Washed. Fading. The end of an era.
Some believe that is the portion of the career arc that Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Cooper Kupp is on, and they might be right. The 2024 season was an ugly one, and health rarely improves with age, but the asking price on draft day very much reflects that.
Is there a buy-low window to take advantage of here?
Cooper Kupp’s Fantasy Outlook
Kupp turned 32 years of age this summer, and for the first time in his NFL career, he won’t be isolated by the offensive structure of Sean McVay. He’s missed 18 games over the past three seasons (three missed games in the three years prior) and will again be operating as a clear secondary option, as Jaxon Smith-Njigba has established himself as a budding star.
All of that said, it should be noted that, in the three seasons since his historic 2021 campaign, he ranks 12th among 55 qualified receivers in touchdown catches per game (0.52, ahead of Nico Collins and Terry McLaurin, to name a few). He may not be the target vacuum he once was, but as barely a WR4 for your team, does he need to be?
The constant chess match between offense and defense perfectly explained by Cooper Kupp.
At this point if you arent playing some form of match coverage, you will get exposed on D.
Football is simply the greatest game. Constantly shifting and evolving. pic.twitter.com/dcawJUlZqL
— Anthony Amico (@amicsta) June 13, 2025
Jordan Addison was a WR2 last season with Darnold under center, playing alongside a star receiver, relying on touchdowns to drive his upside. Isn’t there at least a path in which Kupp does something similar in 2025 and proves to be a tremendous value based on the diminished expectations?
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Not all players age the same way, but we’ve seen a red flag emerge in Kupp’s profile since the record-breaking 2021 campaign. His aDOT has dipped from 5.8 yards that year to 5.5 in 2022 and 5.5 again in 2023 before tanking to 4.0 last year. How alarming was that rate in 2024? Here’s a look at qualified receivers (75+ targets) who had an aDOT no greater than the 8.1 Kupp posted and how they fared after the reception.
All due respect to Wan’Dale Robinson and his family, but if Kupp is moving in that direction, he’s overpriced, even at what feels like a very manageable price tag given his resume.
That’s not to say that he is a lock to fail in a new situation with a quarterback who certainly overachieved based on expectations last season, but it is to say that there is risk that I think most are willing to overlook based on the suppressed price.
This is a parlay, and that’s naturally dangerous. You need a quarterback in a new situation to succeed, a receiver in a new situation to succeed, and both of them to exhibit chemistry. All of that can happen, but are you willing to place that wager over Kahlil Shakir or Jayden Reed types who have a foundation in their respective offenses?
Dan Fornek’s Cooper Kupp Fantasy Projection
Cooper Kupp’s injury woes continued to plague him in 2024. Since finishing as the WR1 in fantasy points per game (2021 and 2022), Kupp has failed to play more than 12 games per season. Despite the injuries, he’s remained a consistent receiver in real and fantasy football.
Kupp has averaged 97.7 targets, 67.0 receptions, 753.0 receiving yards and 5.7 touchdowns over the last three seasons. He has two straight seasons with at least 13.7 PPR points per game, which have allowed him to remain a low-end WR2 in fantasy when he’s on the field. Unfortunately, 2025 will signal the most significant change of his career.
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The Rams let Kupp leave this offseason, where he signed with division rival Seattle. The Seahawks also traded quarterback Geno Smith and wide receiver DK Metcalf this offseason and released Tyler Lockett. In 2025, the Seahawks will have Sam Darnold throwing passes to Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
If Darnold can replicate his 2024 success outside Kevin O’Connell’s offense, Kupp is poised to have a big season. Seattle’s passing attack will be extremely condensed without Metcalf and Lockett there to dominate targets. Kupp will be the second option to Smith-Njigba, but he will also operate in the slot for a quarterback who will face quick pressures due to a poor offensive line.
Given the last three seasons, you can anticipate that Kupp will miss time with an injury. However, you can also assume you’ll get WR2 production when he’s on the field. Kupp will not be highly drafted, but could provide a stable weekly floor in fantasy in 2025 despite his new surroundings.
