The fantasy football landscape shifts dramatically after Week 17, as unexpected performances and emerging storylines reshape our expectations for the season ahead. Some players exceed all projections, while others leave managers scratching their heads, wondering if early concerns were justified or simply growing pains.
This Saturday night brings two showdowns that are worthwhile. The Los Angeles Chargers-Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers-Baltimore Ravens matchups could provide crucial clarity on several key start/sit situations for both pairs in the NFL. Get ready to dive deep into the developments that could make or break your fantasy team’s Week 17 performance.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert, QB
Justin Herbert was outright surgical against the Cowboys last week (23-29 for 300 yards and two scores) and cleared six points as a rusher for the fourth time in an eight-game stretch.
You know about the big-name weapons, but how about gains of 11 and 34 yards to Tre’ Harris in the first drive? Quentin Johnston was inactive in Week 15, but Herbert showed no hesitation in looking his way in single coverage spots.
And then you had the Ladd McConkey wheel route TD, where it was clear that Herbert saw the game slow down, something so many of the greats say occurs when you’re truly comfortable.
The sky is the limit for this kid, and I’m excited to see what he can do in this tough matchup. Last week, he completed 7-of-10 passes against the blitz (completion rate against the blitz before this season: 45.5%), proving himself capable of making a weakness of a strength.
This might be the first time I’ve ranked a QB inside my top 15 against the Texans this season, and it doesn’t feel like a hot take.
Kimani Vidal, RB
There is a chance that Kimani Vidal will be inactive this week due to a neck injury he suffered over the weekend. Even if that’s not the case, it stands to reason that his usage is capped, and against an elite defense like Houston, that’s not going to work.
Vidal did get Los Angeles’ first carry against the Texans, but this is pretty clearly Omarion Hampton’s backfield. Hassan Haskins would pick up work if Vidal sits, though that role hasn’t been relied upon much (31 carries for 88 yards in December for Vidal).
Omarion Hampton, RB
Hampton had maybe his best game as a pro on the ground (56.3% of his carries gained at least five yards, topping his previous top rate of 50% from Week 4) and looks the part of a true star in this league.
This is obviously a tough matchup, but we did just see a rookie dismantle them (31.8 PPR points for Ashton Jeanty on Sunday), and Vidal’s status is up in the air.
I’ve got the rookie ranked as a top 20 RB this week (31% snap share when he returned in Week 14, 37.1% in Week 15, and 53.2% last week) and if this offense develops over the next eight months as we’d expect (10 red zone touches over his past three games), I’m optimistic that he hits RB1 status when I release my 2026 rankings.
Keenan Allen, WR
There’s just no real fantasy upside here.
Keenan Allen is a highly reliable third-down option, and that’s great for the trajectory of this team, but for fantasy purposes, his efficient style comes with far too low a floor to make it worth our while.
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He hasn’t scored in two months, and while he almost got there, he still hasn’t hit 10 fantasy points since Week 7 against the Colts. This offense has four pass catchers that can produce, but none that we feel good about.
In spots like that, I need single-target upside, and in that regard, Allen is a pretty clear WR3.
Ladd McConkey, WR
The game plan seemed to be to get McConkey going last week in Dallas after consecutive air balls (total: three catches on eight targets for 32 yards and zero scores), and it was working.
The second-year wideout saw four of Herbert’s first nine targets, caught three of them, and scored on a 25-yard pass in the second quarter, where the wheel route had time to develop into a thing of beauty.
It was all trending in favor.
Until it wasn’t.
He caught one pass for three yards the rest of the way, leaving us with a fifth straight sub-15-point effort after he went for 15+ in four of five prior.
I wish I could tell you with confidence what to expect moving forward. On the surface, I’m encouraged by the three end zone targets (two more than he had in his previous six games combined), but this is a top-5 defense in yards allowed, yards per play, and third down conversion rate.
The saving grace here is two-fold. I’m not sure their traditional run game works well, and I’m not any more sold on any of his pass-catching teammates. McConkey remains my highest-ranked Charger WR by a comfortable amount, but that’s only enough to have him on the top 30 bubble next to names like Chris Godwin and Stefon Diggs.
Quentin Johnston, WR
Depending on how you play fantasy football, players like Johnston are either what makes it great or mind-numbingly frustrating.
Through September, he was pacing for a season with 1,432 receiving yards and 17 scores.
