Early NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Nearly 500 Touches for Saquon Barkley?

If you're betting on 2022 NFL games -- whether props, point spreads, or moneylines -- here are our early NFL Week 11 predictions and picks.

Here’s an early look at our NFL Week 11 predictions and picks for all 14 games, with the Buccaneers, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Seahawks on byes. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Week 11 Predictions and Picks

Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.

What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.

With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed.

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

  • Date: Thursday, Nov. 17
  • Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET

What a difference a win makes. If not for a seemingly miraculous comeback against the Cowboys on Sunday, Green Bay would have entered Thursday on a six-game losing streak and nearing elimination from postseason contention. Instead, backed by second-round rookie Christian Watson and a rebounding backfield, they’re 4-6 and only 1.5 games shy of the 7 seed.

For Tennessee, it’s still Derrick Henry or bust. They barely got past the Broncos. All six of their wins have come against anemic-to-middling offenses. I expect the Packers to build off their Week 10 turnaround and expose one of the league’s most statistically generous pass defenses.

Against-the-spread prediction: Packers
Moneyline winner: Packers

Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Chicago Bears

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

It’s a curious betting line. While their respective records suggest the Falcons, Chicago’s Justin Fields has ascended to almost mythic levels. In the last two weeks, he has a combined 290 passing yards on 29 completions and 325 rushing yards on 28 carries.

It might be tough to find many other examples in the Super Bowl era of a QB doing more on the ground than through the air in back-to-back games. Atlanta’s surrendered the third-most rushing TDs (13). I don’t think they’ll have an answer for Fields on Sunday.

Against-the-spread prediction: Bears
Moneyline winner: Bears

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Buffalo Bills (-9.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

As shared last week, I’m a sucker for betting on heavily favored home teams. Despite their shocking loss to Minnesota (not that it was shocking, but the way they lost certainly was), I expect Buffalo to rebound with a vengeance.

MORE: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings

Credit Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and the better-than-expected Jacoby Brissett for helping Cleveland score the NFL’s 10th-most points per game. But with a defense yielding the second-most points, they will be overmatched in this one.

Against-the-spread prediction: Bills
Moneyline winner: Bills

Indianapolis Colts (+9.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

I’m a sucker for betting on heavily favored road teams.

No, no — just wanted to see if you’re paying attention. I actually like the 4-5-1 Colts making Philly sweat more than July in Philly. A new coach with nothing to lose, a healthy Jonathan Taylor, and a reinstalled Matt Ryan? Not to mention one of the league’s stingiest run defenses?

As incredible as the Eagles are, Indy has underperformed more often than not. On paper, their personnel is good enough to make a playoff run. While I’d still bet on Philadelphia to win, this one could come down to the final three minutes.

Against-the-spread prediction: Colts
Moneyline winner: Eagles

New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. New York Jets

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

When these teams last met in Week 8, the 3-4 Patriots had just been embarrassed by the Bears at home on Monday Night Football. They proceeded to shut down the Breece Hall-less Jets backfield, forcing Zach Wilson to try to win through the air. Three interceptions later, Wilson came up short.

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I expect a similar approach in this one, with New York’s impressive defense bending and eventually breaking against Rhamondre Stevenson and perhaps a few more Nick Folk field goals. Maybe not the prettiest game, but another impressive win for a Patriots unit gearing up for make-or-break matchups against the Vikings and Bills.

Against-the-spread prediction: Patriots
Moneyline winner: Patriots

New Orleans Saints (-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

Each week I ask the same question — when will New Orleans bench Andy Dalton? And then I wonder whether they’re content to run out the clock on a dismal season, capitalize at the draft, and then return in 2023 with a newly installed franchise QB, improved receiving corps, and some needed help for Alvin Kamara.

We can talk about Cooper Kupp’s injury, Matthew Stafford’s regression, and the Rams’ generally irrelevant backfield. But the big question is whether the Saints’ offense can get back on track. I don’t think it’s possible with Dalton at the helm. A switch would make the Saints an easy favorite, and I’m banking on a switch.

Against-the-spread prediction: Saints
Moneyline winner: Saints

New York Giants (-3.5) vs. Detroit Lions

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

I’m going to hedge on this one. If the line moves to 2.5, I might not. We’ll see.

For now, know this: Saquon Barkley is on pace for 429 touches, including 374 carries. That’s not normal or helpful, especially for a bell cow coming off of two straight injury-plagued seasons. If the Giants go deep in the playoffs, Barkley’s touch total could hit 500, which would give him the fifth-most single-season touches in NFL history.

