The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Tampa Bay Buccaneers players heading into their matchup with the New York Jets to help you craft a winning lineup.
Baker Mayfield, QB
I don’t know how you walk away from Monday Night Football without being super impressed with Baker Mayfield.
Sure, the game-saving scramble was nice, and the clutch throws, but how about him largely taking what was given to him? Sans a few forced throws to Mike Evans, Mayfield was responsibly aggressive.
I’m not sure I’ve ever used those words together, but it fits. He completed 11-of-12 passes when he targeted Bucky Irvin, Rachaad White, or Cade Otton against the Texans. That “take your medicine” approach figures to play well in this spot against the third-best blitzing defense in the league.
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The catch with New York is that when they don’t bring the blitz, they are nothing more than ordinary in terms of pressure rate. Mayfield can pick apart their blitz with the high-percentage passes we saw him eat up last week, and if they decide to sit back in coverage, I’m not sure anyone can deal with both Evans and Emeka Egbuka down the field.
Oh, yeah, and this game is being played at home, where the Bucs have leaned into their QB dictating their fate even more.
Opportunities per game, 2024
- Home: 39.7 per game
- Road: 34.1 per game
I’ve got Mayfield comfortably inside my top 10 this week and feel good about the floor he comes preloaded with, even in a seemingly difficult matchup.
Bucky Irving, RB
I don’t want to set the bar too high, but when I watch Bucky Irving play, I really do see 90% of Bijan Robinson, and considering that I have the Falcons star as my offensive player of the year bet, that’s saying something.
Irving glides in the open field and always seems to make a two-yard gain four yards. That may sound like peanuts, but add it up 15-20 times a game and/or around the end zone. Buy low.
Buy low and use this stat to do so (unless they read this article, in which case they are wise to the wool you’re trying to pull over their eyes): through two weeks, 74 players had a carry gaining more than 10 yards, and Irving is not one of them (Mac Jones, Tyrod Taylor, and Troy Franklin are, though!).
That’s a fun and quirky stat that is true for now. I don’t think it’ll last beyond this week, so I’d try to make a move in short order. The Jets’ matchup is tough on paper, but I believe that Irving’s abilities can transcend a tough spot.
The Bucs get the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Dolphins to end the fantasy season: you’re not going to care what you paid in Week 3 to get Irving when he’s busy winning you a championship around the holiday season.
Rachaad White, RB
I don’t want to be hyperbolic, but have we ever seen Rachaad White run as hard as he did on Monday night in Houston?
He carried 10 times for 65 yards, and every inch was hard-fought. The knock on White up to this point in his career has been his willingness to do the dirty work, and while he’s no real threat to usurp Bucky Irving, this performance very much forced me to raise him in the handcuff running back rankings.
I don’t see this offense consistently sustaining two viable running backs, so I’d caution against reacting too much to this impressive showing. White is a nice piece to have rostered as cheap exposure to an explosive offense, with the thought that should an injury occur, you’ll have yourself a top-20 player at the position.
The Bucs have as favorable a schedule during the fantasy playoffs as anyone, and that fact alone makes White roster depth worth acquiring in future weeks (keep an eye on the roster with him and pounce should they get in a desperate spot, health/record-wise).
Chris Godwin, WR
The Bucs activated Chris Godwin off the PUP list on August 21 (Week 7, fractured ankle), but it wasn’t until last Thursday that he returned to practice. The middle of October remains the current estimation for his return to action, but this is a situation that should be monitored weekly, if not daily.
This, of course, was baked into the draft day price tag on the 29-year-old. Unless something changes drastically, this will be the sixth time in seven years that Godwin has missed multiple games. But there is hope that the cautious rehab approach will result in him peaking at the right time for both the Bucs and his loyal fantasy managers.
Tampa Bay has a well-positioned Week 9 bye, which could allow Godwin to test his body to its limits in the second month of the season, knowing that an off week isn’t too far off.
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In any event, you drafted him with the hope that he’d be a 1,000-yard pace player for a seventh straight season with consistent volume for you when he hits the field, and we have no real reason to think he won’t be.
