As we recover from the most recent Sunday of NFL football, it’s time to take an early look at the Week 4 betting lines and odds to determine which angles may be best to attack. This article serves a dual purpose of providing betting advice as well as trying to help you make your early pick ’em contest selections.
Let’s examine the angles game by game and give our picks and predictions for Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season.
NFL Week 4 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Sept. 19, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
Dallas Cowboys (-5) at New York Giants
- Moneyline: Cowboys -218; Giants +180
- Total: 44
The Dallas Cowboys put together a remarkable comeback attempt at home against the Baltimore Ravens, but because of the hole they dug themselves prior to that, it was too little, too late. Hopefully, the Cowboys can learn from what they did offensively in that spell to improve their offensive efficiency going forward.
The only thing working well for the Cowboys is special teams, as they rank 28th in overall EPA (expected points added) per game, 17th in offensive EPA per game, and 30th in defensive EPA. If that doesn’t change, they’re going to dig themselves into a very uncomfortable hole.
The New York Giants have been a little better this season, sitting 22nd in net EPA per game, thanks in large part to ranking 14th on the defensive side. Two weeks ago, you would have called this a slam dunk for the Cowboys, and they should still have the superiority to win, but covering five points on the road feels like a lot.
The play here is probably to take the under on a short week, as both offenses have had trouble moving the ball consistently this season.
Prediction: Cowboys 21, Giants 17
Pick: Under 44
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2)
- Moneyline: Vikings +114; Packers -135
- Total: 44
The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers might be the two most impressive teams in the NFL right now. That’s not necessarily because they’re the most pleasing on the eye or the most dominant, but because they appear to have built complete rosters that can compete even if their quarterbacks are not among the very best in the league.
Sam Darnold and Kevin O’Connell have done an excellent job building a safe offense that does what it needs to do well and doesn’t make mistakes. Minnesota’s offense ranks 11th in offensive EPA per game, which is a perfect complement to their defense, which is second in EPA. The Vikings have done an excellent job protecting Darnold and giving him time to throw.
All four of Sam Darnold’s touchdowns against the Texans came on short passes (0-10 air yards), against no blitz, and against man coverage; three were on dropbacks over 2.5 seconds.
Darnold currently leads the NFL in TDs on dropbacks over 2.5 seconds (6).#HOUvsMIN | @Vikings pic.twitter.com/iOR7E9oYQd
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 22, 2024
The Packers have done something very similar over the last two weeks with Malik Willis.
Their offense is 12th in EPA per game, and their defense is ninth. However, they have played two easier games than the Vikings in that stretch. Green Bay has a chance to get Jordan Love back this week, but with potentially limited mobility, it only reinforces that I like the Vikings getting the points here.
Prediction: Vikings 23, Packers 20
Pick: Vikings +2 and +8 as a teaser option
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
- Moneyline: Steelers -122; Colts +102
- Total: 39
The fact that the Indianapolis Colts are 20th in net EPA per game while the Pittsburgh Steelers are eighth, but this line is only 1.5 in favor of Pittsburgh tells me a lot.
The sportsbooks are still not convinced that the 3-0 Steelers are legitimate challengers in the AFC. Their schedule has been fairly soft, facing a limited Atlanta Falcons, the Denver Broncos, and then a limping Justin Herbert-led Los Angeles Chargers.
The Colts were not overly impressive in beating the Chicago Bears, relying heavily on the run game. Pittsburgh has the second-best run defense in the NFL in terms of EPA per game, so it should be hard for them to have similar success. Bizarrely for a team with Justin Fields at quarterback, the Steelers’ run game has been awful through two weeks, and it’s unlikely to get better in this matchup.
This is a game I am going to stay away from. I believe Pittsburgh will win, but I expect it to be close. If the line swings to the Colts, then I would look to take the Steelers getting points, but I cannot see that happening.
