The fantasy football landscape shifts dramatically after Week 17, as unexpected performances and emerging storylines reshape our expectations for the season ahead. Some players exceed all projections, while others leave managers scratching their heads, wondering if early concerns were justified or simply growing pains.
Christmas Night’s Denver Broncos-Kansas City Chiefs matchup could provide crucial clarity on several key start/sit situations for both AFC powerhouses. Get ready to dive deep into the developments that could make or break your fantasy team’s Week 17 performance.
Denver Broncos
Bo Nix, QB
Bo Nix got the rate game script bump last week, and that resulted in season highs in pass attempts (47) and pass yards (352) against the Jags.
Despite all of the volume, he had just the one touchdown pass to speak of, and that has been a problem of late. He lit up the Packers in Week 15, but if you remove that, his most recent four games have him throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions on 167 attempts.
That’s inefficient at a crazy level.
From a holistic perspective, I like where this profile is headed. This was a big game, and he led an offense that saw seven players record multiple catches, with four players reaching four receptions.
There are some bumps every week, but he’s trending in the right direction and is in the right offensive environment to develop. Would I feel great about playing him in Kansas City this week?
No. The range of outcomes is wider than what I’m comfortable with, and not much may be asked of him if the version of the Chiefs that we saw last week is the version that takes the field here.
Nix isn’t a player you need to avoid blindly, but I would take a look at the wire and check out the matchups.
RJ Harvey, RB
No running back is going to score once every 14.4 touches for his career.
That’s just a fact. If you need context around that rate, consider that Barry Sanders scored one every 31.3 touches for his career.
It’s not sustainable, and I’m not going to act like it is. But “flucky” and “not sustainable” are two different things, and I encourage you to watch RJ Harvey’s 38-yard touchdown run last week against the Jags.
There is nothing “fluky” about how hard this dude runs.
Sean Payton has given the rookie the keys to the backfield. Harvey had more touches last week, and Jaleel McLaughlin had snaps, and while the efficiency numbers are going to draw back some, I have zero hesitation about plugging him in as the Broncos chase the conference’s top seed against a divisional rival that is drawing dead.
Courtland Sutton, WR
It took some time, but I feel good about Courtland Sutton being the WR1 on this offense (over 26% target share in three straight), and against a dead Chiefs team, that’s enough to get inside of my top 20 as this team chases the AFC’s top seed.
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Week 11 snapped Sutton’s four-game scoring streak against the Chiefs. He’s never had much yardage upside in this spot despite the scoring success (two games since the pandemic with 60+ yards), but that could change against a defense that allowed Cam Ward to average 8.1 yards per pass last week.
There’s a ton of WR talent that will be on display during your Christmas festivities, and I fully expect Sutton to show well and potentially post his third straight top 15 finish.
Pat Bryant, WR
Pat Bryant was unable to suit up in Week 15 due to a hamstring injury, but he showed no signs of limitations against the Jags last weekend.
- 8 targets
- 5 catches
- 42 yards
- 31 routes
Ideally, we would earn more on a per-catch basis, but in terms of opportunity earnings, that’s solid.
That all happened before he took a scary shot to his head, one that landed him in the hospital following the game.
All reports suggest that concussion protocol is underway and that he was fortunate to avoid a more serious injury given the nature of the hit. Denver has punched their ticket to the postseason, and while the race for the one-seed is essential, I’m counting on them taking a cautious approach for this week at the very least with the third-round rookie.
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Troy Franklin gets a boost, and Evan Engram’s loyal fans get a breath of life under this assumption. Bryant is an interesting second-year bump candidate for next season, maybe in the same vein as what we saw George Pickens do in his second season (1,140 yards and five scores).
Troy Franklin, WR
Franklin is averaging 11.4 PPR points per game and, through 16 weeks, sits as fantasy’s WR36.
That’s fine, and that’s probably where you’d blindly put him in the ranks if you were just to go through the games and eyeball it.
If you were ranking for months at a time, I’d be fine with that placement, but this is a weekly game, and there is a split to chase.
- With Pat Bryant On The Field: 16.4% target share, 1.18 yards/route, 26.1% of catches come in the slot.
- With Pat Bryant Off The Field: 21.4% target share, 1.88 yards/route, 55.3% of catches come in the slot
He’s a different receiver, and that bottom split is the situation we expect to find ourselves in due to a Week 16 concussion. We saw DJ Moore walk off the Packers and Stefon Diggs perform over expectations last week … I’d play Franklin over both of them against a Chiefs team that is close to, if not already, checked out.
Evan Engram, TE
I had such high expectations for Engram this season, and I was wrong in a significant way.
Last week, we did see him nearly double the route count of Adam Trautman, something that wasn’t the case in Week 1,5, and with Bryant banged up, there’s a theoretical path to him being one of the sneakier plays of the week.
Go this way in a showdown DFS contest or something along those lines: it doesn’t make sense to swallow this amount of risk (one end zone target this season and only one 40+ yard game since mid-October) in a season-long finale.
Kansas City Chiefs
Gardner Minshew, QB
The matchup with the Titans was promising, but with Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton both dealing with concussion protocols, Gardner Minshew wasn’t exactly working with Grade A talent.
