The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key San Francisco 49ers players heading into their matchup with the Indianapolis Colts to help you craft a winning lineup.
Brock Purdy, QB
Brock Purdy handled his business against the undermanned Titans (23-of-30 for 295 yards and three touchdowns), funneling three-quarters of his looks to three players, routinely taking advantage of mismatches.
He did everything he was asked to and even added 44 rushing yards for good measure (43 rush yards in his first five starts this season). Purdy has completed over 70% of his passes in three of his past four games, and this was the second time he proved capable of taking advantage of a great matchup.
This Colts defense isn’t one to fear, and with his primary playmakers healthy, Purdy is to be viewed as a high-floor play that can help a strong team that just lost Patrick Mahomes. Or maybe on a competitive team that isn’t loving the idea of playing Lamar Jackson against the Patriots.
Asking him to break the slate with a vast game isn’t wise, but 18-22 fantasy points on Monday night with your matchup in the balance can hold value.
Christian McCaffrey, RB
I don’t want to equate Christian McCaffrey to your faithful car that you cross your fingers with every time you start it, but he’s at 345 touches this season and was a late add to the injury report with a back injury in Week 15.
He played through it and logged another 23 touches (three straight games with 20+ carries), but consecutive games without a 15-yard touch? Five straight without a touch, gaining more than 20 yards?
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CMC is masking limited efficiency with elite versatility (over 15 PPR points in 13 of 14 games, with the lone exception coming in Houston, a matchup that bears little resemblance to this one) and volume. At this point, we are comfortable in assuming that he is healthy enough to sustain that usage, and that’s right.
We’ve yet to see San Francisco relent on his touches in the slightest, and with them in the middle of a playoff seeding battle, I wouldn’t expect that to change. Even with me weighing the risk factor that comes with him potentially wearing down, McCaffrey is my top-ranked RB1 for this week, sitting atop a tier of five that stand out above the rest.
Jauan Jennings, WR
The Jauan Jennings profile isn’t perfect, but it’s good enough.
He has six touchdowns over his past six games, and with Ricky Pearsall (knee) back on the injury bus, we are looking at a solid role in a consistent offense.
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There’s naturally some risk involved. Jennings is a good player who shares an offense with two great options (George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey). Brock Purdy is as efficient as they come, and betting on a Kyle Shanahan offense has proven profitable over the course of time.
Jennings has cleared a 24% target share just three times this season. That would worry me in most systems, but this isn’t “most systems”.
Ricky Pearsall, WR
You can’t help but feel for this kid.
I thought Ricky Pearsall looked great last week. It was against the Titans, I get it, but six catches for 96 yards on just 24 routes is impressive. There was also a DPI flag he created in the end zone, putting this offense in a position to score, even if it didn’t impact his box score.
I have my questions (one red zone touch this season and a 9.5% target rate in those spots), but the raw skills are a nice fit for this creative offense, led by an efficient signal-caller.
In all, I like this profile when he’s active.
That last part, however, is the problem and seems to be an issue again, as Kyle Shanahan pivoted from “I’d expect him to be alright” to “there is concern” within a 24-hour window when talking to the media about Pearsall’s knee/ankle ailments.
At this point, I can’t take a risk like this. I’m not counting on him being active, but even if he is, the inability to get through 60 minutes without issue isn’t something I want to deal with at this point in the fantasy playoffs.
George Kittle, TE
You could easily argue that Trey McBride is in his own tier at the top of the tight end position and that George Kittle, as the next man in line, is also in his own tier.
I suppose that hinges on what you think of this Kyle Pitts sprint to the finish, but either way, Kittle has reached double-digit PPR points in five straight, a stretch that has been highlighted by him catching 12 of 14 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown over the past two games.
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Ricky Pearsall looked good this past week prior to getting hurt again, and Jauan Jennings can win down the field, so I was encouraged by Kyle Shanahan carving out a niche role for his difference-making TE. In the win over the Titans, Kittle posted his lowest aDOT of the season (2.9 yards), a bet on Brock Purdy, one of the most efficient QBs in the game, who stayed on time with this offense.
That’s a bet I’m comfortable making, and if there is one tight end that is going to give you a chance at treading water should you be facing a McBride team, it’s Kittle, and it’s not a conversation.