Prediction: Steelers 21, Colts 18
Pick: Pass
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Moneyline: Eagles -135; Buccaneers +114
- Total: 44
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers getting totally humiliated by the Broncos was not something I had on my Week 3 bingo card, but that’s what happened.
The Buccaneers have been dealing with a ton of injuries across their roster, and it caught up to them this week. Defensively, they rank 23rd in EPA per game, 15th against the pass, and 30th against the run.
SAQUON BARKLEY 65-YARD TOUCHDOWN.
📺: #PHIvsNO on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/830L0j9R8o— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
That’s a problem when facing a Philadelphia Eagles team that is top 10 in the NFL in both metrics. The final score doesn’t show how much the Eagles dominated the New Orleans Saints this week, averaging 6.9 yards per play compared to 4.0 for the Saints. However, the Eagles are also dealing with an injury-decimated offense, which isn’t going to help their execution issues.
This game is very close in terms of EPA, and with both sides having many injuries, it’s a tough one to call right now. Even the total is right on the line of where I expect this game to be, so this is another one to pass on for now.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 21
Pick: Pass
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Carolina Panthers
- Moneyline: Bengals -230; Panthers +180
- Total: 45
This matchup is going to be Andy Dalton’s revenge game for me. He faces his former team after leading a remarkable performance on Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Panthers’ offensive numbers are still bad overall but isolate just this performance with Dalton under center, and there is much more reason for hope.
The Cincinnati Bengals haven’t played yet in Week 3, and my thoughts might change after that, but for right now, it doesn’t make sense that they’re 5.5-point favorites on the road. They rank 20th in net EPA per game, 20th offensively, and 17th defensively. That doesn’t scream a dominant team that can go in and win by a touchdown on the road.
I’m trying not to buy into one performance from Dalton and the Carolina Panthers, but getting 5.5 points at home is very nice. I would take them +5.5 and tease them up to 11.5. The Bengals very may still win, but dominating is completely different.
Prediction: Bengals 24, Panthers 21
Pick: Panthers +5.5 and +11.5 as a teaser option
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-8)
- Moneyline: Broncos +310; Jets -395
- Total: 38.5
The New York Jets reminded everyone last Thursday that they are a potential force in the AFC, handling their business with ease against the Patriots. The Broncos should be a sterner test of their offense, with Denver’s defense ranked sixth in EPA per game. That matchup of the Jets’ offense and Broncos’ defense being a tough one will make it hard to lay more than a touchdown.
Denver’s offense feasted on an injured Tampa Bay defense, averaging 5.5 yards per play, but they have its defense to thank for the win. The Broncos’ defense stifled the Buccaneers and will look to keep the Jets in check.
It’s worth noting that Denver only scored 12 points in the final three quarters after coming out of the gate hot, so we should temper excitement.
In terms of plays this week, the best option here is to tease the Jets down to -2 because eight points is too much to lay, but I’m also not taking the Broncos.
Prediction: Jets 20, Broncos 17
Pick: Jets -2 in a teaser
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-1)
- Moneyline: Rams +102; Bears -122
- Total: 41
This is one of those matchups where you look at it, throw your hands up in the air, and make a very confused-sounding grumble.
For a long time on Sunday, the Los Angeles Rams looked lost on offense while they just about clung on defensively. They burst into life in the final 20 minutes of the game, scoring 20 points and clinching the win. LA’s offense is 10th in terms of EPA per game, but they face a tough test this week in Chicago.
The only reason the Bears are 1-2 and have even been in contests is their defense, which ranks third in the league in EPA per play. Their offense, contrastingly, is the third-worst unit in the league in EPA. Chicago struggled on the ground against Jonathan Taylor, and Kyren Williams is also an impressive runner, which could be the difference.
In this matchup, strength meets strength, and weakness meets weakness. Usually, I would lean to the team whose strength is defense, but the Bears showed some vulnerability in their run defense this week. Ultimately, there is enough uncertainty here to pass and look elsewhere for a play.