He missed Week 15 with the groin injury, but in Weeks 5-14, his full-season pace was for 417 yards and 6.5 touchdowns.
We’ve been out on him for a while, and that was the stance I made in Week 16: why would we count on a struggling receiver with a prohibitive injury to advance us through our semifinals?
Herbert found him (born in Texas) for a 23-yard touchdown on the first drive against the Cowboys, a one-handed grab on a perfectly thrown pass to the sideline. We got a 50-yard catch on the first drive of the second half, too, another example of Herbert putting his receiver in a position to high-point the ball.
If you’re going this way, you’re an underdog that can take on risk. Johnston has three games this season with over 20 fantasy points (Weeks 1-4-16) and three games with under three points (Weeks 8-11-14).
The upside is there; I won’t fight you on that. However, the Texans haven’t allowed a 20-point receiver game since Jaxon Smith-Njigba got them for 26.3 points in Week 7. In fact, two of the past three opponents haven’t gotten a receiver to double digits.
I’m out on Johnston this week: he’s my WR41.
Oronde Gadsden, TE
I’m not sold that Oronde Gadsden and Johnston can co-exist in this offense.
We’ve seen both produce big numbers for spurts. Still, rarely together, and with Johnston taking a step forward last week via the drive-changing plays, that has me fading Gadsden in favor of streamers like Colby Parkinson and Brenton Strange that have shown more potential recently.
The Bolts have won four straight, and they’ve done it with their TE1 earning just 12.2% of the targets. Don’t overthink this one and move on.
Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud, QB
The Texans aren’t going to ask C.J. Stroud to put up fantasy numbers, and that’s the main reason I’ve been hesitant for two months now in betting on him.
I think there’s an above-average profile to chase in the right situation, but the better the Texans play, the worse it is for Stroud’s value (six games under 210 passing yards this season, one or fewer TD tosses in four of his past five games).
The Chargers blitz as rarely as any team in the NFL, and that means we are likely to see plenty of dink-and-dunks. His aDOT has decreased each season of his career, and while we get the occasional vertical shot for Nico Collins, he will need to hit on at an elite rate of those to make him worth our time.
Stroud is what the Texans need to threaten in January, but he’s not what you need to get your championship-bound roster to the finish line.
Nick Chubb, RB
Woody Marks (ankle) was out last week, leaving the door open for Nick Chubb, deemed healthy from the rib injury, to get meaningful work.
It didn’t happen, and that should tell you all you need to know about how this team views what the veteran has left in the tank.
He carried six times for 33 yards (30 coming on one play) against the Raiders, but it was Jawhar Jordan, a 2024 sixth-rounder, who led the backfield in snaps, routes, targets, and touches. There wasn’t a red zone running back touch to be had last week, and that eliminated any hope of an RB from this backfield backing into a valuable stat line.
Marks was questionable for most of last week, but regardless of whether he’s back or not, Chubb isn’t on my radar as a viable option in Week 17.
Woody Marks, RB
Marks had assumed control of this backfield, and we saw that on full display with 26 carries against the Chiefs in Week 14.
He had the weird fumble recovery TD in Week 15, but an ankle injury cost him the majority of that game and resulted in a DNP over the weekend. If we get confirmation that he is a full-go this week, I’d be tempted to pencil him in for a 14-17 touch role in an offense that wants to run the ball effectively to help limit the aggression from the Chargers in attacking Stroud.
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This situation warrants close monitoring. As of now, I’d tentatively plan on a secondary option, with a healthy Marks being a bonus more than an expectation.
Nico Collins, WR
One day, we will find a way to reward receivers for penalties drawn.
I’m not sure the best way to do that (it can’t be one-to-one for yards because there’s no guarantee that the pass is completed sans penalty, and there’s also no guarantee that if it is, that the play stops there and doesn’t result in even greater production). Still, I’ll work on it this offseason and create a formula.
Using that futuristic scoring structure, Collins would have been a star against the Raiders. In our current structure, however, his 9.9 PPR points weren’t exactly what you were looking for in a great matchup for a team with plenty of motivation.
Collins hasn’t cleared five catches in over a month, and I think that has to change if Houston truly wants to make noise in January. Could that be the case this week against a Chargers defense that was gashed by George Pickens in Week 15?
I think so.
My wife’s family has plans on Saturday at 5 p.m. EST. I told them that Collins needs my help to produce for a few teams. I’m going to get in trouble when they see through that, but if Collins can call us 20 PPR points, it’ll have been worth it!
