The Las Vegas Raiders came into the 2025 offseason with a lot of team needs. Yet, they still spent the No. 6 overall pick on a running back. Ashton Jeanty is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley and potentially a generational talent. Already saddled with the highest of expectations, is the rookie worth his high price tag in fantasy football drafts.
Should You Draft Ashton Jeanty in Fantasy?
If there is one thing you can be sure of when it comes to Jeanty, there will be someone who says to you, “I can’t take a rookie in the first round.” Now, by no means is Jeanty a lock to live up to average draft position (ADP) expectation. We are, in fact, asking a lot of him by placing a first-round price tag on him. But if you can’t do better than, “He’s a rookie,” then your argument holds no water.
The Raiders certainly aren’t the best offensive environment. They do not project to be a great team, and, ideally, we want our fantasy players to play on good offenses.
But volume is king in fantasy football, and especially at the running back position. Jeanty could not possibly have walked into a more barren running back room. His primary competition for touches is 33-year-old Raheem Mostert. Behind him, the Raiders have Zamir White and Sincere McCormick. In an era where almost every team uses multiple backs, the Raiders will lean heavily on Jeanty.
There is an incoming change in the Raiders’ offensive approach. Under former head coach Antonio Pierce, they wanted to be a run-first team. Unfortunately, their lack of talent prevented this from being the case. As a result, they wound up throwing the ball 58% of the time in neutral game script, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
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It is interesting that in Carroll’s final two years in Seattle, the Seahawks actually were near the top of the league in neutral game script pass rate. However, that was more by force than by choice. If we go back to prime Russell Wilson years like 2018 and 2019, the Seahawks were last (46%) and third-to-last (50%) in neutral game script pass rate.
Perhaps the more important analysis is looking at the team from 2010-2015. Those were Carroll’s first six seasons with the Seahawks. Most relevant is the fact that this was the Marshawn Lynch era.
During this timeframe, the Seahawks had a 48% neutral game script run rate, the second highest in the league. The clear takeaway is that if you give Carroll a workhorse running back, he wants to use him. He has that in Jeanty.
Why not. Here is 64 minutes and 31 seconds of Ashton Jeanty running the football. pic.twitter.com/0W2Fr34AiU
— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) April 15, 2025
First-round running backs have a very strong track record of success. That’s even more so when we talk about backs selected inside the top eight. The simple fact is that running backs do not go this early in the NFL Draft unless they are pretty much a sure thing.
If we go all the way back to 2006, there were nine running backs selected in the Top 8. Darren McFadden’s 10.1 Â fantasy points per game is the only one not to reach 14 points per game (PPG). Six of them averaged at least 16.9 PPG.
Jeanty’s ADP is RB6, and he typically goes at the 1/2 turn. I have him ranked as my RB6 (although I’ve flipped him with Christian McCaffrey several times and probably will do it several more) and would confidently select him in that spot.
The only hesitation would be, depending on league specifics, the desire to go with two elite wide receivers instead. But that has nothing to do with Jeanty and everything to do with team structure and draft philosophy. You should have zero concerns about whether Jeanty is capable of performing at the level expected of a first-round running back.
Dan Fornek’s Ashton Jeanty Fantasy Projection
Ashton Jeanty is one of the most talented running backs to come out of college football in years. Over his last two seasons at Boise State, Jeanty totaled 594 carries for 3,948 yards (6.6 yards per attempt) and 43 rushing touchdowns. He also added 66 receptions for 707 yards and six receiving scores. Jeanty proved to be one of the most dynamic and elusive rushers in college football. He had more yards after contact (1,695) than the next leading rusher had total yards in 2024. He also led all running backs (minimum 60 attempts) in 10+ yard rushes (55) and 15+ yard rushes (33).
Jeanty’s status as a rookie to target in fantasy took a major positive step when he was selected sixth overall by the Las Vegas Raiders in the 2025 NFL Draft. The rookie now enters an upgraded backfield next to Geno Smith with minimal competition for touches (Raheem Mostert, Sincere McCormick, Zamir White, and Dylan Laube). The Raiders also upgraded their coaching staff with head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.
The rookie running back is poised to be the focal point of an offense that should be better in 2025. Not only that, he has the pass-catching ability that we covet in early-round running backs. Jeanty should be the most recent top-10 running back selection in the NFL Draft who can finish as an RB1 in fantasy given his offensive environment and skill set.