Prediction: Rams 21, Bears 20
Pick: Pass
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +170; Texans -205
- Total: 44
If you had asked me to pick this game 10 days ago, I would have said the Houston Texans all day, every day. But after two turgid offensive showings, there is now some doubt.
Although the Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t been good through two games, their EPA, on average, is better than the Texans in terms of net, offense, and defense.
Sure, the Texans have faced two very good defenses in the first three weeks, but that doesn’t fully excuse how out of sync they’ve looked. I don’t trust Jacksonville after losing to the Browns in Week 2, so ultimately, it’s just a lean. However, Houston might actually have more issues to fix through three weeks.
Prediction: Texans 21, Jaguars 20
Pick: Lean Jaguars +4.5
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-1)
- Moneyline: Saints +100; Falcons -120
- Total: 44
The Atlanta Falcons very much have the feel of a team that will cause their fan base a lot of angst this season. They have now been involved in three one-score games, coming out on the wrong side of two of them. Although they’ve played up to challenge to the Eagles and Chiefs in the last two weeks, they still only rank in the middle of the pack in terms of EPA per game and other metrics.
The Saints still lead the league in terms of net EPA per game, with the top-ranked offense supplemented by top-10-ranked defense and special-teams units. Week 3 was fairly ugly, suggesting that maybe teams will catch up to New Orleans as they see more film on the offense.
The Falcons haven’t had a game go over 43 points this season, so the under is in play here. However, the Saints have also topped this number on their own in two of the first three weeks. This is another game that I’m staying away from.
Prediction: Saints 24, Falcons 20
Pick: Pass
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (-10)
- Moneyline: Patriots +400; 49ers -535
- Total: 40.5
The New England Patriots were woeful on Thursday after being competitive in the first two weeks. Some of that might have been due to a rookie defensive-minded head coach playing in his first-ever Thursday Night Football game against a veteran quarterback with tons of experience.
Nevertheless, it has raised serious question marks about their ability to be competitive going forward.
The Rams’ win probability was as low as 3.2% with 4:14 remaining in the fourth quarter in their comeback win over the 49ers.
Matthew Stafford led the Rams on two scoring drives in the final three minutes, with both drives leading to points in under a minute.#SFvsLA | @RamsNFL pic.twitter.com/KM3XvcNQIE
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 22, 2024
The trouble is that the 49ers don’t look much better. Yes, they averaged 6.5 yards per play against the Rams, but they failed to put them away and capitulated in the fourth quarter.
I don’t expect the Patriots to stage the same roaring comeback, but laying 10 points with the 49ers, who have struggled twice in a row, is a lot. San Francisco’s defense is ranked 26th in EPA per game, so it shouldn’t stifle New England in the same way the Jets did. That puts the over in play here, as well as taking the 49ers teased down to -4.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Patriots 20
Pick: Over 40.5 and 49ers -4 in a teaser
Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
- Moneyline: Cowboys -425; Chargers +330
- Total: 39.5
There was a time in recent years when it felt like the Chargers were built to handle the Chiefs, but they’ve still lost the last five contests and eight of the last 10. However, six of those eight losses were one-score games, including three of the last four.
If Justin Herbert were playing at full steam, then that would be a potential trend to watch going forward in this game. The problem is that it seems very unlikely that he’ll be able to play anywhere close to 100%, if at all.
Therefore, a 10+ point win for the Chiefs is very much in play here. I always hate laying more than a touchdown, so I will also look to have KC -2.5 in a teaser. If Herbert is ruled out, this line could shoot over 10, so if you want it, grab it early.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Chargers 13
Pick: Chiefs -8.5 and -2.5 in a teaser
Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals (-5)
- Moneyline: Commanders +195; Giants -238
- Total: 49.5
The Arizona Cardinals are a confounding team to figure out. They looked excellent offensively against the Bills and Rams but then stalled at home against the Detroit Lions. Yet, Arizona is still eighth in offensive EPA per game and 10th overall, which should be enough to get past the Washington Commanders.
