Elijah Mitchell’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Elijah Mitchell’s dynasty value has yet to take off while behind Christian McCaffrey --should you be buying a year before he tests free agency?

Elijah Mitchell’s dynasty value has been muted since the acquisition of RB Christian McCaffrey by the San Francisco 49ers. That figures to be the case in 2024 as well, but after next season, Mitchell will have a chance to test the free agent waters.

Should Mitchell be a fantasy football trade target now to get ahead of a potential increase in value long term, or is he best left alone due to the lack of a clear path to viable production?

Elijah Mitchell’s Dynasty Outlook

Mitchell has been more of a theoretical roster filler over the past 18 months than an actual asset, as his only utility has been as McCaffrey insurance, and the 49ers’ star running back has been largely healthy since coming to town (Mitchell has 129 touches in his 16 games over the past two seasons).

Mitchell has one year left on his rookie deal, and we still don’t know much about him at the professional level. We fell in love with his production at Louisiana, and as a back entering his age-26 season with just 355 touches on his NFL résumé, there’s plenty of room for optimism.

Four seasons at Louisiana:

  • 6.2 yards per carry
  • 6.7 yards per touch
  • TD every 12.9 rush attempts

Mitchell seems more likely than not to explore free agency after the 2024 season. McCaffrey is signed through 2025, and San Francisco isn’t likely to pony up more money at the position assuming CMC is in good standing.

That’s where Mitchell’s analysis deserves to start for dynasty managers.

When evaluating Mitchell, you need to be aware of both the good and the bad before making a stance on him. On a positive note, he’s averaged at least 3.0 yards per carry before contact in each season (career: 3.47). That’s not a “nice to have” skill; it’s a must-have given his limitations as a pass catcher (28 catches in 27 games as a pro).

If a team is going to sign up down the road for Mitchell to be their lead two-down RB, he needs to prove proficient in scoring situations.

  • Mitchell’s career conversion rate inside the 10-yard line: 23.3%
    • 2023 RB average: 27.6%
  • Mitchell’s career conversion rate inside the 5-yard line: 28.6%
    • 2023 RB average: 44.3%

The post-contact numbers indicate that regression to the league mean (if not above it) is very possible as the sample size grows. That notion is fueling my optimism in Mitchell’s long-term projection.

Mitchell’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Mitchell land in the dynasty RB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Mitchell lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Bijan Robinson | ATL
2) Christian McCaffrey | SF
3) Breece Hall | NYJ
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND
5) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) Kyren Williams | LAR
8) James Cook | BUF
9) Saquon Barkley | NYG
10) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
11) De’Von Achane | MIA
12) Isiah Pacheco | KC
13) Tony Pollard | DAL
14) Alvin Kamara | NO
15) Javonte Williams | DEN
16) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
17) Josh Jacobs | LV
18) D’Andre Swift | PHI
19) Rachaad White | TB
20) Aaron Jones | GB

21) Zamir White | LV
22) Austin Ekeler | LAC
23) Tyjae Spears | TEN
24) Joe Mixon | CIN
25) Nick Chubb | CLE
26) Najee Harris | PIT
27) David Montgomery | DET
28) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
29) Jaylen Warren | PIT
30) Raheem Mostert | MIA
31) Derrick Henry | TEN
32) Khalil Herbert | CHI
33) James Conner | ARI
34) Kendre Miller | NO
35) Zach Charbonnet | SEA
36) Roschon Johnson | CHI
37) Dameon Pierce | HOU
38) Tank Bigsby | JAX
39) J.K. Dobbins | BAL
40) AJ Dillon | GB

41) Miles Sanders | CAR
42) Alexander Mattison | MIN
43) Gus Edwards | BAL
44) Zack Moss | IND
45) Tyler Allgeier | ATL
46) Chuba Hubbard | CAR
47) Elijah Mitchell | SF
48) Jerome Ford | CLE
49) Antonio Gibson | WAS
50) Devin Singletary | HOU
51) Justice Hill | BAL
52) Darrell Henderson Jr. | FA
53) Jamaal Williams | NO
54) Devin Singletary | HOU
55) Chase Brown | CIN
56) Rashaad Penny | PHI
57) Samaje Perine | DEN
58) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI
59) Deuce Vaughn | DAL
60) D’Onta Foreman | CHI

Should You Trade Mitchell in Dynasty?

Are you considering trading Mitchell? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!

Investing now in a running back with Mitchell’s profile is how I like to build out dynasty rosters, so I’d hold if you have him — and target him if you don’t.

Mitchell’s a low-cost asset that isn’t guaranteed anything moving forward and has no real expectations in the short term. In theory, he can be had from any team in your league — a win-now team wants more production from his roster spot in 2024, while a rebuilding team will look to build out at the QB-WR positions before addressing their backfield.

Patience.

This is where dynasty leagues are different from redraft –- you’re playing the long game. In most cases, future assets are identified as such by your league-mates and carry a significant tax in trade negotiations. However, without a clear path to volume, that isn’t likely to be the perception of Mitchell.

MORE: Dynasty Trade Advice — Saquan Barkley, Chase Brown, Roschon Johnson

Remember that all moves are important. In your quest to acquire Mitchell, you’re essentially buying a penny stock. I have no issue in parting with your WR6 to take a chance or targeting the Mitchell team in a bigger trade and adding the back as a piece to increase your return.

Trading for Mitchell won’t be viewed as a major deal today, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be impactful tomorrow.

With the fantasy football season behind us, why not start preparing for your rookie drafts with our dynasty rookie rankings? Additionally, as you look to improve your team heading into 2024, our dynasty trade calculator can help you find the perfect deal to boost your championship chances.

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