The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Washington Commanders players heading into their matchup with the Atlanta Falcons to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jayden Daniels, QB
Jayden Daniels will sit for a second consecutive game as he continues to nurse this knee injury. After a convincing win last week with Marcus Mariota under center, the team is electing to take the cautious approach with their franchise QB, understanding that they don’t have a week off until Week 12.
Mariota is again a top streaming candidate for those making last-second decisions, with Geno Smith (vs. CHI) and C.J. Stroud (vs. TEN) widely available viable options.
Marcus Mariota, QB
Marcus Mariota showcased the type of versatility that you want to see from a streaming QB, and in a decent spot with Jayden Daniels (knee) again out, you can go back to the well for top 15 production. The absence of Terry McLaurin certainly caps Mariota’s ceiling (207 passing yards against the Raiders last week should be in line with Week 4 expectations), but your bet here is always one on rushing production.
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If you’re skittish on Mariota as a fill-in option, Geno Smith hosting a vulnerable Bears defense is very much in play.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB
Last week got a little funky for Washington, and that led to some weird counting numbers. They might not score three 40+ yard touchdowns in another month this season, and they did it in just over a half hour of game time on Sunday.
Having said that, this is a full-blown committee in an offense that, when at full strength, has access to arguably the most athletic QB in the game.
That’s not a recipe for success.
- Week 3 snaps: Chris Rodriguez (21), Croskey-Merritt (21), Jeremy McNichols (14)
- Week 3 touches: Rodriguez (11), Croskey-Merritt (9), McNichols (4)
Regardless of who is under center, I expect this to be a hot-hand situation that brings little to the table for us. The Falcons are the third-best post-contact run defense this season, introducing further risk into a backfield that lacks certainty in any matchup.
Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB
I was surprised that the Commanders led off last week with a heavy dose of Chris Rodriguez, but that speaks to the committed nature of this backfield.
After four straight handoffs to get things underway (25 yards), C-Rod carried just seven more times for the afternoon, picking up 14 yards in the process.
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Rodriguez was a two-down back during his time at Kentucky, and we’ve yet to see him be extended in a major way as a pro. I don’t think the player himself holds value in our game, but he will certainly be involved, and that takes value away from the other two backs in this system.
If you can play fantasy this week, and maybe for the rest of this year, without having to bank on a Washington running back, your mental health will improve.
Jeremy McNichols, RB
Jeremy McNichols channeled his inner Derrick Henry on the 60-yard touchdown run in the second quarter last week, and that was fun to watch.
It was fun to watch last week.
We are talking about a player drafted in 2017 who has never been trusted with a dozen carries in an NFL game. The outlier play on Sunday was his first career gain of 30+ yards, and nothing in his profile screams “fantasy asset.”
Some versatility in McNichols will be helpful to the committee that is forming in Washington for the Commanders, but I don’t expect it to matter in fantasy circles.
I didn’t submit any bids for him on waivers this week, and I didn’t think too much about it.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR
Deebo Samuel is a unique player, but you can only ask him to do so much.
He opened Week 3 with a 69-yard kick return to put Washington in position and handled three carries (Weeks 1-2: one total carry) as the Commanders try to settle on who they want to get labeled as their RB1.
Hopefully, Jayden Daniels is back, but now Terry McLaurin is dealing with a quad injury, potentially putting Samuel in a spot to adapt again.
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The Swiss Army nature of his skill set is great, but as he ages, this jack of all trades might be a master of none.
Over the past two weeks, his nine receptions have gained just 55 yards, and if the YAC ability starts to fade, I’m worried.
The sheer number of ways to touch the ball in this specific matchup (Atlanta is the second most blitz-happy defense in the league so far, and if Samuel is one broken tackle away from daylight, there’s upside to chase) has him at the back-end of my WR2 rankings, a tier he’ll share with McLaurin should everything check out medically.
Terry McLaurin, WR
For the first time since 2020, Terry McLaurin will sit out this game, the result of a quad injury he suffered last week against the Raiders.
The general hope is that this absence doesn’t extend beyond this weekend, so there’s no need to panic in the long term. In the short term, Deebo Samuel is a good bet for double-digit opportunities (rushes + targets) while Zach Ertz should see enough volume to squeak into the TE1 rankings.
Zach Ertz, TE
You mean a blowout game script where your backup QB is playing is bad for business for a volume-dependent tight end?
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Ertz has been held to under 40 receiving yards this season, and his efficiency-based game is a roll of the dice when Jayden Daniels is healthy, never mind when he’s not. I’m operating under the assumption that QB1 will be back under center this weekend and thus put Ertz in a better spot to give us the 8-10 PPR points that we’ve come to expect.
It’s not exciting, but that projection is enough to slide into my top 15 at the position this week, a threshold he’ll fall out of if this Daniels injury lingers.