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He completed just three of eight passes (two to Isiah Pacheco) before being ruled out for the rest of the game due to a knee injury suffered in the second quarter. This is truly an example of a team just trying to finish their season, and that means counting on anyone attached to it is risky at best and “reckless” might be the better descriptive word.
Brashard Smith, RB
I’ll admit it.
I got a little too cute last week in labeling Brashard Smith as a must-have player.
I stand by the idea (dead team, talented rookie), but he played just eight snaps in the loss to the Titans, and it was Isiah Pacheco flashing in the short passing game, the role I thought Smith could step into (seven targets on 20 routes).
It still wouldn’t surprise me if he got more run over these final two weeks, but asking him to turn a handful of opportunities into meaningful fantasy numbers, given the state of this offense, would be a stretch.
We will see what Kansas City does with their backfield this summer: Smith could be an interesting handcuff if things break the right way.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
Does that count?
I was high on Pacheco this preseason, and if you started him last week, you benefited with 13.5 PPR points.
I’m kidding.
Everyone knows that you were eliminated a long time ago if you took my advice on him.
Pacheco played 72.1% of the snaps and got the (only) running back red zone touch. In the loss to the Titans, yes, those five words are harsh to type, but he handled 14 of 18 running back touches and was featured from the jump as this team plays out the string.
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Another QB change to navigate makes this situation impossible to feel good about, but at least we have an increased level of clarity as to the hierarchy of this offense. The 31-yard catch was his longest gain of the season, and we know how this goes …
Pacheco is going to show enough over the final few weeks to suck me back in. I can feel it.
He’s outside of my top 30 this week: I’m not having my championship decided by this decimated offense.
Kareem Hunt, RB
We were begging for clarity in this backfield, and all it took was for a dynastic team to be eliminated from playoff contention and to lose their top two QBs to ACL tears.
Kareem Hunt was on the field for just 25.6% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps last week in Tennessee ( his second-lowest rate of the season), and the only time I noticed him was on a second-quarter carry where he was swallowed up about three yards into his own end zone for a safety.
When all was said and done, Hunt wasn’t a change of pace option to Pacheco and, for just the third time this year, finished a contest without a red zone touch.
I’m reasonably confident that there isn’t value to chase in this backfield, but I’m very optimistic that if you’re looking to do so, Hunt isn’t the answer.
Marquise Brown, WR
We thought it might be the case, and last week in Tennessee proved it to be true: we are done with the 2025 Chiefs.
Personally, I think it’s premature to say this dynastic run is over, but I have no reservations in saying that we are onto 2026 when it comes to this franchise. Against one of the worst teams in the league, their 24 passes netted 82 yards with no real touchdown equity.
Marquise Brown led the pass catchers in receptions with three, but is that saying anything of consequence with Rice and Tyquan Thornton sidelined? This offense has been a foundational piece of fantasy championships at various points over the past decade, but don’t get sucked in. There’s no value in streaming any of the available pieces of this unit.
Rashee Rice, WR
It’s impossible to know if Rice (concussion) would have been rushed through protocol faster had the Chiefs won in Week 15, thus keeping the motivation to compete there, but he sat out, and it’s possible that we don’t see Kansas City’s star again this year.
Rice has one more year on his contract, and if Patrick Mahomes’ recovery goes as planned, I’m going to have his WR1 ranked as a top-10 play at the position next season. The Minshew experience (at best) to finish this season obviously introduces more of a floor than Rice held previously. Still, if he is deemed healthy and there are no mentions of a snap count, then I’m comfortable with playing him as a top 20 wideout.
If I lose my league because I played a healthy WR that I view as a top-10 talent, I can live with that. However, I’ll struggle to sleep if I bench him and he posts his fifth top-10 finish of the season.
Xavier Worthy, WR
For 2025, we’ve been done for a while when it comes to Xavier Worthy.
The burner has posted a sub-14% target share in three straight and has failed to score 10 PPR points in six of his past seven. His aDOT is up 36.2% from where it stood a season ago, and I think his role/route tree is genuinely something that Andy Reid will reevaluate this offseason.
What made him so effective in 2024’s run to an AFC crown?
The Rice moving piece is certainly something that needs to be considered, but there must be a way for us to be in a better position when Patrick Mahomes returns than we were in 2025.
Remember in Week 1? He was targeted twice early, left injured, and saw Brown step into his role and earn double-digit targets without a problem.
If the Chiefs rebound as a team from this nightmare season, I think Worthy holds the key. That opens me up to the idea of buying low on him this summer, but it’ll depend on where his ADP settles.
Travis Kelce, TE
I could tell you that Travis Kelce has a touchdown in two straight Broncos games or that the future Hall of Famer has earned at least nine looks in six straight against the divisional rival, but does it matter?
This offense is broken, and the future is uncertain for the tight end at best. He turned four targets into six yards last week in Tennessee and has eclipsed 45 receiving yards just once over the past month.
If you want to build up the narrative of him going out with a bang, go nuts. From a numbers and trends standpoint, there’s little to suggest that anyone from this offense is going to be viable this week.
Brenton Strange, Hunter Henry, Darren Waller, etc.
There is someone on your waiver wire with a more appealing Week 17 outlook than Kelce.
