The Houston Texans will travel to take on the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, specifically regarding WR Christian Kirk.
Is Christian Kirk Playing in Week 1?
Kirk (hamstring) has been ruled out for Sunday’s season opener versus the Rams.
We’ll continue to monitor the Houston Texans’ injury report leading up to kickoff for any other changes to their lineup. You can also visit and bookmark our Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Christian Kirk’s Fantasy Outlook
My boss loves it when I do this.
Pull up a chair. I’m going to empty the research bucket here on a deep dive that you didn’t know you needed.
I’m higher than your favorite fantasy analyst on Nico Collins, and I might also check that box when it comes to the Week 1 outlook for the Robin to his Batman.
Let’s start with the C.J. Stroud thing. If we knew Stroud would be the Rookie of the Year version of himself (QB5 in our QB+ metric), not whatever last season was (QB33), you’d likely be more in on Kirk. Is that fair to say?
I’m high on Stroud for the season, but we are only talking about this first week. Last season, on non-Collins targets, Stroud saw his yards per completion drop by 18.9%, fueled by underwhelming after catch numbers (down 9.1% despite a tanking aDOT, something that is supposed to boost the YAC numbers, not hinder them).
We know that Christian Kirk has YAC potential, and if you insist on unpeeling this onion, you’ll notice an interesting trend.
Peak – down – down – down – peak – minor tick down – down
If you were a four-year-old learning to code patterns, you’d be tempted to think another down year is coming, but you’re better than that. You can think critically. What changed ahead of 2018 and 2022?
The organization.
Kirk was the 47th overall pick ahead of the 2018 season and then signed a four-year deal with the Jags in March of 2022 after posting career highs in catches and yards in Arizona. The counting numbers looked different, but look at the chart above, and you’ll see that his YAC numbers tanked.
Without any further context, that doesn’t sound good, but it was simply a result of a developing role. In all four of his Cardinal seasons, Kirk saw his percentage of targets coming 10+ yards increase, and the deeper the route, the less YAC equity is attached to it.
He signed the big deal in Jacksonville, and, like Arizona, they used him as an underneath option, asking him to support their short pass game. As time passed, he impressed, and they elected to evolve his role.
This past offseason, the Texans, who have access to far greater data than I do, moved a 2026 seventh-round pick for Kirk, coming off a year in which their franchise QB didn’t get post-catch help from their secondary receivers.
Interesting, no?
In 2023, a defense led by Aaron Donald in Los Angeles ranked as the fifth-best unit at preventing yards after the catch per reception, but that strength evaporated in 2024 sans the future Hall of Famer (rank: 25th, behind the Bengals).
My galaxy brain thought behind that occurrence is exotic play-scheming. When Darnold was on the other side of the line, offenses generally knew what to do: double or triple-team that monster. During Raheem Morris’s tenure (2021-23), the Rams never truly unlocked the art of blitzing around their game-wrecker, ranking 27th in pressure rate when blitzing. If you can’t create pressure when blitzing and your base front is simple to scheme against, opposing quarterbacks will have time to throw.
Time to throw means deeper passes, and that means fewer YAC opportunities.
In 2024, there was no Donald to use as a crutch or Morris calling the shots. Chris Shula took over the DC reins, a role he’s walking into 2025 with, and spent seven years tied to the second level of the Rams defense.
And guess what? They were the fourth-best defense at creating pressure (46.2%, league average: 40.6%). The next logical step in that progression is to ramp up the blitz rate, increasing the pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Should that occur in this matchup, could Nico Collins’ deep targets be limited? It’s possible. Regardless of your reading on that portion of this equation, the signs point to some short throws in this matchup, with Kirk being the primary option on those routes.
Do you remember Kirk’s reintroduction to the fantasy world following a change of address the first time?
That’s what I’m here for. Jacksonville brought him in, schemed him up, and made him the only WR in our game to reach 17 PPR points in the first three weeks of his first season in town.
I’m not suggesting that the now 28-year-old comes out of the gates quite that fast. Still, with only rookies really competing with him for targets next to Collins, I think we are looking at a redraft Week 1 flex and an exciting triple stack that isn’t garnering much attention.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em article.
