By all accounts, 2024 was a fascinating year for the running back position. We didn’t see a single rusher go in the first round of the NFL Draft. Yet, it was the year of the running back renaissance, with several talented veterans earning large contracts and mostly delivering.
Now, an NFL team has paid up for one of the best running back prospects in recent memory. The Las Vegas Raiders drafted Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 overall pick. Here’s why fantasy football managers should also be willing to spend a premium pick on the rookie in 2025 fantasy drafts.
Ashton Jeanty Is Poised For Immediate Success
Let’s start with the player himself. Around the NFL Draft, fellow PFN Fantasy Analyst Kyle Soppe did a deep dive into Jeanty. I would encourage you to read his work, but I will summarize it to the best of my ability.
As Soppe said, “The lack of true competition (Mostert is now 33 years of age and coming off a season that saw him average 3.3 yards per carry for the Dolphins, a team that was motivated to give him work after his career year in 2023) elevates the floor of Jeanty. Penciling him in for the 22 touches per game that Saquon Barkley averaged as a rookie for an equally confused Giants team in 2018 is plenty reasonable, and the raw skill set makes that level of work of interest in the second round.”
He also noted the offensive approach under head coach Antonio Pierce. “Las Vegas’ play-calling made no sense last season (fifth highest first down pace rate in one score games, a stat that you’d expect teams like the Chiefs and Bengals to rank as high as they did, not a team without much upside through the air)Â and, for me, this move telegraphs a change in philosophy.”
Adding to that, the Raiders had a 58% neutral game script pass rate. That was sixth-highest in the league. For a team starting Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder, that’s asinine. I am the biggest proponent of pass-heavy offenses, but you need the personnel to do it.
The Raiders won’t run more than they throw with the massive upgrade provided by Geno Smith, but that rate will come down. We have years of evidence supporting this, most notably Pete Carroll’s history as Seahawks head coach.
With a prime Russell Wilson in 2018, the Seahawks led the league with a 54% neutral game script run rate. In 2019, they were third at 50%. That’s the type of offense Carroll wants to implement.
Jeanty’s primary competition for touches is an over-the-hill Mostert. He walks into the undeniably most barren running back room in the league. In a world where so few backs have 400-touch upside, Jeanty is almost a lock to get there if he stays healthy.
Even if Jeanty were merely an average running back, he would have RB1 upside. But this guy is ridiculously talented. His competition may not have been SEC-level playing at Boise State, but neither was his offensive line. Jeanty was just impossible to tackle.
Missed tackles forced vs yards after contact https://t.co/g0DnMWephv pic.twitter.com/jpWRRHZ1tR
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) March 18, 2025
Jeanty broke the chart.
It’s always risky to call anyone a “can’t miss” prospect. In my football-watching career, I would say the only two 100% “no chance they fail” prospects were Calvin Johnson and Andrew Luck. Jeanty is close to making it three.
ASHTON JEANTY HAS SIX TOUCHDOWNS TODAY!!! pic.twitter.com/oK1XWaK0oX
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) August 31, 2024
Early First-Round Rookie RBs Typically Smash In Fantasy Football
Now, let’s get into the history of rookie running backs and why they’re such a good bet.
In general, fantasy managers should be investing in rookies. If you see a set of rankings with every rookie buried, or you read a tweet or hear on a podcast that you should mostly ignore rookies, I’m telling you to forget that analysis. Rookies in leagues. Every year.
Of course, the rookies that typically win leagues are guys like Brian Thomas Jr. and Puka Nacua — inexpensive draft picks that significantly outperform their ADP. Jeanty’s ADP opened in the second round. I suspect it will finish in the first. At worst, he’ll be consistently going no later than the 1/2 turn. He is worth it.
Since 2011, 17 running backs have been drafted in Round 1 and also played their entire rookie seasons. 11 of them averaged at least 14 fantasy points per game. If we further parse that down to the top half of the first round (picks 1-16), we get nine players. Eight of them averaged at least 14 fantasy points per game.
What if we limit it to the top 12 picks? We get eight names. All of them averaged at least 14 fantasy points per game.
If we go back to 2006, there were nine running backs selected in the top eight picks. Darren McFadden’s 10.1 ppg is the only one not to reach 14 ppg. Six of them averaged at least 16.9 ppg.
First-round rookie running backs are one of the safest bets you can make in fantasy football. The top eight NFL Draft picks are pretty much sure things; draft Ashton Jeanty with confidence.
