The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Kansas City Chiefs players heading into their matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders to help you craft a winning lineup.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
Mahomes played 16 games last season and totaled 42.7 points with his legs: through six weeks this season, he has 46.2.
Oh, and he has eight touchdowns against just one interception over the past three weeks.
Did I mention he gets his WR1 back from suspension this week? Or that he averages 23.4 fantasy points per game over his career against the Raiders with a 33:5 TD/INT rate in those 14 games?
Whether you want to rank him as QB1, QB2, or QB3 for the week, he’s nothing short of an elite option and projects to be considered as such for the remainder of the season.
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It’s possible that the return of Rashee Rice, along with the commitment to Isiah Pacheco, could result in his rushing numbers coming back to Earth over the next two months, but he’s got room to spare.
Mahomes is the best quarterback in the game, and while he hasn’t been considered the best fantasy QB for a few years, that narrative could flip as soon as this week.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
Is this the spot?
Could we finally be at the spot?
Neither Pacheco nor Kareem Hunt was required to do much in the Week 4 demolition of the decimated Ravens, but since then?
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Pacheco, Week 5: 61.9% snap share, 28 routes
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Hunt, Week 5: 33.3% snap share, 8 routes
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Pacheco, Week 6: 77.4% snap share, 29 routes
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Hunt, Week 6: 29% snap share, 7 routes
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For the first time, this doesn’t look anything like a committee. Hunt seemed to be dealing with a minor injury at points on Sunday night. Still, the Chiefs see what we, the fans, see: a hard-running Pacheco that seems to be completely recovered from the injury that cost him the majority of last regular season.
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Could a matchup with the eighth-worst post-contact defense be the spot where we get a stat line that is in line with what we expected entering last season, when he was viewed as a fringe RB1?
I think it’s possible. I have Pacheco ranked as a top 20 option at the position, while Hunt falls behind both New England RBs. I’m going to be a weekly early instead of late: I don’t have the time on Pacheco rosters to burn a potential breakout spot – those teams are on life support as it is.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Hunt’s calling card was versatility and value. He hasn’t been a high-touch player at any point this season (7-14 in all six weeks), but he was getting the red zone work and had a resume that made him a good fit out of the backfield with Patrick Mahomes.
Easy come, easy go.
Isiah Pacheco’s role showed signs of expanding in Week 5, and in Week 6, he out-touched Hunt 4-1 in the red zone and ran more routes (22) than Hunt had snaps (18).
I’m not ready to call this a bellcow situation, but we are certainly trending in that direction. Hunt played 41.7% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps in September, but that rate has dropped to 31.2% thus far in October.
You’re not playing Hunt as it is, and he could be played off of the “must roster” tier if these trends continue.
Marquise Brown, WR
Hollywood Brown had been quiet, though, in the first five weeks this season before turning two of his four targets against the Lions on Sunday night into scores.
Week 1 was effective (10 catches for 99 yards), but that was more the result of him filling the Xavier Worthy feature role after their WR1 left after three snaps.
In terms of the Hollywood Brown “role”, Sunday was the first time it really paid off, and even then, he’s yet to reach 50 yards in that spot.
I said it last week, and I’m saying it louder this week after the 20.5 PPR outburst: I’m selling to the highest bidder. I don’t care if I don’t think I’m getting great value; this is a chip I want to cash in before it’s too late, and if that means taking $0.80 on perceived value, I’m good with it.
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In terms of aDOT, Andy Reid has been shifting Brown’s role all over the place, which suggests he is still searching for a spot for him to impact this offense, with Rashee Rice now back and Worthy healthy.
Mahomes is comfortable targeting both running backs, and obviously, Travis Kelce still exists, so where exactly is Brown getting enough looks to make him a top 30 receiver?
Or top 40?
Move him before the window closes. I beg of you.
Rashee Rice, WR
Rice is set to return from his six-game suspension, and he’s certainly not low on confidence.
“Everybody’s gotta eat.”
Rice posted that on Twitter, and while I believe the sentiment, are we sure it’s accurate?
Might it just be him?
The expectation is for the Chiefs to roll this week, and in wins in which he’s run 20+ routes, Rice has averaged 18.9 PPR PPG for his career, catching 60 of 71 targets across those nine games (fantasy production: 41.1% over expectation).
We are talking about a receiver who could put up top 15, if not top 10, numbers the rest of the way. If you’re worried about a slow start, Rice scored in his first career NFL game and cleared 100 yards with a 33.3% target share in his first action of 2022.
All gas, no brakes.
Xavier Worthy, WR
Sunday night was an interesting one for Worthy, and while the touchdown saved you, the overall execution from Kansas City scared me a bit.
He was one of six Chiefs to see 2-4 targets in the win over the Lions, with everyone falling in line behind Travis Kelce (six catches for 78 yards on seven looks). And that’s the catch.
When Patrick Mahomes is playing at this level, he’s not forcing the issue on anyone. He completed all seven passes (102 yards, 2 TD) that he threw in the direction of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Hollywood Brown, so why not take it?
Worthy had a flip pass and a quick route into the flat (six-yard TD on fourth down) in addition to a pair of targets that came at least a dozen yards downfield. The versatility was a good reminder of what we saw down the stretch last season, but the indifference in getting him involved outside of those two short targets was a marginal red flag for me, with Rashee Rice set to return this weekend.
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If we are to assume that Rice and Kelce account for, in the neighborhood of, 50% of targets in KC and Worthy isn’t going to be prioritized (Tyquan Thornton didn’t see a target on his 14 routes, and if he gets involved, that’s yet another mouth to feed), there is a low floor that I think most are going to overlook.
I’d take the temperature of the room. If Worthy is viewed as a set-it-and-forget-it top 20 player at the position, I’d at least listen to offers. The numbers moving forward might still be there, but I don’t think they come in the most consistent of ways, and a poorly timed dud could eliminate you from title contention.
Travis Kelce, TE
Kelce isn’t what he once was, but his connection with Mahomes is special, and his role in this offense is clear: post up and move the chains.
His aDOT is down 22.2% from a season ago, but there are like three tight ends in the sport that you want challenging defenses downfield anyway. Instead, he’s leveraging his experience to find holes, and that’s resulted in him catching 18 of 20 targets over the past three weeks.
I’d be surprised if he finishes any week moving forward as the top-scoring player at the position, but I won’t be at all shocked if he continues to post top 10s in two-thirds of his games, even with Rashee Rice back in the fold.
In 2024, across two games, Kelce recorded 25 targets, 158 yards, and a score against the Raiders. The volume is safe for him in most spots, and that’s been especially true against the Black and Silver, as he has earned at least seven looks in six straight matchups with the divisional foe.