Dalton Schultz, TE
Dalton Schultz is the gold standard for how most people like to draft the TE position, and it always is underappreciated.
He’s scored a TD in consecutive games and has at least 11 PPR points in six of his past eight. Schultz is unlikely to post a significant number that doubles the production your opponent got and carries you to victory, and that would be a pain if he played any other position.
But he doesn’t. He’s a tight end, and you’re not allowed to complain about consistently viable numbers at that position.
His value for 2026 could be an issue if these rookie receivers develop into real options next to Collins, but that’s not going to happen overnight, and that’s why Schultz is again inside of my top-10 this weekend.
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love, QB
Jordan Love wasn’t exactly lighting up the Bears on Saturday night before taking the head-on sack that resulted in him not finishing the first half or returning after halftime.
He has just four top-10 finishes at the position this season, so hopefully you’re not relying on him in a significant way at this point, but Malik Willis (shoulder) isn’t a bad streaming option if you’re in a tough spot and he’s active. He brings with him the type of plus-athleticism that is a cheat code in our game, and there’s a chance this game shoots out in a big way.
“Packers QB” will be ranked as a top-12 play for me this week, provided that Love or Willis is active.
Emanuel Wilson, RB
Did you know that it’s been over a month since Emanuel Wilson has been stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage on a carry?
That’s four straight games, and while his volume wasn’t anything to write home about until Josh Jacobs (knee) started being held back last week, we are still talking about a 23-carry sample size.
I don’t think he’s in a position to work into a committee role if Jacobs is ruled healthy, but what are the odds that happen this week?
I still like Jacobs, even a banged-up version of him, to lead this backfield in touches, but you wouldn’t have to twist my arm to project Wilson for 10-12.
How much value does that hold?
Realistically, not much. He has seven games this season (including four straight) without a single target earned, and if Jacobs is anywhere close to marginally healthy, I think he’s the favorite to get the red zone work. That said, double-digit touches are hard to find this time of year, and that is why Wilson, at the very least, shouldn’t be available in any competitive league.
I don’t currently have him ranked as a starter in most formats, but in a deeper league with multiple flex spots, I could see how you might consider him a starter. Rostering Wilson is more about blocking your opponent from potentially having an RB2 should Jacobs sit: I’m not counting on it. Still, if I can take away any path to production for my opposition, you better believe I’m doing it!
Josh Jacobs, RB
And this, friends, is why the NFL is a game for gladiators.
Jacobs was on crutches during the work week and signed up for having 11 grown athletes chase him around the field on Saturday. I slept funny on Monday and was wondering aloud if I’d have to pull out of playing HORSE with my nephew on New Year’s Eve.
There are levels to this, and NFL players are unique in comprehension. We’ve become so immune to superhuman recoveries that defy logic that when something like the Jacobs situation happens, we are taken aback.
- Quarter 1: 52.9% snap share
- Quarter 2: 31.8% snap share
- Quarter 3: 60% snap share
- Quarter 4 and Overtime: 12.5% snap share
When an extended rest was possible, Jacobs was trying to give it a go, but his health simply wasn’t sustainable, and that shouldn’t be viewed as a surprise.
Again, he opened the week on crutches.
So, yeah, you can complain about his 14 touches netting just 4.8 PPR points for you, but if you consider the facts we had entering the game, you were the one who elected to click him in with the risk known.
It doesn’t sound as if he did any additional damage to his bulky knee, and with Green Bay battling for that final playoff spot, I think it’s more likely than not that we see him suit up again on Saturday night.
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Wilson is a must-roster at this point because we simply don’t know. Could the Pack rest Jacobs this weekend with the hope that he’s close to healthy for Week 18 and (hopefully) a playoff game or two?
At the end of the day, I think you’re playing Jacobs if we believe he can handle 15+ touches. This run game worked last week (Wilson ran for 82 yards on 14 carries, and that was without his average being inflated by a single attempt), and with potential chaos/limitations at the QB position, I’d expect this offense to function through the handoff.
I currently have Jacobs as in and handling 15-17 touches. That’s obviously not the 20+ that we were getting through the first two months, but he is averaging a career-high 0.90 PPR points per touch this season, and that would be enough to get us home, even at lesser usage.
Christian Watson, WR
Christian Watson led the Packers in targets on Saturday night and didn’t appear to be significantly hampered by the chest/shoulder issue that forced him out of Week 15’s loss in Denver.
