DeVonta Smith walks into the featured role with the Eagles now that A.J. Brown is out of town. The target volume should spike, but does that make him a target in fantasy football as he adjusts to the new responsibilities?
Should You Draft DeVonta Smith in Fantasy Football?
Start with Smith’s ADP in PFN’s Free Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator. We have him going at 35.2. That is around the second half of the 3rd round. He is our consensus WR16, which is me and my colleague Kyle Soppe. His projected fantasy points per game output is 14.25. I think that is going to be a little low.
Smith is one of my favorite picks in fantasy football this season. Prior to last season, which was a down year across the board for the Eagles offense, Smith averaged 15, 14.2, and 15.3 points per game. He was a solid WR2 every year, and that’s even playing alongside A.J. Brown, who, as we know, is no longer with the Eagles.
Everything out of the Eagles’ camp has been that they believe in Smith as a WR1. And so do I. I think he has true alpha capabilities, because every time they’ve treated him like their true alpha, he’s delivered. In games where he’s seen at least 8 targets, he’s averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game, and I certainly think he’s going to average 8 targets per game this season. In games without A.J. Brown, he’s been at 16.2 points per game.
We have proven WR1 production from Smith every time he is either treated like the alpha or has no A.J. Brown. I believe both of those things will happen this season, and one of them is a certainty because A.J. Brown is not there. He saw a 24.3% target share and a 22.2% targets per route run rate last season. Both of those numbers are going to go up without question.
For his target competition, we have Dontayvion Wicks, who’s a rotational WR3 type guy. We have rookie Makai Lemon, who I think is talented, but he’s been dealing with lingering hamstring issues in training camp and might take a little time to get up to speed. Again, there’s plenty of room for a WR2 here. Makai Lemon can be what Smith was while Smith becomes what A.J. Brown was. It all works out.
I am not concerned at all about Hollywood Brown. He’s probably going to see, pending health, fewer than 30 targets on the season. The Eagles’ WR3 or WR4 typically is not relevant. Not an issue at all.
Jalen Hurts struggled last season, but I think he gets unfairly maligned. This is still a quarterback who has been to two Super Bowls and won one. Hurts is talented, and he’s shown he can support a WR1 in A.J. Brown. Why can’t he do it with Smith?
I blame a lot of what happened to the Eagles last year on Kevin Patullo. I think he will go down as one of the worst offensive coordinators the NFL has ever seen. I’m very confident in what this year’s offense will look like with someone else calling the plays. All of that combined has me very much in on Smith. He is a strong target for me as early as the early part of the 3rd.
FANTASY RANKINGS: PFN’s FREE Fantasy PPR, Half-PPR, and Non-PPR Rankings
DeVonta Smith’s Week 1 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis provided by PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe.
The Commanders have held a bottom-3 Defensive Impact grade in consecutive seasons, and guess what?
For whatever reason, they’ve held Smith in check in 4 matchups over that stretch.
43.5 yards per game
9.2 yards per catch
1.6 yards per route
None of that looks like you’d expect in this plus-matchup. Personally, I’m of the belief that those numbers are simply a goofy run of variance. Last season, Washington struggled to create pressure, and its ranking in that regard fell further when sending help with a blitzer. That’s a trend I expect to continue into this season, and with Smith now the unquestioned featured receiver, we could get a spike performance right out of the gates.
Smith has reached triple figures in terms of air yards 27 times in his career, and in those contests, he’s given us 17.8 PPR points per game. The target count is as safe as ever with A.J. Brown now in New England, and I expect this run-centric offense to take its fair share of deep shots to keep this Washington defense honest.
His first 1,200-yard season is very much in play this year, and I think he’ll be ahead of that pace by week’s end.
START PREPARING: PFN’s FREE Fantasy Draft Simulator
Where Smith Ranks Among 2026 Wide Receivers
- Rashee Rice | KC
- Chris Olave | NO
- Zay Flowers | BAL
- Tee Higgins | CIN
- Jaylen Waddle | DEN
- DeVonta Smith | PHI
- Ladd McConkey | LAC
- Emeka Egbuka | TB
- Terry McLaurin | WAS
- Tetairoa McMillan | CAR
- Garrett Wilson | NYJ
Compare him against the rest of the board in PFN’s Full PPR Wide Receiver Rankings.
