The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Washington Commanders players heading into their matchup with the Seattle Seahawks to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jayden Daniels, QB
All reporting last week suggested that the low-grade hamstring injury that Jayden Daniels suffered in Week 7 had a great chance of only costing him the one game, and I’m inclined to follow that logic.
With that game on Monday night, they opted to give him the week off rather than push him to play and risk a short week recovery. This is the type of move a forward-thinking franchise makes, especially one with long-term plans.
The Seahawks are a tough matchup on a good day, let alone after their bye. That said, they’ve played three QBs with some shiftiness in their profile (Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, and Trevor Lawrence), and all three of them cleared 16 fantasy points.
I’d be surprised if Daniels threatened the top of the quarterback scoring board this week, but that doesn’t mean you should hesitate in playing him. He’s a rare talent, and if Washington feels good about putting him out there, we should, too.
Marcus Mariota, QB
These backup quarterbacks seem to have some initial success, only to regress as their film circulates through the league.
Marcus Mariota completed 70% of his passes on Monday night in Kansas City, a nice accomplishment, but he put up only seven points and looked out of sorts after the opening script ran dry.
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Mariota has 20+ rushing yards in every appearance this season, and that at least gives him a path to QB2 production should he be called upon again this season. Still, in one-QB leagues, this isn’t a player I’m interested in streaming even in that situation.
Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB
This Washington backfield is struggling to sustain one RB I feel reasonable about, so there’s no need to handcuff this situation.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. has 27 rushes and a single target to his name in 2022. If Jacory Croskey-Merritt were to get injured, I think most of his role would shift toward Rodriguez, but we’d be talking about 80% of a role that is only useful some of the time.
You can find better ways to use your bench.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB
Croskey-Merritt is the lead back of an offense we believe to be above average.
That’s about all I got in terms of positive notes for Washington’s RB1.
JCM hasn’t scored during this three-game skid, has carried the ball 32 times since his last gain of 10+ yards, and has seven catches on the season.
If you’re blindly starting him, you’re overweighing his role. That’s not to say he can’t hit your lineup, but without any versatility, how much different is he really than the committee backs that we struggle with weekly in Seattle, Carolina, Houston, Tennessee, etc.?
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If you want to play him when Daniels is active, under the pretense that this is now a 75th-percentile offense that comes with a handful of red-zone trips, I’ll listen. That fuels some upside, but the floor remains low, and if the script works away from him for any reason, you’re really drawing dead.
Croskey-Merritt is my RB27 this week, a part of a tier that keeps me up at night over the spots where I have to dip into it.
Jeremy McNichols, RB
Jeremy McNichols caught a season-high five passes against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night, and if you think the game script works that way in any given week, there’s some PPR potential to chase, but considering that his next game with five carries this season will be his first, it makes him a tough sell in anything but desperate situations.
Croskey-Merritt is pretty clearly the between-the-tackles option, and that’s the safer bet weekly. I tend to think that McNichols loses value with Daniels under center, as he is capable of tucking and running instead of dumping off a shallow route.
When he does that and gets into space, it’s a better math equation with another blocker.
McNichols had a nice performance last week and would be the RB2 I roster in Washington, but in most situations, I don’t believe he needs to be rostered.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR
Deebo Samuel had two catches for 11 yards two minutes into Monday night’s loss to Kansas City.
It was a start we wanted to see with Terry McLaurin back, but it didn’t last. Over the next 58 minutes, he caught as many of his four targets as the Chiefs did (one) and didn’t pick up another receiving yard.
Kansas City is a tough matchup, and holding the ball for over 34 minutes didn’t help either.
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I think you still have a viable flex play here. Samuel and McLaurin play well off of one another, and the return of Daniels gives this offense a level of upside that Mariota simply does not.
Chalk up Week 8’s dud to the game. My thoughts about him haven’t changed since this time last week.
Terry McLaurin, WR
In his return from the quad injury, McLaurin was a part of a rotation. The game wasn’t competitive late, but even in the first half, Samuel was on the field for 81.3% of Washington’s offensive snaps while McLaurin, Luke McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane, and Chris Moore all checked in from 25-60%.
I expect that to change this week, barring any hiccups at practice, and that means you can feel fine about flexing McLaurin against the Seahawks.
Seattle has an above-average defense, but they have allowed an opposing WR to clear 18.5 PPR points in three of its past four games. We can argue as to who the top receiver is for the Commanders, but McLaurin is a part of that conversation, and that gives him top 15 upside for the week.
I rank him a little lower than that to adjust for the risk, but I’m starting him wherever I have him. I saw enough on Monday night to have me convinced that he is reasonably healthy.
Zach Ertz, TE
Zach Ertz isn’t exciting, but three straight with 6+ targets is enough to put you on our radar at least.
I’m rarely going to rank him as a top-10 tight end (9.1 yards per catch this season and a spotty track record of scoring), but I don’t think the floor is as low as most in the streamer tier.
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If you have a solid team and just want a warm body at tight end, I think this is the profile you’re looking for. If you need a difference-maker, I’d continue to throw darts elsewhere.
Evaluating player performance is one thing, but the ability to be honest about how your specific team is going to succeed is another — and, at times, the more important part of the process.