As the 2025 season approaches, Ashton Jeanty’s fantasy football value is skyrocketing. The Las Vegas Raiders’ rookie running back, drafted sixth overall out of Boise State, has quickly emerged as one of the most sought-after players in early fantasy trades and rankings, generating massive buzz among fantasy managers.
What’s fueling all the fantasy hype around Jeanty’s rookie season? We broke it down to see why managers are so excited about the Raiders’ new running back.
The Jeanty Trade Market Tells The Story
When examining PFSN Trade Analyzer data, Jeanty emerges as the clear frontrunner in terms of fantasy manager optimism. Combining both trade rate and the percentage of deals involving his acquisition, no player generates more bullish sentiment than the Raiders’ new workhorse back. This enthusiasm stems from a perfect storm of opportunity, talent, and historical precedent that positions Jeanty for immediate fantasy relevance.
By drafting Jeanty, the Raiders tackled their biggest offensive weakness head-on. In 2024, Las Vegas ranked last in rushing yards (1,357), yards per carry (3.6), and rushing first downs (78). Jeanty’s arrival gives the team a much-needed spark and immediately upgrades a ground game that was in dire need of a proper foundation.
Historical Context Supports Elite Expectations
The rookie running back landscape has been remarkably productive in recent years, with six of the past eight seasons featuring a rookie averaging north of 17 PPR fantasy points per game. To put this in perspective, only 10 running backs achieved that threshold in 2024, making it an elite tier of production. Jeanty’s combination of draft capital and opportunity suggests he’s positioned to join this exclusive group.
The moment Ashton Jeanty became a Raider 📞 pic.twitter.com/WaVrXgjX23
— NFL (@NFL) April 25, 2025
Looking at recent top-10 running back selections provides additional confidence. Over the past decade, players like Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, and Bijan Robinson all finished at or near the top 10 fantasy running backs as rookies. Elliott and Barkley even claimed top three overall finishes, demonstrating the ceiling for elite prospects.
Jeanty’s college production supports these lofty expectations. The Heisman Trophy runner-up rushed for 2,601 yards on 374 carries in 2024, leading the nation in both categories while averaging an impressive 7.0 yards per carry. His 29 rushing touchdowns ranked second nationally, showcasing the red zone prowess that translates directly to fantasy scoring.
The Geno Smith Connection
One underappreciated aspect of Jeanty’s fantasy appeal lies in quarterback Geno Smith’s historical usage patterns with running backs. Smith’s target rate to running backs has steadily increased over the past four seasons: 13.7%, 14.7%, 15.2%, and 18.5% in 2024. This upward trajectory suggests Smith has grown more comfortable utilizing his backfield in the passing game, which bodes well for Jeanty’s PPR upside.
Current projections reflect this optimism, with Jeanty expected to rush for 1,050.5 yards and 7.5 touchdowns in his rookie campaign. However, these numbers might be conservative given his projected workload and the Raiders’ commitment to establishing a ground game under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.
Kelly’s NFL history shows a consistent emphasis on rushing attempts, with his offenses never ranking lower than 11th in rushing attempts during his tenure. Additionally, Kelly’s backfields have typically commanded significant target shares, ranging from 16.6% to 28.7% during his four years as an NFL offensive coordinator.
The Path to RB1 Status
Jeanty’s fantasy ceiling extends beyond simple volume projections. His college tape reveals a tackle-breaking specialist who ranked first and third in yards after contact per attempt across his final two collegiate seasons. This skill set translates directly to fantasy production, as broken tackles often lead to explosive plays and additional scoring opportunities.
ASHTON JEANTY 61-YARD HOUSE CALL 🏠 @BroncoSportsFB pic.twitter.com/paiTgJl7I8
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) November 24, 2024
The Raiders’ offensive improvements also support Jeanty’s outlook. Beyond adding the dynamic rookie, Las Vegas upgraded at quarterback with Smith and bolstered their offensive line through the draft. These moves create a more favorable environment for sustained success in the rushing game.
Perhaps most importantly, Jeanty enters the backfield with minimal competition. Veterans Raheem Mostert, Sincere McCormick, and Zamir White represent depth options rather than threats to significant touches. This clear path to workhorse status, combined with his sixth-overall draft capital, virtually guarantees substantial opportunity from Week 1.
Fantasy managers drafting Jeanty in the early rounds aren’t just betting on talent; they’re investing in a convergence of factors that historically produce elite rookie seasons. With trade data showing unprecedented optimism and historical precedent supporting immediate impact, Jeanty represents one of 2025’s most compelling fantasy investments.
