Ever since arguably the best rookie season by a quarterback in NFL history, C.J. Stroud has been coasting off of that performance. For two straight years, he’s done enough for the Houston Texans, but hasn’t come close to making the same fantasy impact he did that first season. Is there any reason fantasy football managers should expect 2026 to be any different?
Should You Draft C.J. Stroud in Fantasy Football?
Looking back on Stroud’s 2023 season, it doesn’t even feel real. This wasn’t a situation where he figured things out as the year went along and emerged as a viable QB1. He came out blasting!
In Weeks 2-4, Stroud posted 20+ fantasy points in each of them. He had a massive 41.8-point outing in Week 9 and another 30.9 in Week 12. In total, Stroud had seven games with 19+ fantasy points and another four in the 14-16 range, which is still enough to keep fantasy managers afloat in a given week. He averaged 18.4 PPG on the season.
Since then, Stroud’s play has declined precipitously. He’s crested 20 fantasy points just four times over his last two seasons combined. Despite his supporting cast at least remaining the same, if not improving, Stroud’s air yards per attempt has dropped every year of his career, leading to decreased efficiency, even though his completion percentage and touchdown rate have remained steady.
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One excuse some people like to offer is the Texans’ poor offensive line. It’s true that the highest grade the Texans received in PFN OL Impact Score was in 2023. However, that number (68.5) was just 4.1 points higher than 2024 and 1.1 more than 2025. It’s been below 70.0 for Stroud’s entire career. Sure, it would be nice if the Texans had a better line, which they are projected to have this season, but it’s not exactly fair to blame the line for Stroud’s decline.
Stroud’s Redraft Fantasy Football Value
Stroud has averaged 13.0 and 14.9 PPG in each of his last two seasons. He’s been a low-end QB2 who was barely even a viable streaming option. While there is a lot of merit in waiting on a quarterback this season, given how deep that position is, that depth does not include Stroud, who we have ranked at QB22.
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In standard-sized 1QB leagues, there’s no reason to draft Stroud, and he will not be selected in almost all of them. The Texans are a team content to win ugly, low-scoring games via rushing and the best defense in football. It’s rare that an opponent pushes them to have to air it out. Just six teams hit the 20-point threshold against them all of last season, three of which were exactly 20 or 21. Only three times did a team score 22+. The offensive environment is not conducive to fantasy points.
Given the sheer number of superior fantasy options, Stroud is not someone to consider outside of Superflex leagues.
Preseason Fantasy QB Rankings
- Josh Allen | BUF
- Drake Maye | NE
- Lamar Jackson | BAL
- Jayden Daniels | WAS
- Joe Burrow | CIN
- Jalen Hurts | PHI
- Caleb Williams | CHI
- Justin Herbert | LAC
- Jaxson Dart | NYG
- Trevor Lawrence | JAX
- Dak Prescott | DAL
- Bo Nix | DEN
- Brock Purdy | SF
- Patrick Mahomes II | KC
- Matthew Stafford | LAR
- Jared Goff | DET
- Kyler Murray | MIN
- Jordan Love | GB
- Malik Willis | MIA
- Tyler Shough | NO
- Baker Mayfield | TB
- C.J. Stroud | HOU
- Sam Darnold | SEA
- Daniel Jones | IND
- Bryce Young | CAR
