Caleb Williams enters the 2026 fantasy football season primed for another step forward, with all signs pointing toward a monster campaign as he fully masters this Ben Johnson offensive scheme. Last year, he nearly became the first quarterback in Bears history to throw for 4,000 yards, and we already know what he offers on the ground after he ran for nearly 500 yards as a rookie.
Should You Draft Caleb Williams in Fantasy Football?
Currently in PFN’s Free Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator, Caleb is going off the board with an ADP of 76.2. Depending on how many people are in your league, that’s about an 8th-round pick, give or take. PFN fantasy football experts Jason Katz and Kyle Soppe have Caleb in a similar range. They have him as the 73rd overall player on their board. That’s QB7 overall, with a projected 18.31 points per game.
Caleb is coming off a great year, especially from a fantasy perspective. He finished as QB5 last year. He’s been healthy for all 17 games in each of the last two seasons. Injuries are tough to predict. You never know what’s going to happen, but his health thus far is encouraging. He came really close to 4,000 passing yards last year, and there were a lot of really close games.
All that said, the general consensus seems to be that the Bears could be a regression candidate. I think there’s some validity to it. I don’t know if every single aspect of that is going to come true, but I do anticipate the Bears are going to be throwing the ball a lot again this year, and there are going to be a lot of close games, especially when you look at that defensive line. They didn’t make too many upgrades there.
The defense could be better as far as getting opposing offenses off the field, but it might not have the same turnover look. It’s a two-edged sword, and that could affect Caleb one way or the other. It remains to be seen.
As QB7, though, I think that’s pretty fair value. He’s not somebody I’m going out of my way to reach for, which is saying a lot. It’s taking restraint to remove my bias as a Bears fan from it. But in Ben Johnson’s offense, with the young weapons he has, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze, and Luther Burden III in particular, there’s a lot of upside with Caleb. There’s also the rushing ability that Williams has. But I’m not going out of my way to go much higher than his current ADP, and I think that 76.2 is pretty fair.
If you can get a good handful of starters in the mix and then add Caleb, I think it’s possible. But say there’s a run on quarterbacks in the 4th or 5th round, I’m not going out of my way to reach on Williams in particular when there are a handful of other talented quarterbacks in that QB10 to QB16 range.
At his ADP, I definitely like it, but I’d say be wary with Williams in particular as far as reaching for him. If there’s a run on quarterbacks, I’d say focus on other positions and then settle for a little lesser value at quarterback. But if things go to chalk according to the ADP in the PFN fantasy simulator, then I think Williams is definitely a strong buy at his current ADP.
FANTASY RANKINGS: PFN’s FREE Fantasy PPR, Half-PPR, and Non-PPR Rankings
Caleb Williams’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis provided by PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe.
We painted the QB position as a top-heavy one this summer, and I think that’s right.
For the season as a whole.
On a week-to-week basis, things change. Josh Allen (at HOU) and Drake Maye (at SEA) have tough matchups to open the season, and that has me believing that eight different signal callers could realistically lead the position in fantasy points this week.
Buckle up!
Williams ended last season with 5 straight multi-pass TD games (he made it 7 straight if you include the playoff games against the Packers and Rams) and, spoiler alert, he’s on that list.
The Panthers were the second-worst third-down defense a year ago, and I fully expect this Ben Johnson machine to sustain the momentum they ended last year with. I’ve got Williams set to run for 500 yards this year in addition to becoming the first Bear to throw for 4,000 yards, and I’m penciling in his first 30-pass TD season … I don’t see Carolina standing in his way.
It might surprise you to know that this defense didn’t allow a single QB to score 25 fantasy points, but part of that metric was the result of blowouts. I’m not sure that this Bears defense truly allows for that, and as long as things remain reasonably competitive, Williams is live to lead all players in Week 1 scoring.
START PREPARING: PFN’s FREE Fantasy Draft Simulator
Where Williams Ranks Among 2026 Quarterbacks
- Drake Maye | NE
- Lamar Jackson | BAL
- Jayden Daniels | WAS
- Joe Burrow | CIN
- Jalen Hurts | PHI
- Caleb Williams | CHI
- Justin Herbert | LAC
- Jaxson Dart | NYG
- Trevor Lawrence | JAX
- Dak Prescott | DAL
- Bo Nix | DEN
Check the full position group on PFN’s 2026 PPR Quarterback Board.
