The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Cincinnati Bengals players heading into their matchup with the Green Bay Packers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jake Browning, QB
If Maye was the author of the most impressive performance I’ve seen this season from a QB to finish outside of the top 20 at the position, Jake Browning’s Week 5 was the worst from a top 15 signal caller.
In the fourth quarter of a game that was well in hand, Browning turned 13 dropbacks into 18.6 fantasy points, saving a game where he turned 32 dropbacks into 0.5 fantasy points.
I’m an optimist at heart, and even I struggle to bring myself to believe he can unlock the talent around him because of what he did against Detroit’s janitorial staff late last week.
At best, Browning can sustain one receiver, but he’s not a player you can count on, even in two-QB formats.
Should Joe Flacco replace him this week, that’s a slightly different story.
Chase Brown, RB
Chase Brown can’t win, even when the Bengals are down so bad that all other fantasy options get home.
In a Week 5 dismantling at the hands of the Lions that saw Chase finish as the WR2 for the week and Tee Higgins get into the end zone with a meaningless score, Brown was still unable to post his first top-20 finish of the season.
Man, this has been brutal. He’s averaging 2.5 yards and only has two red zone touches over the past three weeks. His fluidity in the pass game is the lone saving grace, but that means putting your weekly fate in the hands of this QB situation, and that’s just not comfortable.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
I’d love to sell you hope. I was high on Brown entering the season, and skill set-wise, I stand by it, but he’s nothing more than a risky flex these days. In four of five games, the lack of support has resulted in him coming up more than 20% shy of fantasy expectations based on his touch type, a trend that I have a hard time thinking the course corrects.
And now he gets a talented Packers defense off a bye?
I’d rather my week rely on the bizarre usage of the New England running backs or speculate on Hassan Haskins getting the bulk of the work in the first week of Omarion Hampton’s stay on IR.
With the Bengals moving to Flacco, the offensive integrity rises, even without proof of concept. Brown slides into the back-end of my RB2 tier.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR
I’m happy for you, I really am.
Chase posted a big number on Sunday with a 6-110-2 stat line against the Lions, 29 PPR points that have to have you feeling all warm and fuzzy inside.
It couldn’t be less predictive.
The highlight plays were great, and great players make great plays, but relying on a YOLO offensive structure because the game is no longer in doubt is a dangerous way to live. Chase averaged 73.3 air yards per game in September, but with nothing to lose for most of the second half on Sunday, he finished with 185.6.
Over the past three weeks, Browning has supported Chase, who scored 44.3 PPR points, and 49.4% of them (21.9) came in the fourth quarter last week.
Do the math, and that means he was averaging a tick over two PPR points per quarter prior, and for the less mathematically inclined, that’s under 8.5 PPR points per four quarters. If you need a reference point, that’s the same range as the feared duo of Elijah Moore (8.6) and Calvin Ridley (8.4) in Tennessee this season.
I hate to be the wet blanket, but I’m just as worried about Chase’s forecast for the next 2+ months now as I was this time last week. He’s outside of my top 20 this week, behind the upward-trending Stefon Diggs and A.J. Brown, a struggling big name, but one where I’m not nearly as worried about the quality of throw coming his direction.
MORE: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool
This all changes if Joe Flacco (acquired on Tuesday) is labeled as QB1 this week. If that’s the case, what would you label Chase’s target floor to be? He’s averaging nine per game this season, roughly seven if you remove the big game in Week 2 against the Jaguars.
Since 2020, here are the per-game averages (PPR) based on target floors when it comes to passes thrown by Flacco in a game:
-
7+ targets: 15.6 PPG
-
8+ targets: 16.3 PPG
-
9+ targets: 17.0 PPG
-
10+ targets: 19.2 PPG
Tee Higgins, WR
Tee Higgins found the end zone late in the drubbing at the hands of the Lions last week, and that put him into double-digit PPR points for the second time this season.
If a garbage-time touchdown was enough to get you back in on Higgins, I think you’re very much leaning into your priors too much.
He’s a talented player, but this situation is a disaster (all due respect to disasters). Higgins hasn’t reached 35 yards in four of five games and has been held under 0.60 yards per route in two of three games during this losing streak.
If you want to hang your hat on one thing, it’s four straight games with an end-zone target, but you’re putting a lot of weight on him paying off that one look. There is some discussion about the quarterback situation in Cincinnati, and while it can’t theoretically get worse, remember that teams put together depth charts for a reason.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
I’d rather start the floor that comes with Khalil Shakir (at ATL) over Higgins. On the other side of the lineup construction plan, I have Matthew Golladay ranked one spot higher in this same game.
Yeah, it’s that bad, and a meaningless touchdown last week isn’t nearly enough to sell me on anything different. A new QB, however? Then we’d be talking.
Should the Bengals give the keys to the offense to recently acquired Joe Flacco, Higgins would move right back into my WR2 tier, ahead of the A.J. Brown’s of the world and in the same tier as Jaylen Waddle and Courtland Sutton.
Mike Gesicki, TE
We saw this pass game finally get going against the Lions last week, albeit after the game was in hand, and that fueled Mike Gesicki, who saw a season-high in opportunities.
He responded by averaging a whopping three yards per target, and we are now more than 11 months removed from his last touchdown. I was bearish on Gesicki with Joe Burrow under center, and I’m not pivoting any time soon, regardless of who is under center.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 6 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
This offense isn’t built to support a tight end, even if he essentially functions as a receiver in terms of route-to-snap rate.
There are better options on your wire for Week 6 (Mason Tayloe and Chig Okonkwo, as they mean more to their respective offenses), and I’m not optimistic that we see a lineup-lock version of Andrews for the rest of the season.
