Ashton Jeanty stole the statistical show last college football season, racking up over 2,600 yards of offense and scoring 30 times for Boise State. Every opponent on the Broncos’ schedule was overmatched by this unique talent, but the NFL is a different game.
Should fantasy football managers be willing to pay a top shelf premium in the first round or opt for a more proven commodity in redraft leagues?
Fantasy Football Projection: Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders, RB
Last season was the year of the rookie difference maker in the positive direction. If you took a chance on Jayden Daniels, you lapped the field in terms of value gained at the position. A Bo Nix believer? You profited. Paid up for Malik Nabers or were willing to embrace the role of Brian Thomas Jr./Brock Bowers? You likely spent the last hour shining your championship trophy.
It’s not always that easy. The five first round rookies to average 15+ PPR points per game last season matched the total from the three seasons prior (C.J. Stroud, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris, and Jahmyr Gibbs).
If you asked me to bet if this year’s incoming class would live up to the bar set by the 2024 class, I’d be supporting last year’s rookies.
But that’s not the question. You’re asking about a single player and all trends suggest that Jeanty’s first season production could rank among the elite.
No, not the elite among rookies. Among the best in the game and here’s why.
This angle of Ashton Jeanty's TD run is 🔥🔥🔥@BroncoSportsFB pic.twitter.com/cKhBpuhVB1
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) December 7, 2024
Any good projection has to start with some respect for the past and understanding what we can realistically expect, even when being tasked to evaluate a rare prospect.
Can we agree that 15 PPR points per game is effectively the floor here? That was RB17 in 2024 and there aren’t 16 players, let alone running backs, that I’m ranking ahead of Jeanty for this upcoming season
Over the last five seasons, seven times has a rookie RB averaged 15+ PPR points per game (James Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, Elijah Mitchell, Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs, and De’Von Achane) and when those players were trusted with volume, they delivered big numbers. In the 90 games where a RB on that list handled at least 15 carries, they produced 13.2% over expectations, a phenomenal rate.
There were 14 running backs who averaged 15+ rush attempts in 2024 and another five that finished 14.3-14.9 – projecting this involvement for Jeanty is a very reasonable baseline that is far more likely to be light than heavy. We saw those backs average 16.9 PPR PPG and pick up at least 10 yards on 13.9% of their carries. For reference, the top-10 per game fantasy backs last season produced 14.9% over expectations and gained 10+ yards on 11.7% of their carries.
Those are just fancy numbers to tell you that a productive rookie RB, when given volume, is more than capable of producing RB1 numbers and that we have zero volume concerns pertaining to Jeanty. Skeptics will question how smooth the transition will be from Boise State to the pros in terms of physical play and I get that concern in principal, but numerically, it doesn’t hold much weight.
In fact, the top-10 RBs from a season ago combined to average 5.9% more yards per carry after contact during their respective rookie seasons than their strong 2024 showing. Not every running back makes the jump seamlessly, but the ones who succeed at a high level typically do and those are the expectations in play for Jeanty.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s focus on his landing spot.
The Las Vegas Raiders’ offensive line graded out 23rd for us last season, earning a D+ grade (69.4). They revamped their offense this season, moving from Gardner Minshew and Alexander Mattison to Geno Smith and, prior to this pick, Raheem Mostert. I’m not sure what the direction of this franchise is, but it’s clear that they are open to the idea of change and running their offense through Jeanty now seems like the best bet.
The lack of true competition (Mostert is now 33 years of age and coming off of a season that saw him average 3.3 yards per carry for the Dolphins, a team that was motivated to give him work after his career year in 2023) elevates the floor of Jeanty. Penciling him in for the 22 touches per game that Saquon Barkley averaged as a rookie for an equally confused Giants team in 2018 is plenty reasonable and the raw skill set makes that level of work of interest in the second round.
Over the past three seasons, 44 quarterbacks have thrown at least 500 passes – Smith ranks third in completion percentage (68.5%) and 37th in average depth of throw (7.2, 6.5% below NFL average). Jeanty’s usage in the pass game was exceptional in 2023 (43 catches for 569 yards and five scores) – he can perform in that area, he simply wasn’t asked to as much in 2024 because he was scoring on 7.8% of his carries. Why introduce risk to your offense when you can simply hand the ball off to a highlight machine?
Las Vegas’ play-calling made no sense last season (fifth highest first down pace rate in one score games, a stat that you’d expect teams like the Chiefs and Bengals to rank as high as they did, not a team without much upside through the air) and, for me, this move telegraphs a change in philosophy.
Would it surprise you to see this offense, with a head coach who turns 74 in the middle of September, looks to limit risk? With no context, I’d take that bet, but with this draft capital now invested in what might be a generation running back, I feel really good about projecting a high volume role.
Fantasy Football Ranking: Ashton Jeanty’s Overall Grade
As for his spot in the hierarchy of the top-20 overall players, the case for taking him ahead of any receiver outside of your top tier is rather straight forward. The top of my receiver board is headed by a five player tier (Ja’Marr Chase, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua, and Amon-Ra St, Brown) and once those five are gone, I’m open to the idea of drafting Jeanty ahead of the remaining stars at that position (Brian Thomas Jr. Malik Nabers, Tee Higgins, etc.).
Why?
It’s a numbers game. We believe Jeanty is going to be elite and the track record of rookie running backs that live up to that expectation is strong.
Those are some impressive rates and they become even more appealing when you look at the same chart, but switch the data from top rookie RBs to top overall receivers a year ago.
Anything stand out? For me, it’s the elevated floor at the running back position. “You can’t win a draft, but you certainly can lose it” is an early round cliche, but it’s hung around for years because it’s largely accurate. In total, here is the numerical breakdown of the two visuals above.
So yea, you could easily justify spending your second pick on Jeanty as we sit here today, without a single shirtless practice picture or a bonkers lifting routine.
April Projection (16 games): 281 carries, 1,334 rushing yards, 51 catches, 372 receiving yards, and 13 touchdowns