What appeared to hamper him, in addition to a Love injury, was an increased level of attention.
In Week 14, he turned four targets into four catches, 89 yards, and a pair of touchdowns against the Bears, production that the defense was clearly hellbent on preventing a repeat of.
This is the concern with the Green Bay receivers as a whole, and we saw it with Romeo Doubs earlier in the season: they are all secondary options that struggle with primary coverage.
Any of them (Dontayvion Wicks had his moment on Thanksgiving, and we keep wishcasting it upon Jayden Reed) can shine in spots, but the second they succeed at such a level where defenses gear schemes their way, the bottom falls out.
That raises the question: How will Baltimore defend itself?
We’ve seen them struggle with size a bit (Keon Coleman had the huge fourth quarter against them back in Week 1, while Rome Odunze, DK Metcalf, and Ja’Marr Chase (twice) have all burned them for over 18 PPR points more recently.
Saturday was a red flag (the end zone targets were never real opportunities to score as much as they were reasonable throwaways in his direction). Still, in this matchup in a prominent spot and without any other signs of life from this receiving core, Watson remains my top-ranked GB WR and a flex play in most formats for me this weekend.
Jayden Reed, WR
Jayden Reed was a no-show for much of Saturday night until the game was on the line.
And then they started to scheme him up looks in the short passing game to see if he could spike a play?
I have questions. If that was your catch-up plan, it was presumably one that you felt good about: why not try it earlier? Reed ran 16 routes in the first half and didn’t have a single ball thrown his way in a game that was their most important of the season.
Seems curious.
His leading the Packers in routes run (26, 64.3% snap share) was a positive step and consistent with what we’ve seen recently, but there is an empty-calorie nature to his playing time (he has yet to clear 55 receiving yards in a game this season).
If Green Bay wants to make the playoffs, let alone have a chance to pull off an upset, they will need him to get going to bridge their physical run game with the shot-taking targets that go Watson’s way.
Maybe the team can figure that out over the next two weeks, but I’m done trying to be early: Reed isn’t a viable fantasy starter until we get proof of concept.
Matthew Golden, WR
Matthew Golden was shut out against the Bears on Saturday, the second time the Bears held the speedy rookie without a grab this month.
Just three times this year has he caught more than three passes in a game, in what has amounted to a lost season with no clear direction for growth (does his role matter if Watson can stay on the field)?
The Packers gave him a red-zone carry on their first drive last week, but if he’s just a high-profile gadget player, his fantasy outlook for next season is limited at best.
He’s firmly off your radar for the remainder of this season, and without a roster change, I can’t imagine going this direction with any level of confidence this summer.
Romeo Doubs, WR
Talk about an up-and-down game.
Doubs was clearly a pressure point that the Packers were interested in pushing against the Bears on Saturday night, as they featured him out of the gate at a level that we hadn’t seen with consistency for over a month.
First Half Receiving Date
- Doubs: 4 catches on 5 targets for 51 yards
- All Other Packers: 5 catches on 11 targets for 42 yards
Easy come, easy go. He mishandled the onside kick that came back to cost the Packers dearly, and it is seemingly illegal for any wideout attached to this offense to sustain success.
Was Doubs impressive and scripted last week?
He was.
Am I assuming that a player who had 79 receiving yards over the four games prior is now flexible?
I am not. Give me Watson as the WR1 in this offense, and the only member that I have ranked as a top 30 option at the position.
Luke Musgrave, TE
The 26-yard grab was a nice highlight and gives Luke Musgrave a splash play (20+ yards) in three of his past four, but given that he’s earned five targets in a game just once this season, it’s clear that the Tucker Kraft role was more Tucker Kraft and less role.
With a 77.4% catch rate this season and some downfield ability, there is something there in this profile, but probably not on this roster when it’s at full strength.
The efficiency gives him a chance to slide into the top 12 conversation this week, if for no other reason than if he can get to that five-target threshold, that a four-catch day gives you a chance to matter at the position. That and the fact that Green Bay is playing meaningful football are essential.
That said, you’re still taking on significant risk, and I’m not sure the reward is worth it. Musgrave is not in my top 12 this week and thus is not a priority play by any means.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson, QB
Lamar Jackson suffered what is being labeled as a “significant” back contusion, but the Ravens may roll him out there on Saturday with their season on the line.
He’s already missed three games this season and has been active but absent for the majority of this season (four games under eight fantasy points and yet to have a 30-point effort).
