In a rookie class that featured the wide receiver star power of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze, it was Brian Thomas Jr. who wound up being the second-best of the bunch. Looking to build on his impressive rookie campaign, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ top wide receiver comes with a hefty price increase in fantasy football drafts. Is Thomas poised for even greater heights in 2025?
Should You Draft Brian Thomas Jr. in Fantasy?
There are a handful of players who are true league winners every year, and Thomas was one of them.
With an average draft position ranging from the seventh to ninth rounds, depending on when you drafted, Thomas gave fantasy managers 16.7 fantasy points per game, making him one of the best values of 2024.
In the most critical weeks of the fantasy season, Thomas posted 32.5, 28.2, and 23.9-point games, carrying fantasy managers to championships. The crazy part is that Thomas was both better than his numbers indicated and should have been even better.
Thomas did not open the season as an every-down player. He hit an 80% snap share just once in his first seven games.
Once Thomas started to hit his stride, he suffered a rib injury. That injury didn’t cost him any games, but it hindered his ability on the field.
Thomas posted 6.2 and 3.2 fantasy points in Weeks 9 and 10, the games he was most affected by the issue. If we remove those games, he would have averaged 18.3 PPG. As a reminder, he did that with Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones at quarterback. Imagine if he had competent QB play.
It’s pretty incredible that Brian Thomas Jr. had this much production left on the field last year and still finished 3rd in the NFL in receiving yards. pic.twitter.com/6P0XQn7bje
— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) May 29, 2025
If only a couple of these deep balls connect, we could be talking about Thomas coming off a top-five WR season as a rookie.
Thomas averaged 2.55 yards per route run, eighth in the league, and 9.6 yards per target, 15th in the league. This player was efficient as a rookie, but he did not see nearly as much volume as he should have given his ability.
Thomas saw a 25.5% target share and was targeted on 26.5% of his routes run, both of which ranked 20th. There are certainly not 19 wide receivers who should see more volume than Thomas.
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Entering his sophomore season, we should see plenty of growth from Thomas. He has the potential to push a 30% target share, and there’s plenty of room for him to be targeted more frequently, especially considering the consolidated nature of the Jaguars’ passing attack, which features no real threats outside of Thomas and rookie Travis Hunter.
New head coach Liam Coen was the architect behind Baker Mayfield’s career season in 2024. He coaxed another WR1 season out of 31-year-old Mike Evans and had Chris Godwin pushing 20 PPG before the latter broke his ankle in Week 7.
Thomas’ WR8 ADP may seem expensive, but there’s a ton of room for growth for an already great player.
The Jaguars do not project to have a particularly great backfield, meaning this team could throw a ton, especially with a defense checking in at No. 31 in PFSN’s Defense+ metric.
Last season, the Jaguars only had a 64% pass rate when trailing by 7+ points, the 12th lowest in the league. Even when losing, they were running more than they should have been. We could be in store for more volume and better play calling from a smart, young offensive mind. I rank Thomas as my WR7 and would be thrilled to pick at the back end and make him the cornerstone of my fantasy teams.
Dan Fornek’s Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Projection
Arguably, the most shocking top 12 wide receiver season in 2024 came from Brian Thomas Jr. He burst onto the scene as a rookie, catching 87 of 133 passes for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns despite playing with Mac Jones for 10 games. He finished as the WR11 in PPR points per game (16.7) among wide receivers with a minimum of eight games played.
The rookie finished eighth among wide receivers in air yards (1,542) and fifth in deep targets (28), but was sixth in unrealized air yards (822). He finished eighth in yards per route run (2.55) despite the lack of connection on deep targets.
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Jacksonville worked hard to transform its passing attack to help Trevor Lawrence succeed. The team added Dyami Brown in free agency and traded up to select Travis Hunter in the NFL Draft with the second overall pick. The team also added veteran offensive linemen to try to improve the talent in that group. The most significant move was securing former Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen as the head coach.
Coen built an offense that made Chris Godwin one of the most effective wide receivers in the NFL before his ankle injury. Despite that loss, Baker Mayfield finished with 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns. If Coen can get the same level of play from Lawrence, Thomas Jr. could finish as the WR1 in 2025 despite the added target competition.
