The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Washington Commanders players heading into their Monday Night Football matchup with the Chicago Bears to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jayden Daniels, QB
I saw everything I needed and then some from Jayden Daniels in his return from the knee injury that cost him two games. In the win over the Chargers last week, he ran eight times for 39 yards and closed the deal with something of a fadeaway pass, out of the pocket, right on the money to Deebo Samuel in the end zone.
Chicago owns a vulnerable defense and an offense with some upside. I expect this to be a fun end to the week, and I have both QBs ranked as top-eight options for that reason.
Marcus Mariota, QB
Marcus Mariota filled in admirably for Jayden Daniels (knee), and that makes him worthy of consideration should the franchise QB be forced into another missed game at some point this season, and a favorable matchup presents itself.
The former second overall pick threw three touchdown passes on 48 attempts and had a 20-plus yard rush in both of his starts. The upside isn’t remarkably high (363 passing yards across those two games, both in reasonably favorable spots), but the ability to pick up those cheap points on the ground is still there for the soon-to-be 32-year-old.
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For those keeping track at home, the Commanders get the Giants in Week 15 and the Cowboys on Christmas Day (Week 17).
Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB
I always think it’s interesting when a player rips off a big gain seemingly out of nowhere. If the coaching staff had a positive impression of the player pregame, the splash play reinforces prior thoughts, and they are programmed to explore just how much juice can be squeezed. If not, well, nothing changes.
Chris Rodriguez had the 48-yard run against the Falcons in Week 4, and the Commanders found it so encouraging that they gave him two fewer touches last week in Los Angeles.
This is the Jacory Croskey-Merritt show, and there is no two ways about that. The rookie back was our top-ranked runner, per our RBi grading metric, prior to his big Week 5 performance, and the strong showing only confirms that this is a straightforward situation.
It’s Croskey-Merritt or bust. I believe Rodriguez is the next man up, but I don’t think it matters. This isn’t a backfield you need to handcuff.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has a 4.7% Boom vs. Bust rate this season, and among players with at least 40 carries, that’s the top mark by a decent amount. “Boom vs. Bust” is simply the difference in percentage of carries that “boom” (gain 10-plus yards) against the percentage of carries that “bust” (fail to gain yardage).
His carry count is smaller, so drastic swings can happen, but through five weeks, his rate is more than double that of Jonathan Taylor, the running back drawing LaDainian Tomlinson comparisons.
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The advanced metrics, like the one they call “Bill” before his big Week 5 performance against the Chargers, aren’t backing down. His usage is likely to tick up after the breakout game, and with 72.1% of his carries resulting in more yards after contact than the positional average, I see no reason to pump the brakes.
He’s my favorite running back in this game, and I could see a scenario where you have to decide between him and Derrick Henry this week… I have Croskey-Merritt ranked one spot higher. What a world.
Jeremy McNichols, RB
Personally, I think Croskey-Merritt removed any committee discussions last week in Washington, and with three players involved, that’s not a backfield I’m looking to handcuff.
Jeremy McNichols brings a veteran presence to the room, but with just 13 touches on his ledger for 2025, he’s the least appealing healthy back on the Commanders’ depth chart, and it’s not close.
Instead of rostering a running back stuck with next to no role and little path to substantial change, I’d happily roster a “Christian Watson or Brandon Aiyuk” type. I’m not bullish on either of those receivers, but should they find their way onto a field, I know they have the potential to produce impactful numbers.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR
The prevailing narrative this summer was that the Commanders overspent on a veteran receiver, and while it may help them win games, the fantasy impact would be minimal.
Wrong, wrong, wrong. Washington is bouncing him in and out of the slot with all sorts of success. His target rate sits at 26%, and while some of that is due to Terry McLaurin’s health, he has looked great physically.
Last season, 19.8% of his targets came deep downfield, a mark that has increased to 34.2% through five weeks. The touchdown against the Chargers was a great display of nonverbal communication with Jahan Dotson, and that’s the type of thing we love to see.
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The versatility is hit-and-miss (three carries in two games this season, one total rush attempt in the other three), but if he’s going to be good for six catches per game, any value added on the ground is a bonus.
His value would be dinged a touch if McLaurin returns to action, but he’ll be a top-20 receiver for me regardless, with the second-worst completion percentage defense on the slate.
Terry McLaurin, WR
This quad injury is troublesome. Terry McLaurin hadn’t missed a game in four consecutive seasons before Week 4, and, considering that Washington doesn’t go on bye until Week 12, I think they may take a long-term approach with their WR1.
Through three games, McLaurin doesn’t yet have an end zone target and has the lowest on-field target share through four weeks of his career. If the injury report is clean, we are looking at a WR2 that I wouldn’t hesitate to plug back into lineups.
Washington gets Dallas next week, so the hope is that McLaurin doesn’t completely miss this very favorable stretch (if there is a panicked manager in your league, a buy-low sort of deal is very much on the table).
Zach Ertz, TE
If you were under the impression that Jayden Daniels was the missing piece when it comes to Zach Ertz’s fantasy value, I’m sorry to report that he wasn’t.
The train of thought was logical: Ertz cleared 11 PPR points in each of the first two weeks with Daniels and totaled just 12.9 in the next two with Marcus Mariota at the controls, but he’s simply not a full-time player these days.
He’s played under 62% of the offensive snaps in four of five games and was held without a catch on his 22 routes against the Chargers on Sunday. This season, 12 of his 14 catches have come on first or second down, a role that tells me he’s more an extension of the run game than a weapon in the traditional pass game.
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If I thought the running game was cooked, you could sell me on that role-holding value in a PPR scheme sort of way, but I don’t. Obviously, Daniels adds a rare dimension with his legs, but Croskey-Merritt finally lived up to what the advanced metrics suggested was likely, and that was why Ertz wasn’t used much over the weekend.
He’s still a viable player who can move the chains when called upon, but I’ve got my eye more on upside at the tight end position. The Waller heater isn’t going to last forever, but I’d rather stream him in this spot. I’d rather gamble on Loveland’s health coming out of the bye or Njoku’s potential connection with Gabriel.