The first game of Week 7 is behind us, and that means we have an opportunity to fire up the fantasy football trade analyzer to look back at some values from last night. Additionally, we will look at some players whose values might change in the coming weekend that fantasy managers could look to trade for.
Let’s examine the trade value of the likes of Eno Benjamin, Zach Ertz, Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones, and AJ Dillon.
Week 7 Trade Analyzer | Values For Eno Benjamin and Zach Ertz After TNF
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Coming out of that game in the national spotlight, many player values have seen dramatic shifts. However, the question for fantasy managers is how they should react to what we saw Thursday. Let’s take a look at two players with contrasting values after this week’s game.
Eno Benjamin, RB | ARI
There are several conflicting elements that go into Benjamin’s value right now. On one hand, he’s coming off a game in which he had 92 yards and a touchdown on 12 rushing attempts. He added another 21 receiving yards on four receptions from five targets. When fantasy managers added Benjamin following the injury to James Conner, this is exactly what they were looking for.
However, the counterpoints are two-fold. On one hand, Benjamin had just 12 of the 21 rushing attempts for RBs in this game. Keaontay Ingram had the other nine and scored the first of the two rushing touchdowns. Additionally, with Conner having been a game-time decision this week, he’s expected to be back next week. Therefore, Benjamin could see his role reduced to that of a backup in Week 8.
Yet, we’ve seen Benjamin be more efficient this year than Conner. Benjamin is averaging 4.6 yards per rushing attempt and 7.7 yards per reception. Meanwhile, Conner is averaging 3.7 yards per rush and 7.4 yards per reception. Benjamin also has a better efficiency rate, which looks at rushing yards gained compared to total yards covered, than Conner (3.61 vs. 4.07).
Additionally, per Next Gen Stats, Benjamin is averaging 0.35 rushing yards over expected per rush. Meanwhile, Conner has the fifth-worst number at -0.53 rushing yards over expected per rush. Could we see Benjamin retain a bigger role after Conner’s return than he had before he left?
That is why we are at an intriguing crossroads with Benjamin. Coming off a game where he had 113 total yards and a touchdown, giving him 17.3 fantasy points, you can make the case that Benjamin is both a sell-high and a buy-low.
Some fantasy managers will look to use this performance as a way to sell Benjamin in the coming days before Conner’s return. However, you could make the case he is somewhat of a buy low, even after his value has increased following this performance. If Benjamin’s fantasy manager is concerned about his drop in value following Conner’s return, then you could make a move on him. The perfect time for that will be late next week if Conner is back at practice.
If you do move to acquire Benjamin, prepare to be patient. Conner could the immediate shot as the lead back upon his return. However, it’s worth remembering that Conner took the starting role last year after Chase Edmonds got hurt. Thus, we’ve seen the Cardinals’ willingness to make a switch when the backup performs well. We could yet see that again.
Zach Ertz, TE | ARI
Hopefully, there’s no panic over Ertz this week because this is by far his worst performance of the season. Prior to his 4.1 fantasy point performance in non-PPR scoring in this game, his lowest was 4.5 fantasy points back in Week 3. In full PPR, he had just 6.1 fantasy points this week, compared to a previous low of 9.4 fantasy points back in Week 1.
The only reason there is any chance that this performance might cause an issue for fantasy managers is that it coincided with the return of DeAndre Hopkins. Kyler Murray targeted Hopkins a massive 14 times in his first game back from suspension. This is likely to be much like what we saw with Davante Adams and A.J. Brown when they were hyper-targeted in their first games of the season.
MORE: Fantasy TE Streamers and Rankings Week 7
Additionally, this game against the Saints was a tough matchup. New Orleans ranked second in the league in average fantasy points allowed to the position coming into the week (4.62). We’ve seen just one game this year where a team’s tight ends combined to score more than five fantasy points against them. Therefore, it’s somewhat unsurprising that he struggled this week, especially when combined with the hyper-targeting of Hopkins.
Ertz remains a solid weekly starting TE option. If his current fantasy manager is concerned about him, then you should enquire as to his price. Ertz has averaged over seven targets per game in his 18 games in Arizona and should continue to see a considerable workload.
Players To Buy Low Ahead of Week 7
Ezekiel Elliott, RB | DAL
We are about to see the Dallas Cowboys offense look very different with the return of Dak Prescott. While that might mean we see slightly less usage for the running game, it should help its efficiency. The threat of Prescott under center should spread out defenses more and give the Cowboys’ backs friendlier opportunities.
Additionally, this week, Dallas’ matchup is extremely juicy. The Detroit Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the RB position per game this season in half-PPR scoring (26.28). In fact, they have yet to allow fewer than 20 fantasy points to the position in any of the games played so far. Detroit is the only team to hold that dubious accolade, and it should be good for Elliott.
While it might seem weird to say Elliott is a buy-low coming off his best game of the year, his fantasy managers are likely dubious. Through six weeks, Elliott is the RB37 in points per game. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in just two games and followed up the last one with a single-digit performance.
Nevertheless, we could see Elliott have his second-straight good game this week. That could significantly change the way his fantasy managers view him and increase his price in a trade. The window to buy low has already reduced a little, but it could clamp shut completely this week.
Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, RB | GB
It’s been a really tough time for both Dillon and Jones through the first six weeks. With the Packers’ offense spluttering, neither has been able to see consistent work. However, with the passing game struggling, Green Bay needs to get serious about investing in their best offensive-skill-position assets.
Jones leads the league in the percentage of rushing yards over expectation at 54.5%. He also averages an impressive 1.31 yards over expectation per rush attempt. Yet, the strange element of Jones’ usage has been the lack of targets.
MORE: Week 7 Fantasy RB Start/Sit Recommendations
Jones is actually seeing a similar number of rushing yards to last year and being more efficient with them. But the drop below four targets per game is inexcusable with the way the Packers’ passing game has been performing. Green Bay must start involving Jones more in the passing game, and the injury to Randall Cobb may present exactly that opportunity.
Dillon is not having the same success on the ground, but the matchup this week gives some cause for optimism. The Commanders’ run defense has been extremely tough to predict. However, they have given up over 25 fantasy points to opposing run games on three occasions this year. The Packers’ offense needs to get into a groove, and hammering the run game could be exactly the medicine they need.