His lack of touchdowns was a concern heading into last season, but five of his 50 catches in 2021 resulted in scores, giving us hope that we are looking at a WR2 down the stretch. The Bucs close the season with about as favorable a schedule as anyone in the league, giving him an even better chance to impact your fantasy season massively, even if he’s not doing that in the first month.
- Week 13 vs. Cardinals
- Week 14 vs. Saints
- Week 15 vs. Falcons
- Week 16 at Panthers
- Week 17 at Dolphins
- Week 18 vs. Panthers
Emeka Egbuka, WR
These ultra-talented receivers are taking essentially no time to assert their dominance at the professional level. Think about the WR1 in New York (Giants), Seattle, Los Angeles (both!), Carolina, Atlanta, and Chicago, to name a few.
There appears to be essentially no learning curve for how these kids are entering the pros, and Emeka Egbuka might end up being the cream of the crop.
Players in the 2000s with 3 TD receptions in their first two career games:
- Martavis Bryant (2014)
- Jahan Dotson (2022)
- Emeka Egbuka (2025)
Pace: 68 catches and double-digit TD receptions. WRs in the 2000s to do that as a rookie:
- Brian Thomas Jr. (2024)
- Jordan Addison (2023)
- Ja’Marr Chase (2021)
- Mike Evans (2014)
- Odell Beckham (2014)
Baker Mayfield isn’t shy about featuring his top playmakers, and while Mike Evans is still getting plenty of looks, a veteran like that is at risk of seeing his usage taper off with time. At the same time, Egbuka’s role might continue to grow for the next two seasons.
He seemed to be dealing with a nagging injury on Monday night, and that deserves monitoring, but with three impressive scores and crisp route running, he’s the rookie in this class, not Ashton Jeanty, that is a stone-cold lineup lock.
Jalen McMillan, WR
Jalen McMillan showed up in spurts as a rookie, but scoring on 21.6% of receptions isn’t stable. Nor was the 17.8-yard average depth of target on those touchdowns.
There were plenty of holes to poke in this profile. Still, the drafting of Emeka Egbuka has him fighting for playing time and thus a non-factor in most formats when healthy, which clearly isn’t the case after a scary injury this preseason (currently on IR with an absence that extends beyond the required four games, viewed as the most likely outcome).
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There is some athletic ability here, which means spike plays are bound to happen, but I do not expect the route/target count to be high enough to garner our interest. If this turns into a WR rotation, we can adjust. But for the time being, McMillan is a player who holds contingent value when active, and that’s about it.
You’re not going this direction unless you have an IR spot burning a hole in your pocket.
Mike Evans, WR
We are nearing a “get off while the gettin’ is good” situation with Mike Evans. The 32-year-old can obviously still play; you don’t earn 19 targets through two weeks if you can’t, but Emeka Egbuka certainly looks like the better option, and when Chris Godwin returns, I can’t help but think that Evans’ target share could be at risk.
He’s caught five balls in both games this season, but his longest gain is 22 yards. Egbuka is the more dangerous downfield option and is being featured in scoring situations, something that drove Evans’ value for years (NFL leader in end zone targets from 2023-24).
One of the best wide receiver — cornerback matchups: A legend vs. an up-and-coming legend.
It is worth noting that he’s essentially been shadowed by a strong corner in both weeks thus far, and Sauce Gardner could make it three weeks in a row.
By “worth noting,” I mean “worth noting to your trade partner during negotiations.” Those matchups could allow you to explain away a bumpy start, especially if a big game happens in the near future. Should that occur, we are looking at a sell candidate that you can get out of before any real loss occurs. Stay tuned.
Cade Otton, TE
If you’ve been reading this piece for the past year or two, my thoughts on Cade Otton are clear and simple. Useless. I’m sure he’s a nice person, but for our game, I couldn’t be less interested. His route count always gets mentioned when we get into bye weeks, and you need a filler.
“He’ll be on the field, and that’s a good start.” Conceptually, yes, that tracks. But when the man is averaging 0.34 yards per route this season, does it matter? The loss of Chris Godwin up to this point hasn’t pointed Baker Mayfield in Otton’s direction any more this year than last, and I expect that to continue.
If you start typing a “Do I play Otton or ___” question to me on Twitter (at KyleSoppPFN), you can save yourself the time.