Washington is 23rd in net EPA per game, second in offensive EPA, and second from last when it comes to its defense. They will have a spotlight shined on them in prime time on Monday Night Football, which could tilt this line either way.
I would grab the Cardinals now at -5 before this line moves closer to a touchdown. If the line gets to seven or eight points, then Arizona in a teaser becomes a tempting option.
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Commanders 21
Pick: Cardinals -5
Cleveland Browns (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders
- Moneyline: Browns -115; Raiders -105
- Total: 44
This is another one of those shrug-and-look-confused games. The Raiders beat the Ravens a week ago and then got humiliated by Dalton’s Panthers. The Cleveland Browns, meanwhile, beat the Jaguars on the road and then let Daniel Jones beat them at home.
Make of all of that what you will.
These two teams are both in the bottom seven in terms of EPA per game, and neither is getting any of my money because I don’t trust them at all. I will back the Browns to come out on top in a pick ’em contest, but it really could be a coin flip.
Prediction: Browns 23, Raiders 20
Pick: Pass
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Bills +114; Ravens -135
- Total: 45.5
If I were writing this after three quarters of the Ravens’ Week 3 game in Dallas, the analysis would feel very different. However, Baltimore has now allowed two ridiculous fourth-quarter comebacks in the last two weeks.
In Week 2, the Raiders scored 13 unanswered points in the final 10 minutes, and in Week 3, the Cowboys scored 19. No lead will feel safe with the Ravens in the coming weeks.
Similarly, it’s hard to know what to make of Buffalo. They just about got past the Cardinals in Week 1, and then they flattened the Dolphins thanks to offensive mistakes from their opponent and Tua Tagovailoa’s injury. The Bills’ EPA numbers through two weeks tell you they are elite, but the eye test doesn’t.
This has the making of a one-score game, but which way is hard to call. The best way to attack this game, from my perspective, is a teaser, grabbing the Bills +8.5 before the line potential moves in their favor if they handle their business on Monday Night Football.
Prediction: Bills 23, Ravens 21
Pick: Bills +8.5 in a teaser
Tennessee Titans (-1) at Miami Dolphins
- Moneyline: Titans -112; Dolphins -108
- Total: 37.5
Well, when the NFL decided to put this on Monday Night Football, they didn’t expect it to be Will Levi vs. either Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley. That first sentence alone tells you all you need to know about why you should not bet on this game.
The numbers for Miami are awful through two weeks, and the Titans aren’t much better. Stay well away from the moneyline and spread.
The total is very low, but neither team has much offensively. Both are average or better units defensively, so this should be a low-scoring game. If you want to bet something, go under on the total.
Prediction: Titans 13, Dolphins 9
Pick: Under 37.5
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-4)
- Moneyline: Seahawks +164; Lions -198
- Total: 47.5
The Seattle Seahawks are a very unconvincing 3-0 with tight wins over the Broncos and Patriots before blowing out a Dolphins team that has had its heart ripped out. Facing three poor offenses has seen them sit atop the charts in terms of defensive EPA per game, but that is paired with a 19th-ranked offense.
This week, Seattle faces a Lions team that is hard to figure out. They are a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of EPA and have yet to look completely convincing.
This game could tell us a lot about the trajectories of both teams. The Seahawks haven’t had a true test, and a loss for the Lions would raise serious questions about their credentials.
Detroit is the way I lean here, simply because Seattle’s defensive numbers are inflated by the opponents. Take that away, and you’re talking about two middle-of-the-pack teams.
That tends to lean towards the home team, but I don’t want to lay the four points. If it gets to three or below, then the Lions become the play.
Prediction: Lions 24, Seahawks 20
Pick: Lean Lions -4 and Under 47.5