This isn’t normal, and for a mostly one-dimensional Giants offense, this is a bright yellow flag. The Lions have more weapons, and as we witnessed against Chicago, they’re not ready to fold. I’m picking New York to eke out a victory.

Against-the-spread prediction: Lions
Moneyline winner: Giants

Baltimore Ravens (-11.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

A steep spread for a Ravens offense that’s stalled without many of their top playmakers. Can Carolina keep this one close?

Probably not. Baker Mayfield is expected to return to the helm, and D’Onta Foreman’s heroics might not matter against a tough Ravens run defense (and in the face of a likely negative game script). Assuming Mayfield is forced to throw more than Carolina wants him to, this game could get ugly by the third quarter.

Against-the-spread prediction: Ravens
Moneyline winner: Ravens

Houston Texans (+2.5) vs. Washington Commanders

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

Every week, I get to share one of my favorite 2022 stats — the Texans just keep getting it done. In every game this season, they’ve managed to lead (four times), be tied (once), or trail by a touchdown (four times). Not even the Eagles could bury this 1-7-1 squad.

MORE: NFL Coaches on the Hot Seat After Week 10

I’m leaning toward Houston against the hit-or-miss Commanders, whose middling-at-best backfield complements a hit-or-miss passing attack led by bridge starter Taylor Heinicke. The Texans’ offense — led by rookie standout Dameon Pierce — should prevail.

Against-the-spread prediction: Texans
Moneyline winner: Texans

Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET

Ugh. I’ve bet on Denver too much this year, continuing to believe that Russell Wilson will turn the corner. He hasn’t. He probably won’t until 2023 (one would hope).

This is a battle between an elite defense with a dysfunctional offense and a capable offense with a dysfunctional defense. The unstoppable force versus the immovable object. Or rather, the easily stopped force versus the easily movable object.

I’ll be on offense in this rough contest.

Against-the-spread prediction: Raiders
Moneyline winner: Raiders

Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET

Minnesota found a way to win, and Dallas found many ways to lose. But in what might be the game of the week, we’re going to see two teams with stellar offenses with quick-strike abilities.

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How unusual is it that an 8-1 team is an underdog at home? Maybe it’s because the Vikings have won by eight points or less during their seven-game winning streak. I’ll take them to win another close one, with Dalvin Cook and T.J. Hockenson stepping up when it matters most.

Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
Moneyline winner: Vikings

Pittsburgh Steelers (+5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET

I took a leap this past weekend in my fantasy league, starting Kenny Pickett over Justin Herbert. It worked out. And now, I have to make a similar decision in Week 11. Surprisingly, I’m leaning Pickett unless Keenan Allen returns for LA.

Although the stats don’t show it — and at times, his rookie decision-making hasn’t helped — Pickett has stellar potential. He also has three exceptional receivers (including his underrated tight end) and, quite possibly, a backfield that’s finally turning a corner.

No doubt, the Bengals could blow away Pittsburgh, even without Ja’Marr Chase. But I like how the Steelers moved the ball against the Saints and believe they have the personnel to go toe-to-toe with the more injury-damaged Bengals.

Against-the-spread prediction: Steelers
Moneyline winner: Bengals

Los Angeles Chargers (+6.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 20
  • Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET

This spread looks about right, but it could change a bit this week as we get more word on the availability of the Chargers’ Keenan Allen and the Chiefs’ JuJu Smith-Schuster.

MORE: 32 Unsung NFL Team MVP Awards Halfway Through the 2022 NFL Season

For now, let’s call it what it is: LA is reeling, and Kansas City is riding high. This is a very different dynamic than when they met earlier this season. The Chargers cannot compete with one of the league’s best teams when they’re down two game-changing wideouts.

Against-the-spread prediction: Chiefs
Moneyline winner: Chiefs

Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

  • Date: Monday, Nov. 21
  • Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET

As we await word on Kyler Murray’s availability, we can appreciate that as good as the 49ers technically are, that hasn’t fully translated on the field. Losing to the Falcons by two touchdowns? Losing to the Chiefs at home by three touchdowns?

But in fairness, Christian McCaffrey — and more recently, a returning Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel — make San Francisco one of the toughest 5-4 teams in years, especially considering their frequently stifling defense.

Arizona’s defensive struggles reinforce the strong possibility that the Niners’ offense will continue to click. An eight-plus-point victory seems likely.

Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
Moneyline winner: 49ers

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