2s on their own roster that have the opportunity to finish as a top-10 fantasy option in any week.
Can he push CeeDee Lamb for the top role in this offense and thus be ranked as a player worthy of spending a top-24 pick on?
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I don’t think so. He’s had a sub 20% target share in three of his past four games, and we just don’t see alpha receivers go through extended lulls like that from an opportunity perspective. I’d 100% believe you if you told me that Pickens will be better than Lamb on a per-catch basis in 2026, but I give the incumbent such an edge in target-earning consistency to overcome that discrepancy.
Personally, these two could finish in the same range when it comes to total points scored per game, but Lamb’s more narrow range of outcomes is more appealing.
Jake Ferguson, TE
A calf injury forced Jake Ferguson to exit early on Christmas afternoon. But he did manage to score his eighth touchdown of the season prior, and that prevented you from a third straight complete stinker.
All in all, I find the 2025 Ferguson season to be the worst kind. He plays a position with plenty of fluidity, and thus, any signs of life boost our confidence. He rattled off six straight top-10 finishes at the position in the first half of this season, and that resulted in our unquestioned trust.
He built us up only to tear us down.
Had he not strung together so many consecutive weeks of success, we would have moved on before his December disaster and thus not allowed him to end the playoff runs he was largely responsible for.
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This is a good example of just how impactful TD variance can be. Ferguson was much more valuable this season than last, but was he really any different of a player?
Ferguson Annual Data
- 2024: 16.8% target share, 1.28 yards per route, 4.4 aDOT
- 2025: 17.1% target share, 1.24 yards per route, 5.1 aDOT
No, he’s not. This is a fringe TE1 as he enters his age-27 season, which just happened to feature a run of extremes in 2026. In 2023, Fergie posted a 71-761-5 season, and if I were going to submit an early projection for next year, it would look something like that.
Consider him in the Dalton Kincaid and Brenton Strange tier for 2026: stable, but a player whose ADP will determine my exposure level. If his late-season swoon tanks his public perception, I could see me landing shares, but I’d rather pay up for upside (Colston Loveland) or embrace the chaos of the position and look toward a Theo Johnson type.
