The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Kansas City Chiefs players heading into their matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders to help you craft a winning lineup.
Brashard Smith, RB
Brahard Smith caught a touchdown pass on Christmas Day, and while I expect this Kansas City backfield to look different when we kick off next season, Smith may carve out a niche.
As a rookie in an offense that hasn’t been nearly as steady as we had hoped, Smith has earned 31 targets (23 catches) on 88 routes. He caught 39 balls as the featured back at SMU in 2024, indicating that this is a skill set he owns. I’d be surprised if he picks up significant work, but involved in a Tyjae Spears sort of way (8-10 touches per game)?
That wouldn’t shock me, and it would make him rosterable in most leagues.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
We saw Isiah Pacheco featured again on Thursday night (63.6% first quarter snap share, 57.1% for the game), and when looking forward, I’m intrigued by him staying on the field in the passing spots over Kareem Hunt (16-4 route edge against the Broncos).
He’s not a bad play this week, should your league extend into Week 18 due to the matchup and the recent usage trends, but we did see Brashard Smith score last week, and the Chiefs may use this throw-away game to see what the rookie brings to the table.
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In terms of 2026 analysis, this is a tough one to handicap. His rookie deal expires when this season does: Do the Chiefs view him as the answer? If so, and he’s getting +65% of the snaps, we could be looking at a solid RB2 that has some RB1 potential if you believe that Patrick Mahomes returns to form for your playoff push.
We have plenty of time to make that decision, but I do think he’ll have a fantasy viable role next year, no matter the jersey he is rocking.
Rashee Rice, WR
Rashee Rice is a WR1, and I’m not getting talked off of that unless you tell me that Patrick Mahomes misses the first half of the season.
Rice’s Career
- 28 games
- 156 catches
- 209 targets
- 1,797 yards
- 14 touchdowns
He’s averaging over two PPR points per target, and we saw him produce 35.5% over expectation in 2024. Even during a fractured 2025 season, he handled 14 red zone touches in his eight games.
Andy Reid is well aware of what he has, and so is Mahomes. Rice’s volume grades as elite with or without Travis Kelce in the mix, and that’s why I’m already excited about the shares I’m going to grab of him in 2026 at a potential discount if there are worries about the integrity of this offense.
Right now, I’d take him over all of the young receivers with something in the way of question marks under center (Malik Nabers, Tetairoa McMillan, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, etc) and over the super talented, but secondary options in high octane offenses (Tee Higgins and George Pickens).
Travis Kelce, TE
Is this the end for Kelce?
It’s been a bumpy road to the finish line if it is: under 50 yards in five of his past six and a scoreless December.
The Chiefs got him involved late on Christmas as they tried to pull off the upset of the Broncos, but it was another disappointing day at the office. If we do get him back in 2026, it’s going to be very much a matter of circumstance.
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Is it with KC? What’s the Mahomes timeline look like? How’s this offense (backfield) project to run?
Those are questions for another day. We will at least get breadcrumbs and can take a more informed stance as the time nears. For now, I’m not counting on him as a fantasy starter in 2026. His red-zone usage rate fell off a cliff this season (a career-low 13.1% of his routes run inside the 20 resulted in a target), further fueling the continued lack of upside.
At the peak of his powers, double-digit end zone targets in a season was the expectation. Right now, he has nine since the beginning of last season, and with the target earning skills fading, he needs those valuable looks to be of use to us.
A return to Chiefs Kingdom would be his best bet, but given the emotional nature of everything around last week’s home finale, it’s hard to imagine that being in the cards.
