‘Being Held Back’ — Falcons Analyst Shares Update on Michael Penix Jr.’s Chances in QB1 Battle vs. Tua Tagovailoa

Two years after being drafted in the first round, Michael Penix Jr. is trailing in the quarterback battle with Tua Tagovailoa.

The Atlanta Falcons were fed up with the lack of results. With Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Michael Penix Jr. on the roster, they were hoping that the offense could become one of the most lethal units in the entire league.

Unfortunately, that hasn’t panned out. Now, they’ve made a head coaching change while their potential franchise quarterback is coming back from a torn ACL. As a result, they added Tua Tagovailoa, which has led to an immediate battle for the starting quarterback role.


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Michael Penix Jr. Behind the Eight Ball Against Tua Tagovailoa

Selected in the first round, the Falcons clearly had high hopes for Penix. But injuries have become a major story of his career. After tearing his ACL twice and suffering a fractured right clavicle at Indiana, he hoped to fare better at Washington.

While his time at the program went by without a hitch, the same hasn’t been true for his time in the NFL. After coming on as the starter late in his rookie season, Penix suffered another torn ACL in 2025.

In the meantime, after moving on from Cousins, the new Atlanta regime chose to pursue Tagovailoa to fill the gap. That has stunted Penix in the hierarchy, as he remains locked in a battle with Tagovailoa for the QB1 title.

Matt Chernoff, appearing on the “Ross Tucker Podcast,” broke down how the battle was going in Atlanta. Unfortunately, it wasn’t a pretty sight for Penix, whose status remained a mystery due to the injuries.

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“Not today. Alex Van Pelt, the quarterbacks coach, said as much. Can we figure out if Michael Penix is actually cleared? And they’re gonna be out on the field next Wednesday. If Michael Penix is cleared at the beginning of training camp, yes, competition is on.”

Unfortunately, the reality for the Falcons is far more grim. Instead of the quarterback they invested in as a rookie and spent a first-round pick on, the only option they have at the moment is Tagovailoa, and that could end up deciding the starting job.

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“Van Pelt said as much through the spring and the summer. Tua is doing all the things he can do physically because he’s not injured. Michael is being held back. He’s been in some seven-on-sevens, but still no contact.”

The problem with Penix becomes the storied injury history that has plagued him since his time at the collegiate level. “This is his third ACL injury. Different knee, but I’m sure that’s gonna go into the math on how they decide when they’re going to bring him back.”

As a result, Chernoff concluded, “This is Tua’s job to lose. Tua has a lot of liabilities and a lot of issues that we all know about. But the one thing we do know is A.) He’s healthy, and B.) He’s accurate. Michael’s not healthy, and Michael’s had some accuracy issues. So I think Michael is playing catch-up until we figure out if he’s fully cleared.”

It remains to be seen what the final verdict turns out to be. But with a new head coach, Kevin Stefanski, in the ranks, the investment in Penix isn’t as severe as it would have been under Raheem Morris.

Last year, there was very little separating the two, as Penix ranked No. 26 on PFN’s QB Impact Metrics with a 72.8 score, while the former Pro Bowler was just two spots behind at No. 28 with a 72.1 score.

As a result, the team is going to be even more malleable to the idea of using Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback this season, even if just as a stopgap until the 2027 NFL Draft.

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