I think we’ve reached a point where you need to move on. That’s obviously hard to do, but a compromised version of a struggling QB isn’t exactly where I want my fate sitting.
Tyler Shough is currently my highest-ranked available option in many leagues, with Malik Willis looming, should Jordan Love (concussion) be ruled inactive.
The Jackson project will be a fun endeavor this summer. My intuition is that his value will dip, but not as much as most are hoping. Unless they add a receiver, he won’t be in my top tier at the position.
Derrick Henry, RB
I can’t explain to you why Derrick Henry didn’t touch the ball for the final 12:50 of Sunday Night’s loss. I wish I could.
Fortunately, he was able to get plenty of work in earlier, giving us his sixth straight game with either 100 scrimmage yards or a rushing score. The DeHember narrative is out there and strong:
Percentage Of Carries Gaining Yards
- Weeks 1-14: 81.5%
- Weeks 15-16: 93.1%
If only the Ravens were aware of this.
The Packers gave up 150 yards on 26 carries to the Bears last week, their first following the Micah Parsons injury and likely the start of a trend.
With Jackson and Jordan Love both banged up, this could be a game played in the mud, and that is right where Henry managers want to be. I’ve got Henry ranked as a top-10 running back this week as Baltimore plays for their playoff lives.
Keaton Mitchell, RB
I will give it to the Ravens: When they put Keaton Mitchell on the field, they look to get him work.
There’s a downside to that.
I’m a researcher in my basement from 100’s of miles away, and I’ve cracked the code (19 snaps and nine touches): I’m going to go ahead and say that a desperate Packers team is probably pretty aware of this pattern.
Mitchell has shot-out-of-a-cannon athletic abilities (16 carries for 161 yards and a score in the three games before his nine-carry 13-yard dud against the Patriots), but this is an offense searching for answers, and that isn’t the top of an environment that favors a complementary back like this.
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In the loss to New England, all three of Baltimore’s primary RBs had exactly four snaps. We know what Henry brings to the table, but nothing appears to be written in stone, and that takes out all of my interest in flexing a player like Mitchell.
Long-term, are we looking at a ramped-up version of Kenneth Gainwell? A player who touches the ball 100-125 times a season and is schemed up specific looks weekly?
I think that’s about right, and that could get him into the flex conversation as early as next season.
But not this week.
Zay Flowers, WR
Zay Flowers may not be a Ja’Marr Chase-type alpha, but we mustn’t evaluate this Baltimore passing attack the same way we do the one in Green Bay: this team has a well-defined WR1.
We’ve gotten over 15 PPR points from Flowers in three straight games (35.4% target share), and he’s doing it in an ultra-efficient manner with over three yards per route in each of those contests. In fact, he’s over 2.4 YPRR in eight of the past nine, and that figure can be spun a few different ways:
- He needs to be efficient to be productive, and thus is at risk if a defense keys on him
- Elite players post elite efficiency metrics, and his ceiling is high should the volume spike
Which one of those options you identify with likely dictates where you stand on Flowers. Personally, I’m OK with buying stock in a Todd Monken offense with a strong QB. Flowers is a rock-solid WR2 this week for me, and I think a career season is very much within the range of outcomes in 2026.
Isaiah Likely, TE
If this Baltimore offense were off and running, I could see hoping that an athlete like Isaiah Likely falls into a high-usage spot, but it’s not, so I can’t.
He split 24 routes down the middle with Mark Andrews last week, and now has 22 targetless routes on his resume for the past two weeks. With the veteran re-upping on his contract during the season, we need to find a new home for Likely, and we must do so quickly while the stock is this affordable.
Right now, he’s nowhere near lineups, but stick him in Denver, Washington, Tampa Bay, or Seattle, and I won’t apologize for ranking him as a TE1 in 2026.
Mark Andrews, TE
It’s been a saying for years in professional sports, and it’s as true as it’s ever been when looking at the TE spot in Baltimore: “When you have two [insert position], you have none”.
Andrews has celebrated his contract extension with three straight games under 25 receiving yards. Not how I’d do it, but to each’s own.
His aDOT has reached 11+ yards in all three of those contests, and that’s just not how he wins (aDOT this season prior: 7.7 yards).
We are talking about a TE who desperately needs a TD to pay off: We don’t know about his QB situation, and he hasn’t seen an end zone look in three of his past four. He’s in a position to fail, and so are you if you roster him based on name value.
