The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Tampa Bay Buccaneers players heading into their matchup with the Carolina Panthers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Baker Mayfield, QB
Is there a correlation between commercial volume and performance for Baker Mayfield?
He broke the record for TD passes by a rookie in 2018, had a shaky 2019 season, bounced back with a fun 2020 campaign, and started appearing in elite commercials.
Elite. High-end. Top notch. No notes.
But then he disappeared from our collective radar. He struggled in 2021 with the Browns, underwhelmed in 2022 with the Panthers, before being traded to the Rams and having a decisive moment in an otherwise unimpressive season.
The commercials dried up. We only had memories of them.
He was phenomenal last season and was an MVP frontrunner through the first six weeks this season.
The commercials come back. He’s inventing celebrations and once again making us laugh. I call my parents, and they are quoting his lines. He was back on the national radar in that way … and he hasn’t been the same since.
He’s been intercepted five times in his past five games and has completed under 58% of his passes in four of those contests.
I think we see the commercials come down this week and the good Baker return!
I wasn’t impressed with his performance on Thursday night, but 59.4% of his targets went to Mike Evans or Emeka Egbuka, and that’s his path to fantasy greatness. Heck, he even showcased the willingness to explore upside with Jalen McMillan last week with a pair of 19-yard completions, one of which ended on the one-inch line and very easily could have resulted in a score (was ruled as such on the field).
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Tyler Shough and Tua Tagovailoa are on the list of QBs to score 19+ fantasy points against the Panthers this season. They can be had through the air, and with Bucky Irving averaging under four yards per carry in all three of his games back from injury, I’m expecting Todd Bowles to want his fate in the hands of this now healthy passing game.
It’s been a tough pill over the past month-plus, but I’m comfortable with Mayfield as a top 10 QB this weekend and think you should be too.
Bucky Irving, RB
Thursday night was supposed to be a spot for Bucky Irving to party like it was 2024. As a rookie, he was one of the more valuable fantasy assets during the playoff run, and after two weeks of proving his health, this game against the Falcons looked like a spot where he could swing your matchup.
And he did, but in the wrong direction.
He picked up 11 yards on the first play of the game and 11 yards via a checkdown reception on the next one. It started so promising, and that makes the struggles that followed all the more painful.
After those two touches, Irving turned 15 touches into just 49 yards with zero touchdowns and zero receptions (two targets). Sean Tucker vultured the short touchdown, and Mike Evans was back to earning targets like peak Mike Evans despite him clearly being at far less than full strength.
If you’re wondering, yes, I was counting on Irving in a prominent spot too. It hurt.
If you survived, I think you would go back to him without a second thought. In both Carolina games last year, he had 20+ carries, 110+ rushing yards, and 30+ receiving yards. Rachaad White is a low-end specialist, while Tucker isn’t considered an option between the 20s: there’s not much standing in the way of him flirting with 20 touches in this must-win game.
Bet on the talent instead of fearing the Week 15 result.
Rachaad White, RB
Rachaad White got his first carry on the second drive last week and made it count. It was a hard-nosed run that picked up 20 yards, his longest run of the season.
He got one more touch the rest of the night.
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His resume speaks for itself: he’s not an average runner between the tackles, an opinion that the Bucs proved to us on Thursday night that they share. In the loss, 68% of his snaps were routes run, and that’s just not going to cut it when this backfield is at full strength.
Irving is just as savvy as White in space as a pass catcher, so why take the starter off the field?
White is going to be on the field more than Sean Tucker, but if I had to pick a secondary Buccaneer RB to gamble on in a do-or-die spot, I’d rather chase the touchdown equity of Tucker.
Sean Tucker, RB
This Tampa Bay backfield is a committee in the sense that all three parties have their specific roles, but not in the way that those particular roles are equal in value.
Sean Tucker played just seven snaps on Thursday night against the Falcons, but six of them came in the red zone, and he cashed in the one-inch touchdown in the first half to fuel his outing of Rachaad White and nearly catching Bucky Irving.
