The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key San Francisco 49ers players heading into their matchup with the Chicago Bears to help you craft a winning lineup.
Brock Purdy, QB
Here he comes.
On a per-pass basis, Brock Purdy is one of the most efficient we’ve ever seen, something he’s proven in his past two games (48-of-64 for 590 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception).
Kyle Shanahan scripted up a gem of a plan, and Purdy was essentially flawless in his execution with more touchdown passes (three) than incompletions (two) on the first three possessions.
The Bears are the fifth-worst defense in terms of yards per play, and with Chicago covering up that flaw with a developing offense, this could be a fun game that leaves fantasy points in the stockings of all involved.
I prefer the floor of Purdy over the ceiling of Caleb Williams in this matchup, but I have both ranked as QB1s and would be comfortable with them deciding my fate.
Christian McCaffrey, RB
We saw Christian McCaffrey post a +90% gain rate on the ground against the Colts on Monday night, just his third such performance in what has been a tough year on the ground.
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But in those instances where he is effective in the running game, it’s over. He had a pair of easy red zone touchdowns by way of getting a linebacker in space and running a crisp route that the defender simply had zero shot at stopping.
He’s up to 16 touchdowns, 92 catches, and 1,039 rushing yards. At this point, nothing he does is all that surprising. He’s stayed on the field and, in doing so, he’s one of the best fantasy options of all time.
It really is that simple.
Jauan Jennings, WR
Jauan Jenngins has scored in four straight games and seven times in his past seven, but together a run of excellence that has rewarded you handsomely for what you invested.
With a target share under 18.5% in consecutive games, you could poke a hole in his target-earning abilities, but given the efficient nature of the Brock Purdy/Kyle Shanahan tandem, I’m less inclined to sweat it.
The trust factor simply cannot be overstated in this instance. Jennings has caught seven of eight third-down targets over his past three games and has scored on three of those receptions.
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Due to the usage that George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey absorb, there’s only so much of a ceiling to chase, but the floor has been solid all season long, and that’s enough to work him into your starting lineup with a good level of confidence.
For what it’s worth, my opinion of Jennings isn’t tied to the status of Ricky Pearsall (knee/ankle).
Ricky Pearsall, WR
After missing six weeks with a knee injury, Ricky Pearsall had three slow efforts before looking like the fantasy viable version of himself that we saw in September in Week 15 against the Titans (six catches on seven targets for 96 yards).
His speed is an asset in an offense that requires so much attention in the horizontal pass game, courtesy of Christian McCaffrey, but he needs to be entirely correct to pay off that upside.
Kyle Shanahan reported early last week that there was “a concern” surrounding Pearsall’s knee/ankle ailments after the big performance and that cost him Week 16. Does he return for Sunday Night Football?
Does it matter?
The Chicago defense isn’t one I fear, and playing this game at home is helpful, but I’d really have to be backed into a corner to follow this injury situation heading into the weekend.
If forced to guess, I’d say he struggles to get on the field, but with him being held under 15 yards in each of the three games before the strong showing opposite a vulnerable Tennessee defense, there’s a lot of risk to swallow in this profile.
George Kittle, TE
George Kittle racked up a season high 111 air yards on Monday night in Indy (previous season high: 75) and has scored in consecutive games.
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The upside is evident in how they use him, and his efficiency supports the floor. Kittle has caught at least 80% of his targets in eight of 10 games this season (19 catches on 22 targets over the past three games) and is averaging 1.2 red zone touches per game.
The receivers in San Francisco can have their moments, but this passing game is built to support Kittle and Christian McCaffrey: play him and enjoy your weekly edge over the teams that don’t have Trey McBride.
