The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Denver Broncos players heading into their matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles to help you craft a winning lineup.
Bo Nix, QB
Bo Nix took advantage of a great spot on Monday night against the Bengals team that already wants the season to end, and that was great to see, but forgive me if that wasn’t enough to sell me on him now being the top 10 guy we drafted him to be as he heads to Philadelphia.
Forget the Eagles’ defense for a minute: their offense can be a fantasy limitation device as well. Nix was able to tear up Cincinnati on Monday night in part because Denver had the ball for nearly 38 minutes.
Philadelphia, not surprisingly, is the leader in average time of possession since the beginning of last season, and that alone puts Nix in a bind to repeat his success.
In terms of the matchup, the Eagles’ pressure could ruin this game. Nix’s struggles this season have come when he is pushed outside of the pocket, as his passer rating in such situations sits at 52.4, down from 97.5 as a rookie.
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I expect this to be a low-scoring contest, with Denver viewing it as a situation where the less they ask of Nix, the better. He’s not a top-15 signal-caller for me in Week 5.
J.K. Dobbins, RB
J.K. Dobbins has seen his rushing yardage improve each week and has three top 20 performances under his belt through four weeks.
I was out on Dobbins this summer, fearing the limited work in the pass game, the health track record, and the potential of RJ Harvey.
I’ve been wrong so far, but I do think I could win the war, despite losing the September battle.
The health thing is what it is: a 15-17 touch role is a lot to ask for from a player who has struggled to stay on the field for half a decade now.
The passing game? Dobbins doesn’t yet have a multi-catch game and is averaging 4.5 receiving yards per game.
The rookie? Harvey is coming off his best game of the season. Now, it came against the Bengals, and that’s important, but the confidence he gained and the reps he put on tape for Sean Payton are also important.
Dobbins is a viable RB2 for now, and I expect that to be the case as long as he remains healthy. How long do you wait to cash in this chip?
Courtland Sutton, WR
That’s now three of four weeks in which Courtland Sutton has caught at least a handful of passes with a touchdown, as he seems to have weathered the Nix storm.
Sean Payton is playing with the usage rates and roles of everyone in this offense besides Sutton, which puts his WR1 in the fantasy WR1 conversation this weekend, even in a tough matchup.
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Sutton’s aDOT, route tree, and target rate are all in line with what we saw last season. In fact, the one thing that stands out as different is a dip in red zone usage, something that hints that there is room for growth as we approach the middle of the fantasy season.
Evan Engram, TE
A calf injury was ailing Evan Engram entering Week 2, and while he seemed to heal up okay from that, an achy back cost him Week 3.
It’s a bit of a walking wounded situation with him right now, and that makes him a risk I’m not comfortable with at the moment. Engram managed to earn seven targets on 27 routes in Denver’s blowout win over the Bengals on Monday night, usage that supported him finishing sixth for the night in receiving yards.
Maybe Nix turned a corner in the win, and Engram stands to benefit long-term. I’d love to express that optimism, but I need more than a single data point to suggest that, especially one that came on an extended workweek, at home, against one of the five worst defenses in the league.
