If you’re looking for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl DFS picks, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended FanDuel lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
The Eagles were No. 3 in scoring during the regular season, though that doesn’t do this statistic justice. In 17 games Jalen Hurts has started (including the playoffs and excluding the games he missed in Weeks 16 and 17), Philly has scored 502 points — 29.5 per game.
That’s more than the Chiefs have scored with Patrick Mahomes at the helm this season.
In fact, a Hurts-led offense has scored 21+ points in every home game since Week 2 of last season versus the 49ers — which, in fairness, was Hurts’ sixth career NFL start.
There is a dynamism and explosiveness to this Eagles offense that’s somewhat unique to Super Bowls. It’s led by one of the most talented dual-threat quarterbacks in history, well before he’s reached his prime. And he’s joined by a young WR duo that, if Hurts continues developing as a pocket passer, could become one of the most statistically dominant duos in the league.
We could bet on this team’s running game, including the extraordinarily efficient Miles Sanders. But that would require us to bet on touchdowns. And in DFS, touchdowns are risky propositions.
There is, at times, randomness to which player gets the nod near the goal line, or which guy gets a near-perfect block that sets up a long scamper to the end zone.
So let’s consider the basics for this DFS slate. No need to get cute with a backup RB or a kicker. We want at least three guys with strong 20+ point ceilings, and possibly a fourth if things break perfectly. With that in mind, we should be able to afford at least two exceptional Eagles to anchor a top-heavy DFS lineup.
In Weeks 1 through 4, Clyde-Edwards-Helaire was the Chiefs’ presumed clear-cut No. 1 RB. He racked up an impressive 208 rushing yards on 41 carries (5.1 ypc), 13 receptions for 117 receiving yards, and five total scores.
His fade and ensuing injury are all the more notable given his impending return in Super Bowl 57. On the one hand, he might not earn a single carry as Kansas City rides the hot hand with Isiah Pacheco and, perhaps, some sustained usage for Jerick McKinnon. Or the team might fade the recently slowing McKinnon. Or it might be a true hot-hand backfield.
That last scenario might seem farfetched. Pacheco has earned an outsized role. But what if the Eagles bottle him up? Head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy have worked together for 10 seasons. They know what it takes to win a title, and they assuredly know they have three running backs who, at their best, can help deliver another championship.
MORE: How To Bet on the Super Bowl
This is the primary chaos surrounding the Chiefs’ portion of this DFS slate. While Pacheco might be a popular DFS option, that doesn’t mean he’s safe, particularly at his relatively steep price. And if we don’t go with Pacheco, can we possibly trust McKinnon or the ultra-cheap Edwards-Helaire?
And if we turn away from this backfield entirely, that would leave us with Patrick Mahomes and an array of receivers, ranging from the costly-yet-incredible Travis Kelce to the might-catch-one-pass Justin Watson.
Mahomes seems like a lock, given his ceiling. Our remaining decisions hinge on whether we can/should spend big on Kelce at the risk of undercutting the rest of our lineup.
Top FanDuel DFS Picks for Super Bowl 57
Today, we’re playing FanDuel “MVP Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus four Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($17,000)
The last time a dual-threat QB competed in the Super Bowl was seven years ago when Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers were shut down by an elite Denver Broncos defense. Newton entered the game with 686 rushing yards and 12 rushing scores. By the time Carolina notched its initial first down, Denver already was up 10-0 en route to a 24-10 victory.
The Chiefs’ D doesn’t come close to Denver’s from seven years ago. Hurts should be able to generate enough yards and scores to make him a top-two DFS scorer. The bigger question is whether he or his backfield will get the nod near the goal line.
Flex: QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($17,500)
Of course. This marks Mahomes’ third Super Bowl appearance in four years. The other two opponents had top-10 defenses with respect to points allowed, not unlike Philly. They also had top-five pass rushes.
But the 2022 Eagles D arguably is a cut above both the 2019 San Francisco 49ers and 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mahomes will need to play, perhaps, the best playoff football of his career. I believe he has the talent and personnel to achieve success. It might be choppy at times, but he should net 18+ points.
Flex: WR DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($11,500)
I strongly believe Hurts will feed at least one of his “big three” receivers, and quite possibly two. A.J. Brown costs $1,000 more, and his inclusion would force us to downgrade elsewhere. I’d rather take a shot on the comparable upside of Smith to keep the rest of the lineup intact.
Flex: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs ($8,000)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling probably should be more expensive, especially with Mecole Hardman on the shelf and both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney hobbled.
To be clear, Smith-Schuster and Toney could shine if they’re good to go. But Valdes-Scantling has a solid shot at serving as Mahomes’ No. 1 wideout. At $8,000, that makes him a solid investment.
Flex: WR Skyy Moore, Chiefs ($6,000)
With $6,000 remaining, I’m recommending a hedge for Valdes-Scantling — a capable rookie who simply hasn’t yet rounded into form. Skyy Moore might develop into the Chiefs’ No. 1 WR by 2024. Or he could settle into a longer-term top-three role.
MORE: Pro Football Network’s Super Bowl 57 Picks
Either way, the speedy receiver could get one or two chances to outrun the Eagles’ secondary, especially if KC is playing from behind. He’s one of the least expensive options in this DFS slate — for good reason, and also with solid potential value.
Whatever you decide, good luck.