Aaron Jones Sr. has cleared 1,100 scrimmage yards in each of his past five healthy seasons (minimum 12 games played), but he’s now on the wrong side of 30 years old and experiencing an offense that is naturally going to look different with Sam Darnold taking his talents to Seattle.
Is the fantasy football floor high enough to justify penciling Jones into your weekly lineup, or is he a player to cross off of your cheat sheets this summer?
Should You Draft Aaron Jones in Fantasy?
Jones is an interesting option. His advanced resume doesn’t look great, but he’s stayed on the field for a full season in two of the past three years (one such season prior in his career) and continues to be labeled as a bellcow.
- Aaron Jones
- Christian McCaffrey
That’s your entire list of players with at least 1,000 rushing yards and 50 catches in two of the past three seasons. That’s not too shabby, and we saw some ceiling in this profile as a featured part of this Kevin O’Connell system — Jones was a top-16 RB in three of four weeks to open 2024 and finished the campaign with five RB1 finishes.
The story has been great, but we as 2025 managers aren’t interested in the “story”. “Stories” take place in the past, and we are in the business of forecasting the future. From Weeks 8-13 last season, we saw Jones fade a bit (average weekly finish: RB24), and that’s about what I’m expecting this season, understanding that the peak of his powers is more likely to come in September than December.
Fueling that belief is the early (Week 6) bye — is this the type of player you want to be betting on while playing for a 10th consecutive week?
#Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell on his backfield:
“Aaron Jones is at his best when we can keep him fresh, we can keep him truly as that 1a, because we’ve got the 1b with him, and that was Jordan Mason.” pic.twitter.com/5nGWoeX3vb
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) April 1, 2025
It’s not for me. Our internal Elusive Rating has Jones trending in the wrong direction for consecutive seasons (9.8% of his carries gained 10+ yards a season ago, down from his 12% career number), and there simply isn’t much upside to chase.
He ripped off a 34-yard gain against the Lions in Week 7, and that was fun, but he had just one game with a 20+ yard run after that point, with some real duds sprinkled in there (Week 11 at Tennessee: 15 carries with his longest carry going for 15 feet).
His role in the passing game stabilized his fantasy value a season ago, but color me pessimistic about a repeat performance in 2025. Not only is there a quarterback change that this offense has to navigate, but there’s natural regression to pencil in. In 2024, Jones caught 82.3% of his targets (51-of-62).
Still, considering that he caught 73.3% of his looks in 2019-20 with Aaron Rodgers playing at an elite level, we have to draw back some, if not a lot, of efficiency as a pass catcher in addition to his declining abilities on the ground.
He could, of course, save you with a spike touchdown season. This offense projects as a top-10 unit, and Jones does have a 19-touchdown season on his resume, but that was a long time ago (2019). Half of his career rushing scores came in those mentioned above 2019-20 stretch (50% of rushing TDs in 26.3% of his career games).
Remove that peak, and he’s averaging a mere 5.1 scores on the ground per 17 games, a rate that doesn’t have the potential to save you from an otherwise inefficient campaign.
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Jordan Mason was brought in this offseason, and I consider him a threat to subtract from his bottom line more than just a backup in case of an emergency. The incoming rookie running crop of running backs is strong, and I’d prefer almost any of them with a reasonable shot at playing time over Jones this year.
Jones, for me, is a volume/floor play only this season — picking him makes some sense if you are swallowing some risk with your first two running backs.
Outside of that, I’m more tempted by RBs who could improve as the regular season wears on than one who I believe will see his production fade as the days go by.
Cameron Sheath’s Aaron Jones Fantasy Projection
There appears to be some expectation of injury for RB Aaron Jones Sr. this offseason, given his RB25 ADP is 10 spots lower than his 2024 finish. However, that may be a little unfair. The Vikings star missed six games in 2023, but bookended that season with 17 outings in both 2022 and 2024.
Rather than slowing down, Jones actually handled the biggest rushing workload of his eight-year career last season (255 attempts). That naturally coincided with a career-low rushing efficiency (4.46 yards per carry), but his 1,138 rushing yards were still his most ever in a season. The former Packer will look to improve on his six total touchdowns last season, though he hasn’t scored double-digit touchdowns since 2021 and now has more competition.
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There is a fear that Jones could lose work to backup Jordan Mason, whom the Vikings traded for in March. Mason stepped up in Christian McCaffrey’s absence last year and put up massive numbers on the ground for the 49ers.
Every team needs a backup, but Mason’s two-year, $10.5 million contract suggests the Vikings at least intend to get a good look at their new man. However, Jones played over 70% of the snaps on just six occasions in 2024, so he shouldn’t be too affected by Mason’s arrival.
Jones is another year older, but was eighth among running backs in targets last year and is still the lead back on a good offense with a top play-caller. Despite the age and competition concerns, RB25 is likely too cautious. Jones should still be able to produce middling to low-end RB2 value this season.
