With five weeks now gone in the 2020 fantasy football season, the trade deadline is creeping closer and closer, limiting your opportunities to make big changes to your roster. While the waiver wire is a good place to fine-tune your roster around your weekly needs, identifying trade targets is the best way to radically alter your fantasy team. The key to improving your roster is to identify which players you can buy low and sell high on so you can maximize their value. Here are eight fantasy trade targets you can look to either buy low or sell high on entering Week 6.
Who are some fantasy football buy-low Week 6 trade targets?
QB: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Week 5 was the toughest Burrow has faced in the NFL. After four solid performances to start his career, the outing against the Ravens was the first dud as he completed just 19 of 30 passes for 183 yards and an interception. Burrow had been the talk of the NFL world, but with his rough Week 5 performance, an opportunity to acquire him may have arisen.
With the Bengals run game struggling in all but one matchup this year, Burrow has been asked to throw the ball 207 times already. That puts him on pace to throw the ball over 600 times this year, which offers great volume opportunity. As Burrow and the Bengals’ skill position players continue to develop chemistry, look for his efficiency to improve going forward.
One thing to note here is that Burrow has been hit a lot in the first five weeks. Therefore, to buy low on him entering Week 6 is a gamble, and as soon as his value is to a point where he feels like a sell high, you should look to flip him before the seemingly inevitable injury happens.
RB: Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals
It has been a rough start for Kenyan Drake and anyone who drafted him in 2020. He currently sits as the RB28 in PPR formats and has a Fantasy Points Differential of -19%.
The biggest negative for Drake’s value is the lack of targets, with just six through the first weeks. However, he has logged double-digit carries in all five games and more than 15 in four of the five games. We have seen Drake begin seasons slowly before things have clicked down the stretch. The lack of targets is certainly a concern but averaging 17 carries per game is solid volume.
The other positive is that Drake is seeing over 60% of his teams carries in the red zone and inside the 10. He has also seen over 55% of the carries inside the five-yard line and, therefore, should be a good bet to improve on the 0.4 touchdowns per game rate that he currently owns. The high volume in the run game makes Drake a high floor fantasy trade target entering Week 6.
WR: Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
It has been a slow start for Deebo Samuel through his first two weeks back. 11.7 fantasy points is not a good return, but there is some reason for optimism. Samuel saw eight targets in Week 5, suggesting he is a key part of the 49ers’ plans offensively. Hopefully, if Jimmy Garoppolo can get healthy, this offense can increase its efficiency.
Additionally, with the 49ers’ defense struggling, the offense will have to be far more open over the coming weeks to compete. Samuel presents an admirable trade target entering Week 6, because with the Rams and Patriots coming up in the next two weeks of the schedule, fantasy GMs may be concerned about the short term. However, if we look further into the future, Samuel has matchups he can exploit against the Seahawks, Packers, and Saints in Weeks 8 through 10.
TE: Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns
It has been a mixed start to the 2020 season for Austin Hooper. After his early start validated dynasty players’ opinions that he was a player to sell high on, his recent performances suggest he may now be a player to buy low on entering Week 6. In those first three weeks, Hooper saw just 10 targets and registered just 13.2 fantasy points. However, the last two weeks have seen him log 17 targets and return 25.1 fantasy points.
Hooper’s Fantasy Points Differential of -19% suggests that Hooper has room to grow this season. He is currently sitting 8.85 points below his expected fantasy points total of 47.15, suggesting he could see value if he can make better use of his targets. The opinion of Hooper is so low now that in many places, he might actually be found on the waiver wire.
Which potential trade targets should we be looking to sell high on?
QB: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
After coming out the gate hot, with three 30-plus point performances, it was inevitable that Russell Wilson’s fantasy points would drop off somewhat. However, despite two weeks when the average return dropped to 23 fantasy points per game, he is still performing above expectations on the 2020 season.
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Using his passing and rushing attempts, we can calculate Wilson to have an expected fantasy point total of 91.2. However, he is outperforming that by a massive 56.2 fantasy points for a Fantasy Points Differential of 62%. In one QB leagues, where streaming is possible, you should not hesitate to sell Wilson if another owner is looking to obtain a top tier fantasy QB.
Wilson is on a bye in Week 6 but has tough games coming up against the Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, and Los Angeles Rams. One possible option here is to sell high on Wilson heading into or out of his Week 6 bye before then, potentially looking to buy low on him in a few weeks if he struggles in those tougher matchups.
RB: Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons
If you took the gamble of drafting Todd Gurley this season, then you are likely pleased right now. After a stumble out of the gate, Gurley has averaged 19.5 fantasy points over the past three weeks, scoring four touchdowns. Historically, Gurley has been a proficient touchdown scorer, but four in three weeks does not seem sustainable, given the turmoil in Atlanta right now.
Those touchdowns have propelled Gurley to a Fantasy Points Differential of 23%, which suggests he is performing above expectations, but not so significantly that you should be looking to cash in whatever the price. However, with uncertainty in Atlanta and a running back performing above expectation, now is the time to see what value Gurley can return.
WR: Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
In Week 5, Chase Claypool scored 42.6 fantasy points, 15.7 more points than he scored in the first three weeks combined. He also saw 11 targets and pulled in seven catches, both numbers that topped his totals from the first three weeks. Throw into the mix that on 10 touches, Claypool scored touchdowns on 40% of those touches, and you can see just why Claypool is a sell high this week. His Fantasy Points Differential of 106% is unsustainable given he is one of four prominent wide receiver options in that Steelers offense.
With tough games coming up against the Browns, Titans, and Ravens defense, Week 6 is a great opportunity to jump on the hype around Claypool as a sell high, with a view to bringing him back in a potential opportunity to buy low entering Week 9. From Week 9 onwards, Claypool faces a juicy slate of the Cowboys, Bengals, and Jaguars.
TE: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Mike Gesicki is a wonderful tight end in terms of the NFL and the Miami Dolphins offense, but for fantasy football teams, he may be a player we need to stop relying on. Through five weeks, Gesicki has scored in double digits on two occasions and scored less than 10 on the other three, including a 2.5 point performance in Week 4.
The problem with Gesicki is the inconsistency of targets, with five or fewer targets in three games. When he gets targeted, Gesicki performs efficiently, with a Fantasy Points Differential of 19% as he has scored nine points more than his 2020 expected fantasy points.
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