The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Buffalo Bills players heading into their matchup with the New York Jets to help you craft a winning lineup.
Josh Allen, QB
The Bills are in a tough spot to move up in a meaningful way, seeding-wise, and that means we probably don’t see much of Josh Allen this weekend (X-rays on his ankle following the game give Buffalo every excuse they need).
There are a ton of reasons to not play your championship in Week 18, and this figures to be one of many. Be the change your league needs if your playoffs extend this far. Crown your champion in Week 17, and if you still need a sweat, play a DFS contest with the loser paying the way for the winner in 2026.
There’s nothing I can tell you about Allen that you don’t already know. He’s a unicorn that has cleared 3,600 passing yards and 500 rushing yards in three straight seasons, accounting for 123 touchdowns in the process.
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He’s matured as a passer, even if we still get the 20+ yard sacks or 30+ yard loss on fumbles that we saw in the loss to Philly last week. He’s completed 75.9% of his third-down passes this season, a career best and well ahead of his 64.9% career rate.
Those are the microgains for a player at this level. I’m not worried about the skill set, but a stat like that allows him to stay on the field, and time is of the essence when it comes to Allen. He was part of a cluster at the top of the position entering this season, and he’s separated himself as the top fantasy QB for 2026 without much debate.
James Cook, RB
At no point did James Cook excel on Sunday against the Eagles, and while that might sound like a knock on him, I was actually encouraged by the discouraging performance.
That sentence may sound as if I’ve had a little too much eggnog over the past week, but hang with me here.
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In a tough matchup and the division crown still possible, he got 20 carries and four targets. Sean McDermott wanted his best players to decide that game (hence the two-point try at the end and not allowing Jalen Hurts another snap), and it’s pretty clear that he has two players he wants to funnel everything through.
The Packers couldn’t run the ball last week, and they moved away from a traditional ground attack. The same was true for the Buccaneers. In this area of analytics, so many teams are willing to pivot off of a weakness, and I think that’s great. But for these high-end fantasy assets, I can’t have my RB1 being scripted out of a game (Josh Jacobs was banged up, but four carries in an important game is crazy, and nine wasn’t enough for Bucky Irving).
All of these elite backs have a high ceiling. Most have a high floor. There is a special handful that have that profile in terms of usage, and Cook is among them.
Allen soaks up more equity from his backfield than any other quarterback in the league, and that’ll keep Cook out of my top tier at the position for 2026. Still, he’s very much a threat to lead that next group of backs in scoring, and that makes him a rock-solid pick in the first two rounds.
Khalil Shakir, WR
Khalil Shakir posted a 5.6-yard aDOT last season, and it felt perfect. It took him two years to settle into that role, but it looked good on him as a part of this unique Allen attack and allowed him to catch six passes in all three of their playoff games.
Extend that for a full season, and we (or at least I) thought that a 100-catch season was in play for this season.
Nope.
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His aDOT has dropped even further (3.9 yards), and that’s lowered the floor of a profile that already had to deal with a low ceiling. He’s failed to reach double-figure PPR points in four of his past five games and has scored under three PPR points on three occasions this season.
I remain stubborn on the idea that this skill set is the one that works best with Allen’s freestyling ways, but maybe this offense is best served to revolve around Allen with an equal pull from all directions.
I’ll be back on Shakir because of my belief that YAC receivers are set to gain value at a quicker rate than the deep ball threats. He’s not going to cost you much, and cheap exposure to a top-5 offense is always going to grade out as a reasonable investment in my eyes.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
Dalton Kincaid sat last week with a knee injury, a status that was easier to digest with the Patriots/Jets game not in the least bit of doubt. The third-year tight end caught 73 balls as a rookie, but it’s been tough sledding.
He missed four games last season and only scored twice on 75 targets. This season, the touchdowns came early, but he’s now sat out five games with only five top-15 finishes; he’s been a drain on your team more often than not.
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We’ve done this for years with the Bills: Allen doesn’t need help. The idea of this offense sustaining viable pass catchers makes sense in practice, but how many times do we have to be left wanting more before we stop trying?
Ride the Buffalo wave as it comes in season instead of worrying about it on draft night.
