If you’re playing an Atlanta Falcons vs. Cleveland Browns DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 4, you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Recommended Falcons vs. Browns DFS lineup
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
[bet-promo id=”149453″ ]Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Falcons DFS considerations
This is a fascinating game featuring two teams on the upswing, albeit a very gradual upswing. The Falcons are coming off an almost-miraculous comeback against the Rams, followed by a solid road win in Seattle. Their offense rests largely on four players: Marcus Mariota, Cordarrelle Patterson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts.
We might be able to choose three, depending on pricing. Four might be too much against the similarly top-heavy Browns. Tertiary receivers Olamide Zaccheaus or KhaDarel Hodge would be cheap alternatives if we can’t afford to select six great starters. And candidly, as you already know, these DFS competitions are designed to prevent us from doing this.
So, it might come down to whether we think Mariota will run. In Week 1, he looked electric against the Saints, rushing 12 times for 72 yards and a score. Since then, however, he’s compiled only 20 yards on the ground on 13 carries. At his best, he could be the Falcons’ highest-scoring fantasy player.
Browns DFS considerations
Cleveland has capitalized on a relatively weak September schedule, as well as true No. 1 receiver Amari Cooper and one of the league’s top backfield tandems. Nick Chubb is the guy I thought he’d be last season: a high-volume, highly efficient scoring machine. If he and Kareem Hunt are cooking, it might be tough for Atlanta to keep up.
David Njoku is the X-factor, as his low floor and high ceiling make him both a fascinating DFS investment (and potential heartbreaker). We also can’t entirely ignore Donovan Peoples-Jones, who looked strong in Week 1 before taking a firm backseat in Weeks 2 and 3. If we want a relatively cheap boom/bust option, Peoples-Jones might help round out an overweighted lineup.
But let’s be real here: most DFS competitors will start Chubb or Hunt (or possibly both). We’ll need to pay a lot to snag both. If that’s the direction we go in, we’ll need at least one low-cost flier. As a result, we’ll need to be open to taking at least one kicker and/or D/ST.
Recommended DFS lineup
I’ve revised and re-revised this lineup a half-dozen times or more. Can we afford to put Chubb in our Captain slot? He’s scored four times in his last two games but has only four receptions on the year.
There’s nothing wrong with a highly efficient, volume-friendly running back. However, he needs to score to have a shot at being the No. 1 DFS producer in this game. Atlanta’s faced pretty tough backfields so far. Chubb is a must-start, but I can’t justify spending 28% of our budget on him.
With that in mind, we’ll make the high-floor, solid-ceiling Mariota ($9,600 normally, $14,400 as Captain) our Captain, giving us more than $2,000 extra funds to spend elsewhere. Chubb ($11,200), Cooper ($10,200), and London ($8,800) also belong in this lineup. Patterson ($10,000) does not, as he’s been a lot like Chubb (only four receptions) and needs to score to produce sufficient value. That’s a tough wager to make.
With $5,400 remaining, I’d recommend Younghoe Koo ($3,800), who’s a solid bet for 10+ points, and Harrison Bryant ($600). As of Friday, Njoku is questionable. Even at full health, he’s a boom-bust option in an offense that will run through Chubb, Hunt, and Cooper most weeks.
Bryant is not your typical $600 DFS option. All six of his career touchdowns have come from the 6-yard line or closer. Facing the Falcons’ bottom-10 pass defense (in yards and TDs) that’s also yielding the highest opposing QB completion percentage (71.9%), Bryant has surprising 8+ point appeal.