He’s a touchdown vulture and nothing more. The Bucs value him, but with Irving healthy, he’s pigeon-holed into a very low-volume role and, to be honest, I’m not even 100% sure that a carry inside the 5-yard line automatically goes this direction.
If you want to roster Tucker as a way of blocking your opponent from getting a TD-friendly role in the most crucial game of the week, have at it, but I can’t imagine starting him in anything but the most desperate of situations, a spot you’re hopefully not in during the fantasy semis.
Chris Godwin Jr., WR
Chris Godwin had an octopus on Thursday night against the Falcons, pulling a tough fantasy day out of the fire in the process.
With Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan both returning from injury, Godwin was the primary slot option, but very much an afterthought outside of the touchdown and the accompanying two-pointer (his first target came halfway through the second quarter).
I still think you’re OK to flex him in PPR formats.
He ran a route on 38-of-40 dropbacks last week and has looked good when given the opportunity over the past three weeks. The range of outcomes is greater this week than it was prior to this WR getting healthy, but his unique skill set still projects well in an offense that trusts its QB at a high level and is in a must-win spot.
Emeka Egbuka, WR
Early November was the last time that Emeka Egbuka scored 10.5+ PPR points. Whether you want to blame a rookie wall, subpar play from Baker Mayfield, or a combination of both, it’s hard to feel great about him this weekend after Mike Evans impressed in his return to the lineup on Thursday night.
His type of target last week didn’t change dramatically with Evans back (14.7 aDOT, 15.2 in the three weeks prior), but his target share (21.9%) was its lowest since Week 6, and that’s where the risk comes into play.
Egbuka has a sub-50% catch rate this season and has earned just one end zone target over the past month. The talent we saw over the first five weeks is still there, which is why he’s in the mix for starter consideration. That said, I view his floor as the lowest of the three primary receivers on this offense, and that’s giving me pause in starting him this week.
For me, starting Egbuka requires context. Are you favored to win? Do you have a roster full of risk/reward players? The more safety and certainty you have elsewhere, the more likely I am to bet on raw ability and plug in the rookie. If you’re already swallowing downside at your WR2 and RB2 slots, then I’d lean in the direction of a more consistent receiver.
Mike Evans, WR
I’d argue that Mike Evans was the most actionable takeaway from Thursday night.
Yes, more actionable than Kyle Pitts single-handedly swinging your playoff quarterfinal matchup.
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Pitts was a fantasy starter in good form entering his earth-shattering game and he’s a fantasy starter coming out of it. Of course, you’re playing him with more confidence this week than last, but the actionable shift is minimal.
Evans took the field for the first time in nearly two months, looked like he was at risk on every snap physically, and yet he finished with a 6-132-0 stat line against the Falcons.
It didn’t happen by accident. Evans saw a 44.4% target share in the first half (his highest in the first 30 minutes in a regular season game since Week 6 of 2019) and it was clear that the Bucs identified CB Cobee Bryant as a pressure point that they wanted to attack as often as humanly possible, even if it meant weighing down their veteran receiver with vulnerable targets coming off of the broken collarbone.
Week 15 WR Snaps/Routes/Targets
- Chris Godwin: 58 / 38 / 5
- Evans: 31 / 28 / 12
- Emeka Egbuka: 39 / 25 / 7
- Jalen McMillan: 30 / 20 / 2
- Tez Johnson: 14 / 9 / 1
He wasn’t out there on run plays where he was taking unnecessary shots. The Bucs were thoughtful in their snaps and wanted to use their bullets in a meaningful way: that’s all we can really ask for.
The loss last week was a tough result, but if Tampa Bay can sweep Carolina over the next three weeks, they’ll have a home playoff game. That makes this a playoff game, and based on what we saw last week, Evans is going to be a prominent part of the game plan.
He’s earned at least eight targets in all of his healthy games this season, and it’s hard to project anything different to take place this week (8+ catches, 95+ yards, and 1+ touchdowns in both Panther games last season). I expect Carolina to allocate more resources to covering the future Hall of Famer than the Falcons did last week, with his health unknown, and that introduces some downside, but he’s a WR2 across all formats.
