On 53 fewer targets, Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is tied with Tyreek Hill for the most receptions (430) since he entered the league in 2021, establishing himself as one of the most productive receivers in the game.
But what’s the ceiling?
Ja’Marr Chase is fresh off of earning a triple crown in a similar situation (a stable pocket passing QB with a strong Robin receiver next to him and a productive running game in support of the aerial assault) – could St. Brown be the skeleton key that unlocks fantasy football championships in 2025?
Should You Draft Amon-Ra St. Brown in Fantasy?
When naming our game’s most consistently impactful fantasy assets, it doesn’t take long to name St. Brown. He’s caught at least 90 balls in all four of his NFL seasons, has only two missed games on his resume, and has seen his touchdown total tick upwards with each passing year.
He doesn’t turn 26 years old until October and is coming off a season that included nine top-15 finishes and a pair of weeks in which he was the highest-scoring receiver in the sport.
.@AllenRobinson has Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams as his number one best wide receiver duo in the NFL next season 👀 pic.twitter.com/po8RpOi6cx
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) July 9, 2025
The word “elite” gets thrown around rather carelessly in analysis these days, but it’s fitting here.
His production relative to expectation continues to move in the right direction (+3.5% in 2022, +16.5% in 2023, and +24.1% in 2024), and while a little additional risk gets introduced into his profile due to the departure of Ben Johnson, what’s the absolute worst case scenario given the connection he has shown with Jared Goff and his ability to win in a hurry (career average depth of target: 7.5 yards)?
Drafting St. Brown in the first round does not ensure you glory come winter. Any championship run requires plenty of situational luck on top of a strong roster, but if we are recapping the season in January and St. Brown is the reason your team didn’t have success, I’d be awfully surprised.
Heck, that would shock me more than if he were the next receiver to make a serious run at Antonio Brown’s NFL record of consecutive contests with at least five catches and 50 receiving yards (35 straight).
Here’s a final fun way to display the greatness of St. Brown.
- WR14 Terry McLaurin: 15.75 PPR points per game
- WR15 Modified St. Brown: 15.41 PPR PPG
- WR16 DeVonta Smith: 15.34 PPR PPG
- WR17 Ladd McConkey: 15.06 PPR PPG
- WR18 Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 14.88
Not bad company, right? Without even knowing what “Modified St. Brown” means, we can agree that being alongside McLaurin during a breakout year and McConkey during a historic rookie run is a strong position to hold.
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Last season, 60 receivers averaged over 25 routes per game. It’s a pretty low bar to clear and one that most, if not all, regular fantasy assets at the position in your league will achieve in 2025. The “Modified St. Brown” point total from above is if you averaged out his worst 17 games with over 25 routes run, since the start of 2023.
If you want St. Brown, go get him. “Reaching” for Detroit’s WR1 is impossible, as he won’t be on the board when your second pick comes around.
Dan Fornek’s Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Projection
Amon-Ra St. Brown remained one of the most productive receivers out of the slot in 2024. The veteran caught 115 targets for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2024, finishing as the WR5 in PPR points per game (18.6). St. Brown now has three straight top 12 wide receiver finishes in PPR scoring, including two consecutive years in the top five.
During his time with Ben Johnson, St. Brown has averaged 150.3 targets, 113.3 receptions, 1,313 receiving yards, and 9.3 touchdowns per season. His 27.3% target share was ninth among wide receivers in 2024, but was also the lowest number he posted since his rookie season. The Lions offense started to evolve in 2024, thanks to Jameson Williams’s role expanding (91 targets).
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The Lions’ offense could look different in 2025 now that Ben Johnson has left to become head coach. New offensive coordinator John Morton has been raving about Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs’s explosiveness in the passing game. Additionally, St. Brown spent his offseason recovering from surgery to clean up his knee.
St. Brown has been a fantasy asset the last three seasons thanks to his high-volume role in Detroit’s pass-heavy attack. However, 2025 feels like the first time there are legitimate barriers to him getting that workload. St. Brown is still a safe fantasy pick, especially given his role in the red zone (32 targets in 2024, second most among wide receivers), but the ceiling might start lowering next season.
