Last year was the first season in CeeDee Lamb’s career in which the Dallas Cowboys wide receiver did not increase his fantasy output from the previous year. With him and Dak Prescott fully healthy, should fantasy football managers expect a return to the ranks of the elite for the Cowboys’ WR1?
Should You Draft CeeDee Lamb in Fantasy?
Coming up in an era where rookies often burst onto the scene and progression is quick and exponential, Lamb had more of a traditional rise to greatness. He averaged a very good 13.6Â fantasy points per game as a rookie. In his sophomore year, Lamb experienced moderate growth, posting 14.6 PPG.
Lamb’s third season saw a significant leap forward to 17.7 PPG. Then, in his fourth year, Lamb became elite, averaging 23.7 PPG in an overall WR1 performance.
Until last year, Lamb’s PPG average had increased every year of his career. Of course, everyone expected that to end in 2024, as it’s rare for any wide receiver to top 23+ PPG more than once in his career.
Unfortunately, Lamb took a rather significant step backward, returning to where he was the previous season at 17.6 PPG. While he still posted true WR1 numbers, Lamb was more of a mid-WR1 than the elite game-breaking receiver he was in 2024.
There were several reasons for Lamb’s regression. The most obvious one was injury, and not just to himself. Lamb sprained his AC joint in his shoulder in Week 9. He played through it as long as he could, but the impact was noticeable, and it affected his play.
Lamb hurt his shoulder, and Prescott tore his hamstring in the same game. While not a huge difference, Lamb averaged 2.3 fewer PPG with Cooper Rush and Trey Lance than he did with Prescott.
Amidst all the above, something very strange occurred with Lamb’s halftime splits. For reasons that are hard to decipher, the overwhelming majority of Lamb’s production came in the first half of games before he put on a weekly disappearing act in the second half.
Lamb averaged 12.5 PPG in the first half of games against just 5.1 PPG in the second half. There were only two instances all season in which Lamb scored more fantasy points in the second half of a game than he did in the first.
I’m not sure if this data is actionable or if fantasy managers can do anything with it, but it’s interesting nonetheless.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
This year, fantasy managers are showing no concern about Lamb rebounding to elite status. He is the overall WR3 by ADP and typically goes in the first half of the first round, which is pretty much exactly where he went last year.
You can’t go wrong with any of the big three at wide receiver (Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase), but there is a strong argument to be made that Lamb could be the overall WR1.
Lamb’s setup for 2025 is pretty ideal. The Cowboys finally have a WR2 after two years of mostly nothing since trading away Amari Cooper.
George Pickens not only gives this offense another threat defenses have to worry about, but he is truly the perfect complement to Lamb. Pickens’ skill set is downfield throws and contested catches. Lamb is more of a precision route runner who moves into the slot frequently and wins underneath. Pickens will take targets from the Cowboys’ rotation of backups, not Lamb.
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens – just look at their reception heat maps
This WILL work and probably work very very well for the #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/7sryBmv2K1
— Ray G (@RayGQue) May 7, 2025
The more important reason to get excited about Lamb this year is the way this team is structured. The Cowboys rank 25th in PFSN’s Defense+ metric. As a reminder, the last time the Cowboys had a terrible defense, Prescott was on pace to shatter the single-season passing yards record as the offense lit up the scoreboard by necessity in 2020.
The Cowboys also have one of the worst running back rooms in NFL history and a head coach, Brian Schottenheimer, who lost his previous job in Seattle for, in part, wanting to throw too much.
The stars are aligning for a season in which the Cowboys constantly have to keep pace on the scoreboard, while also throwing a lot due to an ineffective run game.
I also have Lamb ranked as my WR3 because I can’t quite put him above Chase or Jefferson. However, the gap between the three is minimal, and fantasy managers should be thrilled to select Lamb as the cornerstone of their 2025 rosters.
Frank Ammirante’s CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Projection
CeeDee Lamb is a great bet for a bounce-back season following a disappointing year where he had suppressed production due to Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury.Â
The Cowboys barely invested in their running back room, allowing Rico Dowdle to walk in free agency, while replacing him with veterans past their prime in Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders. In the draft, Dallas selected Jaydon Blue, who is more of a scatback, in the fifth round.
What does this mean for Lamb? It means that they have built a pass-heavy offense that should be among the league leaders in volume. You also have to consider the addition of WR George Pickens, a deep-threat who fits perfectly with Lamb. Pickens’ ability to take the top off defenses will allow Lamb to have more room in the short-to-intermediate passing game.Â
Aside from fit, it will also help the Cowboys be more efficient and score more points. With that in mind, Lamb is entrenched as a top-three wideout who has a legitimate chance at being the top scorer in fantasy football this season.
